Many thanks to Nick for allowing his Dubai World Cup column to be posted here.
I think this is going to appear in The Sporting Life Weekender edition. Keep in mind that it's written for a UK audience.
**************
THE JAPANESE TEAM LOOK STRONGEST
Have you ever wondered why the Americans call their biggest baseball tournament 'The World Series' when no foreign teams are allowed to compete? If you ask an American they invariably say something like "Hey, what do you mean no foreign teams compete? The Canadians take part and they're about as foreign as you can get!" (Americans are always making fun of Canadians and vice versa).
Maybe the same sort of thinking was behind the recent move to try and re-brand the Breeders' Cup as 'The World Thoroughbred Championships' despite the fact that only Britain, Ireland, America, France and, okay yes, Canada normally take part.
In fact there's just one race-meeting on the planet which comes close to meriting the title of 'The World Thoroughbred Championships' and that is the Dubai World Cup fixture run this Saturday. Horses from no less than thirteen different countries are due to compete.
Strangely enough, the big Dubai meeting has been a vcitim of its own success in attracting foreign runners from a punting standpoint. The incredible diversity of the runners has presented an almost insurmountable challenge to those of us wanting to make sense of the form.
This year however I've made an enormous effort to come to grips with the foreign form. I've spent the best part of a week using a battery of foreign speed rating databases that I've developed for the purpose and called on the help of several people to help me access and process the mountain of data. The result is that for the first time I feel I actually fully understand the form for this unique race-meeting. And, if I'm right, I see some very attractive bets.
The biggest overall impression I got from ploughing through the form is that the Japanese team are very strong. They have runners in every race and look set to take at least two, just as they did last year.
DUBAI WORLD CUP
INVASOR 43
PREMIUM TAP 43
DISCREET CAT 43
FORTY LICKS 42
KANDIDATE 42
VERMILION 39
STORM MAYOR 39
BULLISH LUCK 39
The first thing to decide about this race is whether Kandidate is going to be allowed a soft lead.
When nothing took him on here last time he cruised home and ran a seriously fast time. Here, his obvious early challenger Discreet Cat will surely be held up to get the trip as it's the longest he's ever tried and his stamina is questionable. So I can't entirely discount the possibility that Kandidate will score a huge upset win. But my gut feel is that his big name rivals will swamp him in the closing stages however slow they allow him to go.
I can't have Discreet Cat because smart as he is you don't win the world's most valuable race with a doubtful stayer that's had an interrupted preparation. The last seven winners of this race had a prep but he missed his.
The likely modest early pace is a concern for Premium Tap. He's by Pleasant Tap, who is probably the most stoutly bred sire in the top 100 in America. His best US form has all been off a strong early pace at nine furlongs plus, and he stayed the mile and a half well when winning Saudi Arabia's biggest race from a strong field last time.
Bullish Luck would need to run faster than he ever has to take this. That hardly seems likely as he's having his first run on dirt here as an eight year old.
The former trainer of Storm Mayor said he wouldn't be able to get him fit in time for this race.
So I'm not going to bet that his new trainer will do any better - especially seeing that the horse's three big wins have all been at 12f plus - two of them on turf.
Vermilion's best run was a fourth in the Japan Cup and a lot more is needed here.
If any horse is going to benefit from the slow early pace besides candidate it will surely be Argentine horse of the year Forty Licks. Three of his four biggest wins have been off a very slow early pace. When he won a 10f Group 2 on the dirt at La Plata Forty Licks 'walked' the first mile in 1:39.71 before blasting through the last two furlongs in 24.53. When he won the Argentine Derby the early pace was so sluggish the final time was about six seconds slower than it would have been in a truly run race.
I think Forty Licks' trainer is right to excuse his first dirt loss in eight tries to Premium Tap in Riyadh on stamina grounds. Yes he has won a couple of very slow run races at a mile and a half, but he's clearly much better over shorter trips like this.
There's no question that Invasor is a brilliant champion. As his trainer says "he always finds a way to win". But he faces a serious rival in Forty Licks. And there still remains the concern that his only lifetime loss in eleven starts was that moderate fourth in the UAE Derby on this course last year. Maybe he was unfit that day, however it's also possible that he doesn't like the lightning fast surface at Nad Al Sheba.
There are many possible outcomes to this race. Maybe Discreet Cat will stay and be fit. Perhaps Premium Tap will handle the likely slow early pace. Or it could be that Kandidate will steal it from the front. But in my minds eye I see Forty Licks taking over from Kandidate with a quarter mile to run and sprinting to the line with Invasor in hot pursuit. So I say bet Forty Licks to win and take out a couple of insurance bets in case he runs second to Invasor or Kandidate does go all the way.
