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05-02-2018, 10:33 PM
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#31
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Horse Racing Connossieur
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Michigan
Posts: 687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boris
Free Drop went off at 7-1 in the BC Juvy and was the fav in the Gotham. Broke his maiden at first asking over the CD dirt. Now he is 30-1. Given the post and Albarado back in the saddle, he"ll be more forwardly placed from the gate. Was not catching GM in the Blue Grass, but was running well when he was body checked. I'll play him and should get some good root for my money.
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I'm in. Horse loves CD is bred to run all day and doesn't care about running in company, is one tough dude. Nice middle move in the Bluegrass, agree he was finding his "Best stride late" when stopped.
Romans set his sights on a Derby win with this guy and he is primed to run his best with a traditional conditioning foundation. Works are solid, wanting to do more, with great gallop outs.
Might not be fast enough to win it, but when others are stopping and looking for a nap, he should still be rolling and getting into high gear.
Not sure if you get 30-1 on him with the Romans connection, but I will take it. Good Magic is a similar kind of runner. Looks like a cold exacta box for me with a little more of Billy on top. Good luck.
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05-03-2018, 06:04 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ringkoebing
Posts: 4,342
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Blended Citizen if he gets in. Mainly for the lower spots in the tri/super.
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05-03-2018, 06:12 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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I may be the only one but I really like Lone Sailor. Hofburg, too, but his odds will not be anywhere near as good.
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05-03-2018, 11:52 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Hey there! Good to see your name here again!
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Thank You PA . Had some moves and big life changes but miss being here and hope
To be back more .
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05-04-2018, 01:28 AM
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#35
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Hofburg and Vino Rosso will be high on many lists as LS upsetters, but I see them as both being simply 'adders' to Tris or Supers.
If I'm stretching and looking for a bomb in this loaded Derby, I'm looking squarely at 2 horses.
Instilled Regard
Noble Indy
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05-04-2018, 02:01 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Willamette Valley, Oregon
Posts: 1,621
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Enticed
Hofburg
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05-04-2018, 09:36 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 440
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boris
Free Drop went off at 7-1 in the BC Juvy and was the fav in the Gotham. Broke his maiden at first asking over the CD dirt. Now he is 30-1. Given the post and Albarado back in the saddle, he"ll be more forwardly placed from the gate. Was not catching GM in the Blue Grass, but was running well when he was body checked. I'll play him and should get some good root for my money.
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Romans would have been a lot better served putting Lanerie on Free Drop Billy and keeping Albarado on Promises Fulfilled. Corey hasn't ridden either but is much better suited on a horse like FDB than Robby is.
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05-04-2018, 09:47 AM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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# MyboyJack with Kent D.........................
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05-04-2018, 09:52 AM
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#39
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upthecreek
# MyboyJack with Kent D.........................
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His Sheets numbers are pretty solid. I just hate how he hung in the lone 9F race he ran.
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05-04-2018, 09:58 AM
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#40
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,575
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I agree with UpTheCreek, although he only beat me here by a couple of minutes.
Derby longshot winners have usually been closers, e.g., Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, so I'm going with 30-1 My Boy Jack who has the highest Late Timeform pace rating in the field.
He'll need help up front, to say the least.
Last edited by Redboard; 05-04-2018 at 10:00 AM.
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05-04-2018, 10:25 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
I agree with UpTheCreek, although he only beat me here by a couple of minutes.
Derby longshot winners have usually been closers, e.g., Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, so I'm going with 30-1 My Boy Jack who has the highest Late Timeform pace rating in the field.
He'll need help up front, to say the least.
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Agreeing with me is never a good thing
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05-04-2018, 04:50 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Spaghetti Junction and Frustration Blvd.
Posts: 1,884
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My Boy Jack
In a total pace meltdown, is he good enough? Getting a lot of love on the board right now from a M/L of 30 to 1 he is currently 5 to 1. WOW!!
__________________
Warm Regards,
Vinnie
"All Human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method"- F. Kafka
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05-04-2018, 05:47 PM
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#43
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upthecreek
# MyboyJack with Kent D.........................
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Now he's tied as 2nd choice in the betting. Someone must really love the way you pick horses!
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-04-2018, 06:46 PM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Long shots (30-1 or better odds) I'm wheeling in are Promises Fulfilled, Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Bravazo, My Boy Jack. I'm going heavy on Bravazo. Excluded him before but took a good second glance and, as long shots go, I don't think there's any good reason to exclude him other than he's lost races to other young horses (and his pedigree can mean he's a "late bloomer"). Personally, I like Bravazo's inconsistencies as a betting factor. Same with Promises but the fading out of stamina is a logical concern. But Promises had too short time between races I think is part reason for the 9th in Florida Derby.
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05-04-2018, 10:42 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 565
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Enticed
I'm liking Enticed. I think he ran just a little too close to the pace in the Wood and was used up, but he still held on for second. Rate him a little more like in the Gotham, which had a similar pace setup if I remember correctly, and I think he is fangerous.
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