Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-17-2021, 07:36 PM   #16
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
Lesson reiterated to the rider of Monomoy: RIDE to JUST past the wire, don't ease up or you will often get NAILED
Probably was scared he'd get fined/suspended by the stewards like Joel Rosario last week after he rode Rushie past the wire in the Oaklawn Mile...
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2021, 08:35 PM   #17
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
IMO, they both ran a terrific race, but 6 pounds, a controlled pace, and a well timed incredibly strong left handed finish by Irad made the difference.

No disrespect to the winner who is obviously much improved this year. But personally, I'm very surprised. I thought either Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver or both would have enough speed to get to Latruska on the 2nd turn and once they did they'd out-finish her. I was right about the development, but she turned MG back. Amazing.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 04-17-2021 at 08:38 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2021, 09:14 PM   #18
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
IMO, they both ran a terrific race, but 6 pounds, a controlled pace, and a well timed incredibly strong left handed finish by Irad made the difference.

No disrespect to the winner who is obviously much improved this year. But personally, I'm very surprised. I thought either Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver or both would have enough speed to get to Latruska on the 2nd turn and once they did they'd out-finish her. I was right about the development, but she turned MG back. Amazing.
Letruska also already had 3 starts under her belt this campaign while the 2 favorites had made a single start each.

Monomoy Girl, like last year, started her campaign with a relatively low BSF. But last year, she had 8 weeks between starts, had a consistent worktab, and caught a relatively soft field in a Grade 2. This year, she came back on 6 weeks rest and for some reason also took almost 3 weeks to work back from the Bayakoa and then missed another work in early April (15 days between her last 2 workouts).

Swiss Skydiver got a big BSF at Santa Anita, but it was the only 2-turn dirt race on the card and for what it's worth the 7 furlong split in her race was slower than both a 4-horse maiden special weight and a low-level claimer (both run at 7f). Her final 1/8 was also slower than the maiden special weight (granted the winner was a debuting 1/2 to American Pharoah). Most of the Beholder entrants were eligible for a NW2x allowance (in fact one of them just ran well beaten 2nd to last year's Apple Blossom winner in an allowance race today at SA).

Swiss Skydiver was also training all winter in FL, shipped to CA to run, shipped back to FL to train some more, shifted over to KY to train up to this race, then shipped to AR to run. It remains to be seen if McPeek has already blown all the benefits the filly got from the much needed respite after last year's disastrous BC run.

Last edited by Spalding No!; 04-17-2021 at 09:15 PM.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 12:26 AM   #19
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
IMO, they both ran a terrific race, but 6 pounds, a controlled pace, and a well timed incredibly strong left handed finish by Irad made the difference.

No disrespect to the winner who is obviously much improved this year. But personally, I'm very surprised. I thought either Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver or both would have enough speed to get to Latruska on the 2nd turn and once they did they'd out-finish her. I was right about the development, but she turned MG back. Amazing.
Got a weight break, on the lead that is dangerous. Needs the lead, got it, judge on the next race.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 08:09 AM   #20
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
Letruska took a lot of money up until post time . Probably based on her last race . That was a great race the top two were locked up in a tough battle to the wire. The odd horse out was Swiss Skydiver, tried to hustle out and Letruska would have none of that. Immediately on her and past her. Came up empty in the stretch. That’s the second time in the top division vs the real heavies she failed to fire. Needs to step forward to keep up with these horses. She really was no
match again yesterday.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 08:42 AM   #21
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Monomoy Girl, like last year, started her campaign with a relatively low BSF. But last year, she had 8 weeks between starts, had a consistent worktab, and caught a relatively soft field in a Grade 2. This year, she came back on 6 weeks rest and for some reason also took almost 3 weeks to work back from the Bayakoa and then missed another work in early April (15 days between her last 2 workouts).
I use figures, but I'm not a fundamentalist about them. To me, she's a low triple digit Beyer horse and will run what it takes to win up to what appears to be her top range in the 102-104 area. If it takes less, she'll run less. I wasn't overly worried about either of her annual debut figures. I would have been worried if she lost or didn't look as good doing it.

I didn't notice anything about the work tab. Good catch. That's pretty interesting.

She's 6. Maybe the racing is starting to catch up with her. Maybe she can't handle as tough a work schedule now because there are some minor things going on.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 04-18-2021 at 08:46 AM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 09:08 AM   #22
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
Swiss Skydiver may be one of those filly casualties that never recovers from a grueling 3yr old campaign (see Rachel Alexandra & Silverbulletday).
All three ran vs the boys in their 3yr old season.

