Angles

[Zaf]

Even a bigger loser with larger sample, Thanks Tom.

ZAFONIC

[Misteranthropic]

Zafonic,

I just ran my entire YTD db for first time lasix with no other filters and so far they're winning at a 12.5% clip with an ave. mutuel of 16.14 for an ROI of 1.01. If you limit your wagers to final odds of 7-1 your win rate drops to 7.4% but the ave. mutuel kicks up to $30 bucks plus for an ROI of 1.13.

So there you go, a new angle, first time lasix, 7-1 and higher. Good wagering to you!

Originally Posted by zafonic

Thank You Misteranthropic. I figured the ROI would of been a little bit higher on that.

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

3rd back from a layoff and racing within 10 days of the 2nd start back.


anybody that can drag that out of a database........... I would love to hear it

All tracks

363/3407 10.7%

Bet $6814
Return $4624.60 roi .68

Look how close that was to the 9 race sample!

[Misteranthropic]

Tom,

My what a HUGE db you have. I now officially have db envy.

Interesting that our results are very similar. Thanks for the posts.

Regards,

Brian

Originally Posted by Tom

All tracks

363/3407 10.7%

Bet $6814
Return $4624.60 roi .68

Look how close that was to the 9 race sample!

[Tom]

Ralph, Zafonic.

These might be better looked as a trainer angle, not a general one.
I'll look at both tomorrow and see if there are profitable subsets of trainers.

One of my old angles is won by 5 or more lengths, back in 10 days. (Cramer research)
Raw numbers - 23% winners, roi .87. Surprising number of double digit payoffs in this sample.

[Topcat]

46 Good Idea!

[mcikey01]

what do the dbases show for sprints ALW nw1 or higher class, 1st race after 30 day( 45day, 60day etc) layoff and 1st, 2nd, or 3rd betting choice. Looking for Win%, Place % and ROI for both

[Suff]

I love angle. Its what I play. Tossing ugly paper and betting an angle is right and proper.

To bad nowadays everything is Trainer + Angle. Trainers are'nt A angle, they're THE angle. And the words out, so they're over bet.

[andicap]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

BUT, I was hoping to start a thread on HOW folks discover angles.

Hmm. 46zilzal, looks like you're getting lots of angles, but not very many "HOW" do people discover angles.

So here's what I do --

I read this board. Just kidding.

Actually,
when I see a few longshot horses fit into some angle on my daily handicapping I just go back and research. I'll research in 50-race chunks. I like the idea of doing rolling staggered studies suggested here. I won't even begun to think about betting it until it holds up over two chunks in aggregate. I also want to see if one huge race had an outsized effect.

Since angles are often track specific I'll stick to a single track where it showed promise and if it bears out try it out on other similar tracks. (Class and configuration wise.) I'll also study to see if its surface or distance specific although lack of enough data here is an issue.

I don't like to test angles in databases because it ignores the individual charactoristics of specific races. An angle might not work in races where there is a lone "E" horse or a contentious pace or where Dutrow just claimed someone (pre-detention barn.) Or it may not work with trainers with lousy records or horses stuck in an outside post going two turns unless they have the speed to tuck or are "S" horses in a highly pressured race. Etc. Etc.

Have found angles that do well in NY also work at Monmouth for example.

I truly believe the reason a lot of angles work for 6 months and then "stop" working is the way they are tested -- ie, huge general, impersonal databases.

Sometimes smaller samples that get greater TLC can elicit more effective results than a 10,000 race DB. Mark Cramer warned about this in his newsletter, noting about how all sorts of crap can creep into large samples. He usually tested his angles on smaller samples, about 200 races or so.

[shanta]

Claimers / Up in company off a loss / back within 14 days / Trainer win % 12 and higher

Richie

[JustRalph]

Great thread..........Thanks guys.

[so.cal.fan]

At the winter Santa Anita meet.
Theory is:
They were born below the equator...different breeding cycles.
Our winter is like summer or early fall for these imports....they seem to run less erratic than other mares born north of the equator who may be going in and out of season.

[Stealth]

Misteranthropic and Tom,

What programs do you use to run your data bases?

[Misteranthropic]

Stealth,

I'm using Jeff P.'s Jcapper, which btw, I am having a passionate affair with.

Originally Posted by Stealth

Misteranthropic and Tom,

What programs do you use to run your data bases?

[Tom]

I use Access with HTR exports.