RECOMMENDED BETS
3 points win Forty Licks
1 point win Kandidate
Plus a 1 point straight forecast: Invasor to beat Forty Licks
DUBAI DUTY FREE
DAIWA MAJOR 42
MYSTICAL 42
POMPEII RULER 42
STORMY RIVER 42
MIESQUE'S APPROVAL 41
ADMIRE MOON 40
KAPIL 40
LAVA MAN 40
SEIHALI 40
BEST NAME 39
ENGLISH CHANNEL 39
FORMAL DECREE 39
BAD GIRL RUNS 38
IRRIDESCENCE 37
LINNGARI 37
FLASHY WINGS 36
This is a red hot race. And it's clear the Japanese are dead set on winning it as they're running the two highest rated horses in their country in Admire Moon and Daiwa Major. They're officially dead level but Daiwa Major beat Admire Moon a length and a quarter in the valuable Tenno Sho. In addition Daiwa Major has won three Group 1's while Admire Moon has lost all four Group 1 races he's contested. Besides, it seems clear that Daiwa Major is more effective over this distance than Admire Moon whose three biggest wins and last seven runs have all been over 10f plus.
Daiwa Major has won the last three times he's run 8-10f, including two Group 1's. He looks the one they all have to beat here.
The Indian Champion Mystical broke course records at a mile and a mile and three quarters in his home country and ran a humungously fast time to score over this course three weeks ago. He's won ten in a row and is clearly a world class horse.
Pompeii Ruler may very well be the best horse in Australia. He won a big 10f G1 just three weeks ago. He ran second on his racecourse debut and lost his comeback race in a sprint off a three month break. But if a couple of photo finishes had gone the other way he'd have won nine of his other ten starts.
Stormy River is a brilliant miler when things fall his way. But he's only won one of his seven Group 1 tries and his stamina for the extra furlong is questionable.
Miesque's Approval has won only one of his last 14 starts at 8.5f or more but five of his last six at shorter trips. His speed ratings are lower at longer trips than over a mile too.
Lava Man has run appallingly all four times he's run outside of his home base of California, getting beat 14 lengths plus every time. I just don't think he's up to beating this class of competition on turf either.
It basically looks like a three way choice between Daiwa Major, Mystical and Pompeii Ruler. I slightly prefer the Japanese horse to the other two but want to have savers on them;
RECOMMENDED BETS
2 points win Daiwa Major
1 point win Mystical
1 point win Pompeii Ruler
DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC
POP ROCK 41
COLLIER HILL 41
RED ROCKS 41
LAVEROCK 41
QUIJANO 40
YOUMZAIN 40
ORACLE WEST 39
HOST 39
BELLAMY CAY 38
HONEY RYDER 38
SIR PERCY 38
SUSHISAN 38
VENGEANCE OF RAIN 38
OBRIGADO 37
TAWQEET 37
BEST ALIBI 36
Watch the video of the Arima Kinen run on Christmas Eve and it's hard not to get caught up in the obvious and vocal excitement of the crowd as the Champion Deep Impact makes a huge move to surge past the field. But tear your eyes away and you'll notice a tall, long striding horse working his way through the pack to emerge second best. This is Pop Rock, an amazingly consistent and high class performer.
Pop Rock found the slow pace of Australia racing a problem when losing the Caulfield Cup over 12f in a bunch finish. But the two miles of the Melbourne Cup brought his stamina into play and he lost by a mere short. He won four races in a row of increasing class last season, beat the brilliant Daiwa Major into third when chasing home Deep Impact and went under in a photo over an inadequate 11f to the very smart Admire Moon last month. He looks to have a big chance of scoring a second successive win for Japan in this race.
Old Collier Hill must be setting some sort of a record here as he has now run in seven different countries in his last seven starts. He might just be good enough but it's hard to escape the image of him being so easily beaten by the Japanese horse Hearts Cry last year when he's facing a similar rival from Japan this time around.
Red Rocks is interesting. But the Breeders' Cup Turf that he won narrowly was hardly a vintage renewal. This is a lot tougher.
Laverock's big runs have all come when he's been fresher than he will be here. This leaves Quijano and Youmzain on my speed ratings as the other likely contenders
It's hard to dismiss Quijano as he's now won ten in a row but I think Youmzain may well be a bit better. Youmzain got unbalanced on the home turn when losing at Ascot. His only loss in five other starts at this distance or more was when he lost by half a length to Rail Link, the Arc winner.
On balance, Pop Rock looks the best bet of the meeting. But I've got to have a saver on Youmzain.
