Kentucky Oaks

[wreckless]

Originally Posted by bugboy

did my capping for the oaks
watching post parade with my girl friend.
i asked her, who do ya like.
she looks at em, than says no.7
i thought no way.
well thank the Good Lord i put a couple of bucks on it for her.
who da thunk it.
she liked the name.

funny - thats how i got into horse racing.

11 years ago i turned my TV on and saw a horse race (Kentucky Oaks) was on.. my gf said "ohhh, i like the name Rachel Alexandra" so for fun we bet her.

needless to say, I've been a fan of the sport ever since.

[Nitro]

I couldn't believe my eyes when the Tote analysis revealed #7 along with those heavy favorites. Some real nice value too!
Post #11
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160227

[pandy]

Does anyone have the Timeform Speed Figures for yesterday's Kentucky Oaks? The Beyers, Bris, and Equibase speed figures all made Shedaresthedevil look like she was a twenty claimer. Her top Beyer was 86. Gamine was 110, Swiss Skydiver 102, Speech 101. All of the figure makers I saw made Shedaresthedevil look slow. Those figures have to be wrong.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by pandy

Does anyone have the Timeform Speed Figures for yesterday's Kentucky Oaks? The Beyers, Bris, and Equibase speed figures all made Shedaresthedevil look like she was a twenty claimer. Her top Beyer was 86. Gamine was 110, Swiss Skydiver 102, Speech 101. All of the figure makers I saw made Shedaresthedevil look slow. Those figures have to be wrong.

She was much slower than Gamine on Thorograph. She was also quite a bit slower than Speech's last (which was her best) and Swiss Skydiver's best races.

The gap is a bit narrower on Timeform, but that's pace adjusted. She was coming out of a fast paced race. If you notice, Me T Too also came back to run well out of that race after setting the pace there.

[metro]

Shedaresthedevil had a lot of trouble in her other race against Swiss Skydiver. Go back and watch the replay and the gallop out. After that race the connections evidently said "we need to put her in the race earlier." Sure she beat up on some tomato cans in her other preps but the Oaklawn race was more of a tell on her ability imo.

Not reboarding since I only saw her as a more of an underneath type and I was begging for Swiss Skydiver to go by her in the lane yesterday. All my bets keyed on those two but only about 10% of my money was on Sharedaresthedevil in the win spot.

[burnsy]

The problem with Gamine and the numbers is people get this idea in their head that it will translate if a horse stretches out. That is not true until you see the horse do it. Which is why I thought she was vulnerable. Not that I had this winner but I thought Swiss Skydiver was the proven commodity at that distance. This is something I have been taking advantage of for years. It doesn’t always work because some really good horses stretch and continue to win and improve. But when a horse looks that good at one turn then goes to two turns. If that horse can’t duplicate the effort going longer....... you taking a short price on a vulnerable horse. And Baffert was hinting at that by the races he picked. It’s September and this horse is just going for 9 furlongs when everyone says she’s all that. She’s no Rachel, at this point she had won The Preakness, Haskell and was running in the Woodward today. And as witnessed yesterday....... that second turn brought her back to everyone else. That’s my thing about these numbers they don’t go up and down the scale of distance..... but people think they do. I even have questions about carrying them to different surfaces. Some of these guys are good at math but they don’t understand athletes. Any changes in the surface or location is going to be preferred by some and not liked as much by others. The “feel” of the footing makes a difference. You ask any high level human athlete what they like and what they struggle with...... they can verbally tell you. There’s no way to put a number on something like that. Class works the same way. Some of these races at Saratoga these cheaper horses are getting short prices with high numbers and they be getting their asses kicked by horses dropping down to get a win with lower numbers.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

She was much slower than Gamine on Thorograph. She was also quite a bit slower than Speech's last (which was her best) and Swiss Skydiver's best races.

The gap is a bit narrower on Timeform, but that's pace adjusted. She was coming out of a fast paced race. If you notice, Me T Too also came back to run well out of that race after setting the pace there.

I know myself and I'm sure many others didn't think that Gamine would handle the added distance. And maybe the Swiss just bounced. Just based on the final times yesterday, my guess is that the Oaks will come up with a Beyer of over 100, which is a huge improvement for a filly to make in her 10th career start. I try not to go overboard on speed figures but like most people, I do take them into consideration, and I have to admit, even though Shesadaredevil won her last two races handily, the slow speed figures really threw me off. Not that many horses win major, prestigious, Gr1 stakes races when they have figures below 90.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by pandy

I know myself and I'm sure many others didn't think that Gamine would handle the added distance. And maybe the Swiss just bounced. Just based on the final times yesterday, my guess is that the Oaks will come up with a Beyer of over 100, which is a huge improvement for a filly to make in her 10th career start. I try not to go overboard on speed figures but like most people, I do take them into consideration, and I have to admit, even though Shesadaredevil won her last two races handily, the slow speed figures really threw me off. Not that many horses win major, prestigious, Gr1 stakes races when they have figures below 90.

Beyer gave Shesadaredevil a 101, Swiss Skydiver 99, Gamine 96.

I was also a little skeptical of Gamine yesterday for a couple of reasons. I'm sure there's a post about some of it somewhere.

I think the TimeformUS figure probably captured Shesadaredevil's true performance level best, but I didn't think she was good enough to win. Sometimes they just jump up a lot.

Personally (pending review), while I was watching the races yesterday I thought the rail was not best path. It wasn't a death sentence, but I think you were probably better off in the 2-3 path than inside.

The only reason I didn't make a big bet on Swiss Skydiver was because she was on the rail and I felt they were either gun and get pinned on the fail by Gamine, or tuck inside and try to get outside later. Either way, I didn't want 5/2 on a horse that might be inside when I felt that was "probably" not where you wanted your horse to be yesterday. As it was both Gamine and Swiss Skydiver spent time inside. I still need to review the replays.

[GMB@BP]

Brad Cox looks to me like the air apparent on dirt to Bob baffert....his horses run out of their skin on big days.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Brad Cox looks to me like the air apparent on dirt to Bob baffert....his horses run out of their skin on big days.

Unlike Bob, his horses run well on turf too.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Unlike Bob, his horses run well on turf too.

Agree, he is adept at both.