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Old 06-08-2018, 11:00 AM   #1
Blenheim
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Handicapping the Belmont: Distance, the Duel and Dominant Classicity

Fun race to handicap; best yet.


Blended Citizen: Sire AWD 7.99f DP = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 CD Average Distance = 8.03f Mdn @ 52k; BRIS 100 / 100, paired figure pattern, form cycled down; “The logic holds that ordinary horses, the large majority, can deliver only two top performances in a row.” (Quinn); form now cycling up w/a nice 47.2 bullet @ Bel; benefited from favorable surface and pace in PeterPan w/front wraps; best races at lowly synth tracks; too far back at stretch call. Needs a fast pace or an exceptionally weak field to win.


Bravazo: Sire AWD 8.53f DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67 CD Average Distance = 8.31f Mdn @ 51k; BRIS paired figures (within 1-3 lengths) 96 / 98 cycled down; 93 / 97 form likely cycles down w/a nice mile work @ CD in 1:42.3; lost last three races; benefited from fast pace in Maryland; too far back at stretch call. Unexceptional overworked classic dual qualifier type.


Free Drop Billy: Sire AWD ( ) DP = 4-4-17-1-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42 CD Average Distance = 12f Mdn @ 47k; BRIS 99 / 96 form cycling down w/a nice 47.3 bullet and 5fl in 59.3 @ CD; lost last four races; too far back at stretch call; ran his best races as a 2yo. Off form overworked exhausted classic dual qualifier type.


Gronkowski:


Hofburg: Sire AWD 8.44f DP = 6-11-16-1-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65 CD Average Distance = 9f Mdn @ 60k; BRIS 96 / 104 (104 appears high) cycling down w/a nice 4f in 49.1 and 6f in 1:13.2 on Sar tr.t; losing ground in stretch in Mdn; benefited from fast pace in Florida; unremarkable; No speed, stamina, courage, determination late drive.


Justify: Sire AWD 8.13f DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 CD Average Distance = 7.88f Mdn @ 54k; Undefeated Dual Classic winner; sire stamina influence; BRIS 100, 104, 114, 102, 98 - cycled up after the 100 / 104 now cycling down w/a nice 46.4 bullet and 7f in 1:26.20 @ CD. Triple Crown threat possessing speed, stamina, courage, determination. “A distrust of top-ranked horses presently past their peaked form should persist as a basic principle of form analysis.” (Quinn)


Noble Indy: Sire AWD ( ) DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 CD Average Distance = 8.03fMdn @ 48k; BRIS 95 / 96 improved to BRIS 100; cycling up; rested, expecting improvement; nice 47 bullet on the Bel main w/a nice 5f in 1:01.1 galloping out 8f in 1:42 on the Bel tr.t; Possesses speed, stamina, courage, determination and late drive.


Restoring Hope: Sire AWD 8.82f DP = 3-6-25-0-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.35 CD Average Distance = >12f Mdn @ 54; BRIS 92 / 96 cycling up; textbook works: 4f 47 bullet; 5f 1:00 bullet; 8f in 1:40.20. 7f in 1:26.40 w/6f in 1:13 flat – horse is humpin’; lacks seasoning; possesses Dominant Classicity. “The overall impact of high point totals in the Classic category cannot be overstated, especially in the context of distance ability. Runners with at least 20 points in Classic (just 4.4% of the population) have the lowest percentage of wins in sprints (13.2%) and, except for the very small group with the most points in Professional, the highest percentage of wins on grass (51.4%). Their AWD of 8.83 furlongs is exceeded only by the 8.98 furlong AWD of that same group dominated by Professional points.” (Roman). Distance suited, talented, lightly raced dead fit swifty.


Ten Fold: Sire AWD 8.33f DP = 5-8-13-0-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69 CD Average Distance = 8.5f Mdn @ 75k; BRIS 92, 93, 94, 97 continuous upward cycle; improving fractions; rested; expecting improvement; benefited from fast pace in Maryland; unimpressive 5f in 1:01.3 @ CD; lacks seasoning. Talented, lightly raced dead fit swifty on the improve.