Rachel - Preakness, Haskell, Woodward
Silverbulletday - Belmont
Swiss Skydiver - Blue Grass, Preakness
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 09:12 AM   #23
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
You have to look at speed figures and ...... watch replays. Swiss Skydivers problems start at the gate. The start. They are trying to hustle her out. She stumbled once and yesterday her start was no match for the winner. Latruska makes the lead with ease. Monomoy Girl breaks into stride with no effort at all. That’s what watching reveals. Latruska has developed into a 5 year old monster. She’s huge, her strides are long and fluent. Left rail open and dared Swiss to try it. You just look at those three running and the top two looked better from step one.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 09:33 AM   #24
v j stauffer
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Swiss Skydiver may be one of those filly casualties that never recovers from a grueling 3yr old campaign (see Rachel Alexandra & Silverbulletday).
All three ran vs the boys in their 3yr old season.

Rachel - Preakness, Haskell, Woodward
Silverbulletday - Belmont
Swiss Skydiver - Blue Grass, Preakness
Very Sharp Post
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
v j stauffer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 09:43 AM   #25
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
...and there's the Irad factor that we haven't mentioned yet.

Dude
Is
On
Fire

From 6 mounts yesterday he had 2 winners, 2 seconds, and 1 third.
He rode the hair off Letruska
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 09:44 AM   #26
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
If you run 'em enough they all get beat. Which is one reason people shouldn't be enamored with horses like Justify (even beyond the doping cloud that hangs over his head).
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 09:48 AM   #27
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Swiss Skydiver got a big BSF at Santa Anita, but it was the only 2-turn dirt race on the card
It looks like Beyer had the early dirt races 23 points fast and then assigned a fast 20 for the Swiss Skydiver race. Don't hold me to that, but that's what it looks like based on the data I have. The 101 fit well with his figures going into the race. So I guess you could say "perhaps" the figure should have been 98 instead of 101. I'm not sure that makes a huge difference in what people would have thought of her.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 10:04 AM   #28
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Swiss Skydiver may be one of those filly casualties that never recovers from a grueling 3yr old campaign (see Rachel Alexandra & Silverbulletday).
All three ran vs the boys in their 3yr old season.

Rachel - Preakness, Haskell, Woodward
Silverbulletday - Belmont
Swiss Skydiver - Blue Grass, Preakness
I hope that's not the case.

I've seen enough long hard campaigns over 45 years to have seen plenty of horses that were terrific early in the year tail off at the end of the year in the championship races. The trainers that are spacing races and not shipping all over the place because they want a fresh horse for the Breeder's Cup are not crazy.

The win against Authentic had to have been draining after that tough year, but you hope a freshening will turn them around. McPeek was talking like she was ready for a new peak. He had to have been disappointed.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 10:51 AM   #29
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post

Monomoy Girl, like last year, started her campaign with a relatively low BSF. But last year, she had 8 weeks between starts, had a consistent worktab, and caught a relatively soft field in a Grade 2. This year, she came back on 6 weeks rest and for some reason also took almost 3 weeks to work back from the Bayakoa and then missed another work in early April (15 days between her last 2 workouts).
This is a great paragraph of handicapping and something that entirely eludes me when looking at a horses form.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-18-2021, 11:41 AM   #30
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
It looks like Beyer had the early dirt races 23 points fast and then assigned a fast 20 for the Swiss Skydiver race. Don't hold me to that, but that's what it looks like based on the data I have. The 101 fit well with his figures going into the race. So I guess you could say "perhaps" the figure should have been 98 instead of 101. I'm not sure that makes a huge difference in what people would have thought of her.
Here’s Two of the problems I see with speed figures. First is class, second is how the number relates to other races. I could care less if you break 100 vs horses your supposed to beat . Of course, it appears fast , you had your way around the strip. You get in there vs a horse like Monomoy Girl , 14 wins 17 starts, multiple grade 1 wins over a course of years. There are no “breathers” and there can be not one flaw.... a horse like that can give a crap about numbers..... she’s gonna run fast, most likely she’s gonna run the close to perfect race . She just ran into a mature horse that’s dead game right now and ran the perfect race. Those numbers don’t factor enough to the level of competition IMO. That’s where the money is. It’s no secret any goomba can read the highest fig. Swiss will never beat those two this year unless they regress or she gets better. I don’t care if she gets a 115 the next time she beats the usual tomato can field.

Last edited by burnsy; 04-18-2021 at 11:44 AM.
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:57 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.