NFL Picks

[Tor Ekman]

This week's underdog picks, all lines with Caesar's NY as of 10/18:

Lions +3
Colts +1.5
Chargers +5.5
Dolphins +2

Last week: 2-2
Season: 16-13

[Inner Dirt]

As someone who had Beyer selling his figures to the Racing Form and then the internet killing my sports gambling edge at the same time, I would appreciate people sharing their logic behind their picks if that isn't too much to ask. Don't worry I am only looking to be able to break close to even and enjoy the games with a little money on them. My wagers will not move lines. My biggest wiped out edge was looking at how teams did against the lines and who was hot and who was cold.


You had teams that were prone to go through the motions when laying a lot of points. I remember another one back in the day the team laying the most points that week in NCAA football would cover 85% of the time. I had hoards of notebooks, between sports betting and horses I studied 3-4 hours a day.
That time I robbed from what a normal person slept.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I would appreciate people sharing their logic behind their picks if that isn't too much to ask.

I haven't posted these picks here because my ego got in the way
I wanted to post my own picks - thinking I could be a winner with my own handicapping

I no longer think that

if you check out the link - you will see that the gambling expert who calls himself the Wizard of Odds tracked over 2,000 bets and found that the away underdog had a positive r.o.i. of 2.57%

I tweaked that believing that the low spread road dogs would do better and I tracked over 300 bets and found that road dogs who got 4 points or fewer won about 57.6% of their bets with about a 10% r.o.i.

for this season road dogs who got 4 points or fewer are currently 14-11

I ignore pushes - can't remember if there were any

it makes perfect sense that the public overvalues the home team

I have posted these picks on a different site and will now post some of them here - no more handicapping for me

my own idea - using the 2nd link and covers.com - I have tracked the consensus public pick of 65% or greater and so far this season these picks are 20-7.

unfortunately it is very time consuming to get data from this from prior years and I wasn't willing to spend a ton of time reasearching so I can't be 100% sure it provides an edge and that this season's results are not purely from chance

but I would speculate that there is an edge to be had with these picks - but nowhere near as great as what the current results indicate

the 65% or greater pick is just about always a fave and often a big fave



https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus


.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

I haven't posted these picks here because my ego got in the way
I wanted to post my own picks - thinking I could be a winner with my own handicapping

I no longer think that

if you check out the link - you will see that the gambling expert who calls himself the Wizard of Odds tracked over 2,000 bets and found that the away underdog had a positive r.o.i. of 2.57%

I tweaked that believing that the low spread road dogs would do better and I tracked over 300 bets and found that road dogs who got 4 points or fewer won about 57.6% of their bets with about a 10% r.o.i.

for this season road dogs who got 4 points or fewer are currently 14-11

I ignore pushes - can't remember if there were any

it makes perfect sense that the public overvalues the home team

I have posted these picks on a different site and will now post some of them here - no more handicapping for me

my own idea - using the 2nd link and covers.com - I have tracked the consensus public pick of 65% or greater and so far this season these picks are 20-7.

unfortunately it is very time consuming to get data from this from prior years and I wasn't willing to spend a ton of time reasearching so I can't be 100% sure it provides an edge and that this season's results are not purely from chance

but I would speculate that there is an edge to be had with these picks - but nowhere near as great as what the current results indicate

the 65% or greater pick is just about always a fave and often a big fave



https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public-consensus


.

Thanks, all input is welcome.

[sharkey11]

sports is very hard to find any edge on and if so its very small at that. its just like horse racing where the big boys $$ get to bet last in sports its just the reverse they bet first . best of luck to all

[sharkey11]

were 6-5 so far this season week 7 try pha -2 for a dollar gl too all

[Half Smoke]

.

I'm 18-19____________really spectacular__________(-:\


Week 7 picks


Bills -8.5 over Patriots

Bucs - 2.5 over Falcons

Raiders -2.5 over Bears

Rams - 3 over Steelers

Lions +3 over Ravens

Dolphins +2.5 over Eagles___________________________glta


.

[Half Smoke]

.

lost all 6 of my picks - wow - that's never happened to me before

the edge I thought I might have has disappeared_________(-:\


I noticed that when an NFL running back goes up the middle his teammates often push him from the back to help him gain yards

I think that's a fairly new strategy - isn't it__________?

I don't remember that from back in the day

.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

lost all 6 of my picks - wow - that's never happened to me before

the edge I thought I might have has disappeared_________(-:\


I noticed that when an NFL running back goes up the middle his teammates often push him from the back to help him gain yards

I think that's a fairly new strategy - isn't it__________?

I don't remember that from back in the day

.

Correct me, if I am wrong. Either in one or the other college or pro, that was not a legal play, back in the day. As we know rules change. I have no idea how many years ago it was probably decades that USC did that against Notre Dame and the announcers who probably hated USC as much as I did went crazy that it was allowed. It is obviously now legal in the NFL, I think it always was but nobody used it, as we know it is a copy cat league. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are unstoppable on 4th and 1, but Hurts is said to squat 600#, that is freaking nuts, unless you are a 350# lineman.

[Tor Ekman]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

This week's underdog picks, all lines with Caesar's NY as of 10/18:

Lions +3 Loss
Colts +1.5 Win
Chargers +5.5 Loss
Dolphins +2 Loss

Tough week 1-3, now just one game above .500 for season and slightly into the red with the vig.

Season record: 17-16

[Tor Ekman]

This week's underdog picks, all lines with Caesar's NY as of 10/26:

Washington +7
Rams +6
Titans +2.5
Cardinals +9.5

Last week: 1-3
Season: 17-16

[Half Smoke]

.

not gonna post my personal picks anymore - don't believe they have value

I do believe that away underdogs in the NFL who got 4 points or less does have value -

I've now tracked over 350 games from prior years - no handicapping - and they've won about 57.6% with about a 10% r.o.i.

this is my tweaking of gambling expert Mike Shackleford - aka the Wizard of Odds- tracking of over 2,000 NFL away underdogs and found that they won 53.75% for an r.o.i. of 2.57%

very interestingly, he also tracked over 3,000 games and found that all away won 53.1% with a 1.34% r.o.i. -

it makes perfect sense that the public overvalues the home advantage

this stuff is very useful to anyone who is mainly interested in milking books for promos and bonuses - see link

the road dogs who got 4 points or fewer are 17-13 for the current year



https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


.

[Tor Ekman]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

This week's underdog picks, all lines with Caesar's NY as of 10/26:

Washington +7 Push
Rams +6 Loss
Titans +2.5 Win
Cardinals +9.5 Win

2-1-1, another so-so week, basically even for the year

Season Record: 19-17-1

[Tor Ekman]

This week's underdog picks, all lines with Caesar's NY on 11/2:

Dolphins +2
Bucs +2.5
Vikings +4
Rams +3

Last week: 2-1-1
Season: 19-17-1

[lamboguy]

i forgot to post last week. i went 3 winners and 5 losers. winners were Panthers, Eagles and Seahawks. The losers were the Saints, 49rs, Buccaneer's ml, Giants and Bears.

this week

Bears
Panthers
Buccaneers
Seahawks
Cardinals
Commanders
Giants

all bet with the money lines

bonus Breeders cup Friday race 5 #4 BIG EVS