Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by storyline

Honestly I'd be more inclined to embrace the possibility that someone from a drug cartel was involved (washing money) before whale involvement.

Is El Paso close to Ruidoso?

[storyline]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Thanks! I have no issue with PA or anyone debating this. While it feels black and white to me, it may not seem that way to others, and I always leave room for my opinion to be the wrong one in the argument. I wasn't there, didn't see the bets, or how the horse was handled up to the race, so it could be something else. Having said that, the data points are all right there for us to draw a solid hypothesis.

There is one thing with the tote board. Money doesn't lie. No matter how much BS trainers dish out about their horses, the money tells the story much more accurately. Had either the bet come in and the horse lost, or the horse ran so well without the betting, I'd be ok with it. It is the combination of the two that has me suspicious.

You've nailed it all day, kudos to you.

Others might want to go back and replay his race Feb 25th when he set fractions and watch his action.

47.88 1:12.31 1:37.72 1:44.06

I think the last 5/16 was 31.75 raw time.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by Cholly

Is El Paso close to Ruidoso?

lol goggle says 120 miles

[cj]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Well the trainer did state his last workout before the race was slow, picked up really strong at the end and his gallop out was huge

It’s right there in the form for all to read.

Racing on the front end wasn’t working for him, so they switched gears and tried a rate job.

Nice job by the trainer.

Allan

If I bet every piece of positive sounding trainer info I read I'd be broke.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Agreed. The betting and the way the horse ran deserve an audit. If I was running the show at Sunland, I'd have been on this immediately. As much for the connections of the winner, to remove doubt, as it would be to uncover something else.

But here's the problem. Why does the track want to bring undue negative spotlight on their product? They got the money into their pools and took their cut. That is where their true interest begins and ends. I'll tell you this....if the track was on the hook for fixed odds (at say the morning line of 8-1) and this money came in with this kind of result, there would be a serious investigation. In that I have no doubt.

This game lacks integrity and oversight in so many areas. It doesn't matter if you believe there was something illegal here, it only matters if you think the signs are there for it to be something illegal (which there clearly is). One only needs to have a cursory understanding of the game to know what happened in this race is "strange" both in the betting and kind of result that occurred.

I would love to have a printout of the bets, by time stamp and location. I could tell you in 30 seconds what happened if I was armed with that.

I get what you're saying, and I don't have proof one way or the other. Personally, I don't find it as shocking that someone could arrive at that price using only publicly available data. That said, your argument essentially condemns any form of pari mutuel wagering. Perhaps moving to fixed odds is what the sport needs to do, but it won't solve a losing player's profitability issues. And as Dave S said, it'll make betting exotics harder.

[cj]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

I get what you're saying, and I don't have proof one way or the other. Personally, I don't find it as shocking that someone could arrive at that price using only publicly available data. That said, your argument essentially condemns any form of pari mutuel wagering. Perhaps moving to fixed odds is what the sport needs to do, but it won't solve a losing player's profitability issues. And as Dave S said, it'll make betting exotics harder.

You don't think it would help smaller players? Yes, vast majority probably still lose, but right now those betting the big money late have a huge advantage and are getting a better price on their bets. Fixed odds would have to help.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by cj

You don't think it would help smaller players? Yes, vast majority probably still lose, but right now those betting the big money late have a huge advantage and are getting a better price on their bets. Fixed odds would have to help.

Perhaps. TBH, I don't know, because I'm sure bookies would be modeling their own lines to exploit weak players. How that trades off, I've got no idea. I think it'd help with perception for the more casual fan. That said, as someone who is attempting to bet using a model, I'd rather bet into a pari mutuel system vs a bookie.

[cj]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Perhaps. TBH, I don't know, because I'm sure bookies would be modeling their own lines to exploit weak players. How that trades off, I've got no idea. I think it'd help with perception for the more casual fan. That said, as someone who is attempting to bet using a model, I'd rather bet into a pari mutuel system vs a bookie.

I would too until the last 5 years. Right now not so much.

[thaskalos]

As time goes by and the "normal" folks continue to bet less and less in this game, more and more of the pari-mutuel pool will be comprised of computer-driven wagers...and these dramatic late changes of the odds will only get worse, IMO. In due time, we may ALL be priced out of this game...regardless of how "sharp" we may think we are.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

As time goes by and the "normal" folks continue to bet less and less in this game, more and more of the pari-mutuel pool will be comprised of computer-driven wagers...and these dramatic late changes of the odds will only get worse, IMO. In due time, we may ALL be priced out of this game...regardless of how "sharp" we may think we are.

It is already happening. Where do people think the "Gulfstream is up 14%" is coming from? It sure isn't guys hanging out in OTBs or playing with a few hundred bucks in an ADW account.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

It is already happening. Where do people think the "Gulfstream is up 14%" is coming from? It sure isn't guys hanging out in OTBs or playing with a few hundred bucks in an ADW account.

It's already happening...and it can only get worse. I'm glad that I've expanded my gambling horizons...lest I be left with no game to play.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It's already happening...and it can only get worse. I'm glad that I've expanded my gambling horizons...lest I be left with no game to play.

The playing field is going to have to be leveled. If you are betting Gulfstream, you're probably playing into at least a 25% takeout in the straight pools and even more on other bets. The deck is stacked against the average Joe. The anyone can do it argument doesn't fly. Not everyone can program a computer to put hundreds of bets in play in a few seconds after getting the latest pool info as the horses are loading into the gate. Does anyone believe it is a coincidence that Gulfstream has the long post drags? Who does this benefit? Surely not me or Gus. The CRW teams, yes.

I don't really like betting on much else besides horse racing, so I'm sticking with tennis for my spare time fall back plan. I beat an actual teaching pro last week, kind of my Johnny Chan "Rounders" moment. I'm going all in on the court!

[cutchemist42]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

This sport is going to have to compete directly against sports betting. You really think people will accept not knowing their final price when in sports, they can?

Like what reason is there for keeping up the parimutuel system?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

The playing field is going to have to be leveled. If you are betting Gulfstream, you're probably playing into at least a 25% takeout in the straight pools and even more on other bets. The deck is stacked against the average Joe. The anyone can do it argument doesn't fly. Not everyone can program a computer to put hundreds of bets in play in a few seconds after getting the latest pool info as the horses are loading into the gate. Does anyone believe it is a coincidence that Gulfstream has the long post drags? Who does this benefit? Surely not me or Gus. The CRW teams, yes.

I don't really like betting on much else besides horse racing, so I'm sticking with tennis for my spare time fall back plan. I beat an actual teaching pro last week, kind of my Johnny Chan "Rounders" moment. I'm going all in on the court!

I had a tennis adventure of my own recently. Not having stepped on a tennis court for over 6 years...I didn't hesitate to accept the challenge of a Russian tennis instructor, 7 years older than me...who suffered from the worst case of bow-leggedness that you could ever imagine. The poor man's knees looked as if they were ready to crumble...and he could barely walk down the street. Nevertheless, he gave me such a thorough beating on the court that I gave him my tennis racquets after the match...while promising myself that I would never again engage in any sport that didn't include the use of a chair.

[cutchemist42]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1842434

I will say I didnt watch the race as Sunland doesnt provide a feed. I know he won obviously before looking.

The post position sucked, but the computer rankings liked him. Had the highest Bris SR last time out as well. Had a high Quirin as well, but yeah, without being familiar with the outside post at Sunland, I wouldn't have wanted a small price.