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Old 10-13-2023, 04:38 AM   #61
Half Smoke
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I'm 12-13 - some picks for this weekend, NCAA & NFL


Navy/Charlotte______ under 43.5
Akron/CMU___________________ under 43.5
Pitt/Louisville_______over 44.5
Air Force/Wyoming_______________over 42.5
Ohio/Northern Illinois________________________over 45
SJSU/UNM____________under 57.5


Seahawks +2.5

Patriots +2.5

Commanders +2.5______________glta


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Old 10-13-2023, 09:35 AM   #62
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forgot this one and left it out

gonna double down on this one

the 9ers - 9.5 over the Browns on Sunday - in their last game the Browns got crushed by 25 by the Ravens

the 9ers have crushed all 5 teams they have played by an average of 19.8 points

I'll take the 9ers - don't mind giving up that many points in a situation like this

the news says that Browns QB Deshaun Watson will prolly sit with a shoulder injury and P.J. Walker will prolly start at QB - in 3 years he's thrown 5 TDs and 11 picks


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Old 10-13-2023, 10:24 AM   #63
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week 6 we are at even mark 4-4 for -40 bucks this week trying min-3 cle +10and tb+3 dollar on each gl
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Old 10-13-2023, 11:45 AM   #64
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i played
49'rs
Eagles
Cowboys
Saints

all minus the points

Giants

Panthers

plus the money lines

and Seahawks plus the money
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Old 10-13-2023, 11:48 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
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I'm 12-12________that's not gonna impress anybody

gonna try something new - for me anyway - with NCAA picks - gonna go with the o/u

tonight Coastal Carolina/Appalachia State over 61

the App state total for their last game was 88_________CCU was 66_________CCU scored 66 by themselves in one game

famous last words________?


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you should have found the Texans +2 1/2 and Maryland +21. that my friend happens to be the whole game in a nutshell, you have to know when to step in with the best possible lines.
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Old 10-14-2023, 07:11 AM   #66
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re rain and betting the totals in college football

pretty interesting and potentially useful

per the article the books don't fully adjust for this


from the article:


"on games with any level of participation the total is under 55-56% of the time, with a point or two of value against the line per quarter inch of precipitation. There are an average of 54 games per season with precipitation. If you took the under on all of those, you'd be expected to hit 30-23-1.Jun 26


LOTS OF RAIN VS. THE SPREAD - UNDER BETS


all Games 3740-3553-102 51.3%
No Precipitation 3350-3254-89 50.7%
Less than 1" 359-286-11 55.7%
More than 1" 31-13-2 70.5%"


https://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ditions-effect

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Last edited by Half Smoke; 10-14-2023 at 07:13 AM.
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Old 10-15-2023, 06:26 AM   #67
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one more pick for today

Colts + 3.5


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Old 10-15-2023, 09:19 AM   #68
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Tampa Bay will be donning the beloved Creamsicle jerseys today.

Getting 3 at home today from Detroit.

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Old 10-15-2023, 01:21 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
.

forgot this one and left it out

gonna double down on this one

the 9ers - 9.5 over the Browns on Sunday - in their last game the Browns got crushed by 25 by the Ravens

the 9ers have crushed all 5 teams they have played by an average of 19.8 points

I'll take the 9ers - don't mind giving up that many points in a situation like this

the news says that Browns QB Deshaun Watson will prolly sit with a shoulder injury and P.J. Walker will prolly start at QB - in 3 years he's thrown 5 TDs and 11 picks


.

That was -5.5 until it was listed that QB Watson was out, some listening to the NFL on Sirius XM had him out an estimated 4 weeks on Monday, they are pretty good on getting early solid info on injuries.
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Old 10-16-2023, 02:47 PM   #70
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The Cleveland Browns head coach pulled a fast one and started his practice squad QB. PJ Walker did not play great, but way better than Thompson-Robinson would have against the 49er defense. If I had bet and saw Walker trotted out there I would have been pissed. I watched a lot of DTR at UCLA, I am shocked anyone drafted him.
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Old 10-16-2023, 05:12 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned View Post
Tampa Bay will be donning the beloved Creamsicle jerseys today.

Getting 3 at home today from Detroit.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...38725190279421
Didn't helped...

They played like a creamsicle ...

Football gave it a complete upside down...

Good teams playing bad...Bad teams playing good...

Dallas looks good at -1....

Bet Chargers...
Last edited by Saratoga; 10-16-2023 at 05:17 PM.
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Old 10-17-2023, 04:29 AM   #72
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I'm 17-18


today__________Middle Tennessee/Liberty___ under_____ 55.5


Wednesday____N. Mexico St./Utep_____under______48.5___________glta


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Old 10-17-2023, 08:20 AM   #73
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49'rs
Eagles
Cowboys
Saints

all minus the points

Giants

Panthers

plus the money lines

and Seahawks plus the money
one winner and 6 losers


this week

Saints

Rams

Packers

Eagles

all above minus the points

Bears

Lions

both plus the money lines
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Old 10-17-2023, 08:40 AM   #74
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This week's underdog picks, all lines with Caesar's NY as of 10/11

Titans +4 Loss
Washington +2.5 Win
NY Jets +7 Win
Chargers +2 Loss
2-2 week, treading water, still looking for that breakout week

Season Record: 16-13
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Old 10-18-2023, 05:40 AM   #75
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I'm 17-19

tomorrow NFL game


Jaguars +1.5

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