Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-22-2020, 03:34 PM   #1
thetripleclowns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 197
Matt Winn Stakes

We handicapped the Matt Winn stakes happening tomorrow at Churchill Downs. Do you think this race is for Maxfield? And, do you think if he wins this his odd for the derby will increase a lot? Or who is your favorites for this race?

thetripleclowns is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2020, 05:52 PM   #2
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,486
I thought Maxfield got favorable setups in both of his races. I don't like that he's slow out of the gate and coming off a long layoff with bigger targets down the line either. It's also not like he's clearly faster than some of the other contenders in the race. Visually he was very impressive. So the question for me is whether he's a very good horse from Godolphin that just happened to get good setups or a pretty good but overrated horse that took advantage of them. I think it's tough to take a short price on him. But it's not like I've been waiting all winter to play against him either. I'll look at the race tomorrow and see how the track is playing.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-22-2020 at 06:05 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2020, 06:31 PM   #3
thetripleclowns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 197
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I thought Maxfield got favorable setups in both of his races. I don't like that he's slow out of the gate and coming off a long layoff with bigger targets down the line either. It's also not like he's clearly faster than some of the other contenders in the race. Visually he was very impressive. So the question for me is whether he's a very good horse from Godolphin that just happened to get good setups or a pretty good but overrated horse that took advantage of them. I think it's tough to take a short price on him. But it's not like I've been waiting all winter to play against him either. I'll look at the race tomorrow and see how the track is playing.
Agreed! Its hard to bet against him. I think I sway between are they just going to run him tomorrow to run him, because the summer is full of derby prep races. Or are they going to run him hard to get the points now.
thetripleclowns is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 12:52 AM   #4
1GCFAN
Registered User
 
1GCFAN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Grove City, OH
Posts: 428
Maxfield could be another Bolt d' Oro. He was obviously very impressive beating two year olds that weren't ready for two turns. I will look at others.
1GCFAN is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 11:00 AM   #5
Ocala Mike
Registered User
 
Ocala Mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
Using the horse to hit the board somewhere. Agree that Maxfield seems to lay over this bunch, though.
Ocala Mike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 11:24 AM   #6
HandyKapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 153
Scratch
#1 Mystic Guide
#8 Crypto Cash
HandyKapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 12:13 PM   #7
Ocala Mike
Registered User
 
Ocala Mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
My horse (the other Godolphin) scratched. Now will key on the in exactas with a bunch (heavy with Maxfield). Asmussen/Santana hot now.
Ocala Mike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 01:10 PM   #8
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Max, at 1-1/16th not exciting. More of a belmont horse IMHO, not fast, can go 10F+. Not a speedster. For this race I was going to box Those are the only horses I like anyway GL to everyone
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 05:58 PM   #9
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow View Post
Max, at 1-1/16th not exciting. More of a belmont horse IMHO, not fast, can go 10F+. Not a speedster. For this race I was going to box Those are the only horses I like anyway GL to everyone
10 $4.60 $3.80 $2.80
6 . $4.40 $3.00
2 . . $2.80
$2.00 Exacta 10/6 $25.20
$0.50 Trifecta 10/6/2 $20.90 $1.00 trifecta $41.80

Not getting rich but I'll take it.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2020, 06:08 PM   #10
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,486
He ran well.

For a moment I thought I was home with my 6/2 box and win bet on the 6.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2020, 10:26 AM   #11
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,354
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
He ran well.

For a moment I thought I was home with my 6/2 box and win bet on the 6.
Yeah, tell me about it!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2020, 10:54 AM   #12
GaryG
Unreconstructed
 
GaryG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,639
PNEUMATIC for me
__________________
Deo Vindice
GaryG is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2020, 11:10 AM   #13
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,486
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Yeah, tell me about it!
I still feel OK about that bet after the fact.

Everyone knew Maxfield might be really good, but in my mind there were enough question marks to take a shot against him. I think the wound up being overbet a little. IMO, he was more the kind of lightly raced horse from a top barn I generally expect might improve and show he's a solid stakes horse, but he was bet like he had already done it.

The one that hurt me yesterday was Silver Dust. I tossed his last after that start. I had a nice bet on him and thought I had a big shot turning for home. The pace wound up being a little faster than I expected and I think that hurt him and helped Owendale.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-24-2020 at 11:20 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2020, 12:13 PM   #14
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,571
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I still feel OK about that bet after the fact.

......

The one that hurt me yesterday was Silver Dust. I tossed his last after that start. I had a nice bet on him and thought I had a big shot turning for home. The pace wound up being a little faster than I expected and I think that hurt him and helped Owendale.
Owendale went off at a nice price (7/2) but not high enough for me to bite. There were so many other values that were hard to pass up. (Alwaysmining).

Looks like Maxfield is the real deal. Large fields like that are hard to pass. A little silly to say this, it's only his third race, but he's looking almost "battle tested."
Redboard is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2020, 01:06 PM   #15
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,486
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
Owendale went off at a nice price (7/2) but not high enough for me to bite.
Yeah, he went off a little longer than I expected going into the race. With the layoff, cutback, a deep closing style, a race that didn't look like a hot pace was likely, and my thinking that he got a pretty good setup in the Foster, I went into the race with an "against him" bias. Sometimes you have to adjust your thinking a little when the odds are different that you expected. It didn't cost me anything though because I didn't like Everfast. So I wasn't going to catch that exacta even if I used him with Silver Dust.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-24-2020 at 01:08 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.