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09-05-2023, 06:49 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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NFL Picks
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I don't have a pick for Thursday's game with the Chiefs favored by 6.5 over the Lions
I posted early because I thought maybe someone else did and would like to throw us a winner
I have some picks for Sunday's games which I will post Saturday
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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09-05-2023, 07:56 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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i dont have anything right now but would it be ok to post my picks in this thread thanks and best of luck this season 
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09-05-2023, 08:11 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11
i dont have anything right now but would it be ok to post my picks in this thread thanks and best of luck this season |
sure, post away - I badly need some winners to make up for my racing disasters_______ 
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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09-05-2023, 09:58 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,716
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I lost a long dissertation, I guess I don't have all the bugs worked out of my new internet/cell service. I have sucked at week to week NFL betting since the internet came along. I have found solace in parlaying divisional winners, betting a couple weeks in, something to look at. Right now, Bills, Jags, Chiefs, Eagles, with 49ers are +1591. I have not dug in too deep, anyone want to pick at my chalk ticket have at it. I thought last year's was in the bag then the Titans finished with 7 straight loses. They just needed to eat 2:00 or so of clock to eat in the last game to beat the Jags and fumbled away the ball, BASTARDS! Those bets give entertainment value, you always have your division races to track.
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09-05-2023, 05:36 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
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I'll chip in with my underdog-system picks, all lines based on Caesars as of today.
Lions +5
Pats +4
Raiders +3.5
Rams +5
NY Giants +3.5
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09-07-2023, 06:12 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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totally unreal - from the article_____________it ain't easy________________52.4% ats winners will about break you even
"For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last season."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...t-bets-week-1/
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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09-07-2023, 06:42 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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I guess they woulda done better on their best bets__________I dunno
I would bet that way less than half showed a profit
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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09-07-2023, 01:11 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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totally unreal - from the article_____________it ain't easy________________ 52.4% ats winners will about break you even
"For context, among the 385 so-called experts tracked by Pickwatch last season, only 34 were correct on better than 52 percent of their against-the-spread recommendations picking all the games last season."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...t-bets-week-1/
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I hate to brag but once went 63% for an NBA season ATS. I have a friend that was my roommate that can vouch. It was about 30 years ago, I used to ride to Tijuana daily and place beats living in San Clemente. I used to ride my MC down there. Here is the kicker after figuring expenses, I broke even on the year. I never played anything crazier than a 4 game parlay and usually 2's and 3's. Always by the -110 spread. My Achilles heel was the $1,000 wager, I seriously do not ever recall winning one at anything. I had to win one somewhere, right? I can't be 0-100 or so at $1,000+. We are talking NBA, NFL, (never bet $1k on an MLB game), horse racing, hand on Black Jack, poker hand in wild game, etc,etc.
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09-09-2023, 05:42 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Week 1 picks
Bengas - 2
Bills -2.5
Jaguars - m/l - - 205 (Fan Duel)______________glta
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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09-09-2023, 06:16 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,764
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Eagles -4
Saints -3
49'ers - 2 1/2
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09-09-2023, 09:36 PM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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there's one game that bugs me
i don't believe I have good information.
From what I do see, the Miami Dolphins have apparently moved from -110 +2 to -110 +3 in spite of Miami +2--->+3 also taking the most money.
those kind of things jump off of the page and jumps out at apprehension. Possible traps or insider regional bookmaker info at play,
If that is even accurate, it's a game that would scare me.
In general, but first of all if I had any thoughts of taking Miami +3...
it would scare me into a position of demanding an understanding.
Proceed to think about it... I wanted Tua Tagu Ravioli and Tyreek Cheetah' Hill on my Fantasy Football squadrons...
I can barely describe San Diego's team.
Can you? I mean they were competitive to end the season and all, but Tua and Tyreek 
now I bet my hard earned money against San Diego.
See! Los Angeles's ( not SD!) team.
LA Chargers minus three for the bookie.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 09-09-2023 at 09:47 PM.
Reason: are you ready? doo do dooo do do do doo doo do do do ...
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09-09-2023, 10:17 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,519
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Why would the sports books bet when they have a sure edge?
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09-09-2023, 10:56 PM
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#13
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garyscpa
Why would the sports books bet when they have a sure edge?
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you have National books, and they are legal now, but 'regional books' are still operating to some extent. They still have a role to play.
greed?
short-term incentives? IDK... why do CAW syndicates supposedly win flat bet profits instead of scraping out half or less of their rebate?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 09-09-2023 at 11:01 PM.
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09-09-2023, 11:07 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,519
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If they do they're stupid.
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09-10-2023, 11:01 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tor Ekman
I'll chip in with my underdog-system picks, all lines based on Caesars as of today.
Lions +5 Win
Pats +4 Loss
Raiders +3.5 Win
Rams +5 Win
NY Giants +3.5 Loss
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3-2, I'll take it for opening week, only bad pick was Giants, Pats game was a squeaker that could've gone the other way
Last edited by Tor Ekman; 09-10-2023 at 11:02 PM.
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