RECOMMENDED BETS
5 Points win Pop Rock
2 points win Youmzain
DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN
THOR'S ECHO 42
NATIONAL COLOUR 42
NIGHTMARE AFFAIR 41
FRIENDLY ISLAND 40
KELLYS LANDING 39
SEEKING THE BEST 39
THAJJA 39
MARCHAND D'OR 39
BISHOP COURT HILL 39
AREYOUTALKINGTOME 39
AGNES JEDI 38
HARVARD AVENUE 37
TERRIFIC CHALLENGE 37
BOUNTY QUEST 36
SALAAM DUBAI 36
The key horse in this race just has to be South Africa's Champion Sprinter and joint horse of the year National Colour. This mare has got blazing early speed and routinely runs amazing times. So anything that chases her early looks certain to be fried. That means the front-running pair Friendly Island and Bishop Court Hill are in trouble.
The big question with National Colour is 'will she last home?'. She was cut back to shorter trips after tiring late to get caught on her racecourse debut at six furlongs. She again tired late to get beat seven lengths into fifth when stepped up to six furlongs again on her first try in stakes company and once more reverted to shorter distances for her next four starts. However it does appear she's developed a bit of stamina with age as she managed to go all the way to take South Africa's two biggest six furlong sprints on her final two outings in her home country. In the last of them though, the Mercury, she looked really tired in the last furlong and struggled home on raw courage to score by a length after quickly scooting to a huge lead in the early stages.
I think it's significant that the only course record National Colour has set was over five and a half furlongs. I suspect that is her optimum distance.
National Colour proved that she handles dirt when scoring at Nad Al Sheba last month. But that was over five furlongs. Dirt is a more tiring surface than turf, so my gut feel is she's going to get caught somewhere in the last furlong. And the two most likely candidates to do the catching are Thor's Echo and Nightmare Affair who finished first and third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Thor's Echo is a stuffy horse who always needs a run to get him fit. He's never hit the first two or got within three lengths of the winner the six times he's been off for more than six weeks. However he's won four of the eight sprints he's contested with a more recent run and run big races in all his four losses. One of them was this race last year where he finished second.
Given his record, it was clearly a smart move to give Thor's Echo a prep race over this course three weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this.
Tempting as it is to go with Thor's Echo I do slightly prefer Nightmare Affair who will start at bigger odds.
If any horse is going to benefit from the searching pace set by National Colour and the fact this race is run on a straight course it is Nightmare Affair.
Nightmare Affair often gets rolling too late in his races and frequently gets forced wide or held up in traffic when trying to deliver his challenge. Around a turn he can only ever be guaranteed a clear run in a tiny field. So it looks hugely significant that he has won the last five times he's run in fields of six or less. On this straight track the field fans out across the course, leaving plenty of room for a horse like Nightmare Affair to manouver. And with National Colour doing her best to set the race up for a closer this looks a golden opportunity for Nightmare Affair to gain his revenge on Thor's Echo. I see the pair going 1-2 and have structured my bets accordingly.
RECOMMENDED BETS
2 points win Nightmare Affair
1 points win Thor's Echo
Reverse Computer Straight Forecast on the same two horses.
UAE DERBY
EU TAMBEM 41
ASIATIC BOY 41
FOLK 39
TRAFFIC GUARD 37
BARTOLA 37
RALLYING CRY 37
VICTORY TETSUNI 36
JOE LOUIS 35
DAY PASS 34
GREETINGS 34
SEAL POINT 32
ADIL 29
JACK JUNIOR 28
LIMEHOUSE 27
Front running speedball Asiatic Boy is going to be a warm favourite here. But I'm more than happy to take him on despite his three runaway wins at Nad Al Sheba.
Even Asiatic Boy's trainer expressed concerns about the horse's ability to get the nine furlongs of this race before he won over the trip last time. Okay yes he did win but he was able to get away with setting a very moderate early pace of 48.38 seconds for the first half mile. When he had to go three fifths of a second quicker to get the early lead over a mile on his previous start he backed up to run the final furlong in more than 13 seconds despite being ridden out. That's not the way a genuine stayer runs.
The second thing I dislike about Asiatic Boy is that he has now run three very fast races in a row, the fastest and most recent being just 30 days ago. He's therefore a major candidate to 'bounce'. Add in the fact that he faces more than twice as many rivals as he did last time (and is therefore most unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead) and I boot him into touch with some confidence.
If Asiatic Boy is likely to bounce then the filly Folk is near certain to do so. She has just earned the two biggest speed ratings I've ever given a three year old filly this early in the season. The closest to this situation I can recall was when Wince ran two huge times to take the Fred Darling and the 1000 Guineas before running unplaced in the Irish 1000 Guineas three weeks later. I'm confident something similar will happen here. But equally convinced that Folk will 'bounce back' to take the Kentucky Oaks in May as I rate her four lengths ahead of the fastest American fillies.