Vino Rosso: Sire AWD 8.33f DP = 5-4-7-0-0 DI = 3.57 CD = 0.88 CD Average Distance = ( ) Mdn @ 60k; Confounding form cycle may be surface related; rested, expecting disappointment; benefited from a fast pace in the Wood; nice 47 bullet on the Bel main track w/a nice 5f in 1:01.2 galloping out 8f in 1:42 on the Bel tr.t. Lacks speed, possesses late drive.



Synopsis
Interesting race with two salient handicapping factors: the horse best suited for the distance and how the duel between Justify and Noble Indy influences the result.

The race is unpredictable. Ten 3yos bred for a 8f or so racing 12f on Big Sandy. Dosage suggests the horse best suited for the distance is Restoring Hope w/a Sire AWD of 8.82 and a Dominant Classicity AWD of 8.83. The Sire and Dominant Classicity average winning distances indicate Restoring Hope has a half to a full furlong advantage.


“We’re going to watch him train [Restoring Hope] and put a few more works in him. He ran really well in the Wood, ran a nice third in there. I think sometimes with the mile and a half, they can get a piece of it. There’s a lot of horses that don’t want to go that far, and for others they seem to do well. We’ll see,” Baffert said. Baffert went on to say “I think he had trouble with it,” in reference to the off conditions of the Pat Day Mile. “I thought he was going to run good. He trains well, he’s a real good work horse, and he’s training well. It seems like he’s getting better so we’re giving him a chance.”


The chance that Justify breaks well from the one spot is good and the chance that Noble Indy challenges him from the eight spot is even greater. If by chance Justify gets loose and sets an easy pace he has a shot to win it. If Justify and Noble Indy duel for a majority of the race likely one or both will flame out. Justify’s declining form suggests he will yield while Noble Indy’s courage and late drive suggest he will carry on. The duel may set the race up for the horse best suited for the distance.

My form analysis shows four maybe five horses with form cycling up: Restoring Hope, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso. I tossed Blended Citizen with a Sire AWD of 7.99 and I tossed Vino Rosso for his unpredictability – Noble Indy flames out in the duel. I’m left with Restoring Hope and Tenfold. Restoring Hope is best suited for the distance and has been workin’ lights out while Tenfold’s BRIS have steadily increased. They only need to improve a few lengths and they are as good as the rest of em’. No doubt they both lack seasoning, but they are the lightly raced talented swifty types that have dominated this Triple Crown Trail.



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Best or racing luck.

Lookin’ forward to the Belmont Stakes!



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Old 06-08-2018, 11:21 AM   #2
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Good analysis.

I like those horses too, and am caught with liking Hofburg but understanding that the price is not right, and he has as many questions as the rest that are "trying to improve."

In any case, the first step is to decide you're going against Justify, and like you, I am.
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Old 06-08-2018, 11:53 AM   #3
BlueChip@DRF
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So what are the profiles of the previous Belmont winners?
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Old 06-09-2018, 09:29 AM   #4
Thomas Roulston
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I simply don't like horses with no Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in their Dosage Profile going this far. Never have, never will.
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Old 06-09-2018, 11:57 AM   #5
Ribot Roboto
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11 of the last 25 winners had 0 s or p in their profile.
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Old 06-09-2018, 01:54 PM   #6
Blenheim
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Using Dosage as a handicapping tool . . .

Interesting where the data can lead sometimes . . . gotta go with it.


If you scratch the workout in the Pat Day, the horse is only a few lengths back, his form is cycling up and he is bred to stay. If those works @ CD mean anything and I believe they do, we might have ourselves a hoss' race.


For those interested in adding Dosage to your handicapping arsenal, you can find Roman's free book here: https://www.dailyracing.com/news/ken...e-performance/


Hope you're well down there Doc, watch out for them there earthquakes and volcanoes.


Did I say best of racing luck.


Lookin' forward to the NY, NY.


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Old 06-09-2018, 02:59 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto View Post
11 of the last 25 winners had 0 s or p in their profile.
That is fine w/me, when it's double zero's is when I have to start looking at the mare side for some *extra* .....
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