All this leaves Eu Tambem looking something of a slam dunk to score. After all his only loss in eight outings was by half a length to a smart older horse in a Group 2 race just five days after he turned three. (Imagine a three year old running second in the Winter Derby but push the race back to January and jack it up from a Group 3 to a Group 2).
Last time out Eu Tambem powered away from a smart field to win in seriously fast time over 10f on this course. You can argue that the cut back to 9f presents a problem. But he broke his maiden in pretty fast time a year ago over 5.5f and has won G2 races over 7.5f and a mile.
I see Eu Tamben coming home by a wide margin here and make him as good a bet as Pop Rock.
SUGGESTED BETS
5 points win Eu Tambem
GODOLPHIN MILE
FUSAICHI RICHARD 40
SPRING AT LAST 40
COURT MASTERPIECE 40
NELORE PORA 39
IMPOSSIBLE SKI 39
KILLYBEGS 39
MERLERAULT 39
MULLINS BAY 37
PAROLE BOARD 37
SINGING POET 37
DIXIE MEISTER 36
GHARIR 36
BOSTON LODGE 35
JACK SULLIVAN 35
VORTEX 35
This is a tricky race to analyse as eleven of the runners have at one time or another earned speed ratings of 39 or higher (the four I've listed plus Boston Lodge, Vortex, Mullins Bay and Jack Sullivan). However, I think the speed ratings have it right.
Japan won this race last year, and the obvious choice on form and the clock this year is Japan's Champion two year old of 2005 Fusaichi Richard. He won four in a row at two and ran second by a half length to Admire Moon, now Japan's highest rated horse, on his three year old debut. Next time out he ran second by a neck to Meisho Samson who took the Japanese 2000 Guineas on his next start. After this Fusaichi Richard disappointed, mostly over longer trips. But he bounced back to his very best two runs back when cut to seven furlongs. On that ocasion he took the very valuable Hanshin Cup from many of Japan's top milers. He may well have bounced off that big effort when running below form less than three weeks later. I say this because Fusaichi's record suggests he's best fresh. So far he has won four of the seven times that he's come into a race of nine furlongs or less off a break of more than three weeks as he does here. Two of his losses were those close seconds to a pair of Japan's top horses. The other was his first run on dirt where he only lost by a couple of lengths and ran fast enough to suggest he can handle this surface (which he's certainly bred for).
Court Masterpiece ran a clunker the only time he was asked to run on dirt in this race last year.
I could spend pages dissecting the form of the other runners. But it seems to me that the speed ratings are correct in pointing to Spring At Last as being the big danger to Fusaichi Richard. He too seems to go best fresh and has won two of the three times he's come into a race of a break longer than five weeks, with his sole loss being a fast finishing second in a Grade 1. A mile is his optimum distance too (he earned his biggest speed rating over the trip).
I suspect the form of this race will be confusing enough to ensure that both Fusaichi Richard and Spring At Last start at a fair price, so I say bet them both.
RECOMMENDED BETS
2 points win Fusaichi Richard
2 points win Spring At Last
ABOUT THE RATINGS
One point on my ratings equals a length per mile.
The Dubai, Irish, German, French and British speed ratings are those I have made myself using software that I've had developed for the purpose. The Argentine speed ratings are those produced by
www.revistapalermo.com converted to my own scale. The Hong Kong speed ratings are based on the standard times and class pars to be found on the Hong Kong Jockey Club's site -
http://www.hkjc.com/english/index.asp. The Japanese speed ratings are based on some rough and ready standard times I compiled plus the official Japanese handicap ratings to be found on
http://japanracing.jp/. The South African speed ratiings are based on track records to be found on
http://www.sahorseracing.com/racecourses.asp, the results from
http://www.aro.co.za plus my experience of making speed ratings when I used to live in South Africa. The Australian speed ratings are based on track records plus the form carried on
www.expertform.com. The Brazilian and Saudi ratings are based on little more than guesswork, raw times and handicap ratings. The American and Canadian speed ratings are those produced by Cary Fotias in New York converted to my own scale. You can learn more about Cary's ratings by visiting
www.equiform.com.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to take this opportunity to thank Cynde Neal of the American Jockey Club Information Systems for providing me with the form for all the runners. Thanks are also due
to the Emirates Racing Association for allowing me to use the data. Mr Ozaku Keisuke of the Japan Racing Association was also very helpful in supplying the lifetime form of all the Japanese
runners. I would not have been able to make the speed ratings or access much of the data I used without the help of John Swetye who produced the mountain of software that enabled me to do this. Finally I'm grateful to Cary Fotias of
www.equiform.com for allowing me to use his speed
ratings.
