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Old 02-02-2019, 11:17 AM   #1
TheOracle
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Training To Their Strengths -- many trainers don't do it!!!

There are many Trainers that don't train to their strengths

I've noticed that D Gargan's barn is phenomenal when they have a Morning Line less than 3-1 on the Dirt at Aqueduct!!!

From November 13th, 2014 up until January 5th, 2019 whenever his horses are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line they are winning at 47.9% and you are getting a 27% return on your money per $2 win wager!!!



The interesting thing here is that in Claiming races whenever his horses are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line on the Dirt they are winning at the same rate of 47.9% but you are getting a much higher return at 38% per $2 win wager!!!



Let's keep a sharp eye on his barn in Claiming races on the Dirt at Aqueduct when they are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line!!!

He has these today in the 6th and 9th races
Code:
pick02-02-20191	02-02-2019	6th race	1	Sir Ballantine (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	D Gargan	5/2#	Dirt
pick02-02-20192	02-02-2019	9th race	1	Tax (KY)	Stakes	One And One Eighth Miles	D Gargan	2/1#	Dirt
Unfortunately, away from his strength but less see if he can get these in the winners circle today at Aqueduct!!!
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Old 02-02-2019, 09:42 PM   #2
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
There are many Trainers that don't train to their strengths

I've noticed that D Gargan's barn is phenomenal when they have a Morning Line less than 3-1 on the Dirt at Aqueduct!!!

From November 13th, 2014 up until January 5th, 2019 whenever his horses are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line they are winning at 47.9% and you are getting a 27% return on your money per $2 win wager!!!



The interesting thing here is that in Claiming races whenever his horses are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line on the Dirt they are winning at the same rate of 47.9% but you are getting a much higher return at 38% per $2 win wager!!!



Let's keep a sharp eye on his barn in Claiming races on the Dirt at Aqueduct when they are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line!!!

He has these today in the 6th and 9th races
Code:
pick02-02-20191	02-02-2019	6th race	1	Sir Ballantine (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	D Gargan	5/2#	Dirt
pick02-02-20192	02-02-2019	9th race	1	Tax (KY)	Stakes	One And One Eighth Miles	D Gargan	2/1#	Dirt
Unfortunately, away from his strength but less see if he can get these in the winners circle today at Aqueduct!!!
Gargan split a pair today as #1 Sir Ballantine was off the board but #1 Tax came through for him with the win paying $12.90 across the board!!!

Code:
res02-02-20191 02-02-2019	6th race	1	Sir Ballantine (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	D Gargan	5/2#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	0.0
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
res02-02-20102 02-02-2019	9th race	1	Tax (KY)	Stakes	One And One Eighth Miles	D Gargan	2/1#	Dirt Fast	6.2	3.9	2.8
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:08 AM   #3
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Gargan split a pair today as #1 Sir Ballantine was off the board but #1 Tax came through for him with the win paying $12.90 across the board!!!

Code:
res02-02-20191 02-02-2019	6th race	1	Sir Ballantine (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	D Gargan	5/2#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	0.0
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
res02-02-20102 02-02-2019	9th race	1	Tax (KY)	Stakes	One And One Eighth Miles	D Gargan	2/1#	Dirt Fast	6.2	3.9	2.8
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
Gargan has another today in the 1st race at Aqueduct

Code:
pick02-3-20191	02-03-2019	1st race	2	Pecan Pattie (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	D Gargan	4/5#	Dirt
He’s still going away from his strength but let’s see if he can get this one to the winners circle today!!!

He’ll have to beat Rice’s horse she is also going away from her strength in this race today!!!

Let’s see if he can pull this off today!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 02-03-2019 at 10:22 AM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:57 AM   #4
TheOracle
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Interesting to note, that Chalk players had a great day yesterday at Aqueduct as 9 out of 10 races had win payouts less than $8!!!



Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 went 6 for 13 you made 19% on your money per $2 win wager yesterday but I don't see that happening again so they may have a tough time today!!!
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:20 AM   #5
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Rice's strength has been in Claiming races where her horses are Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 on the Dirt at Aqueduct!!!

Since February 27th 2016, up until yesterday, her Claimers when less than 3-1 in the Morning Line have won 16 of 36 races and you are getting a 27% on your money per $2 win wager!!!




She has these Claimer MLFs less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct

Code:
pick02-03-20191	02-03-2019	3rd race	4	Five Star Bunt (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
pick02-03-20192	02-03-2019	3rd race	6	Blue Belt (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	8/5#	Dirt
Maybe she can continue the positive returns although I like her coming off a loss let's see if she can get one of these to win in the 3rd race today at Aqueduct!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 02-03-2019 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:47 AM   #6
HandyKapper
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Five Star Bunt-Vet Scratch
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:59 AM   #7
TheOracle
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Five Star Bunt-Vet Scratch
Hey Handy

Thanks

She singled #6 Blue Belt maybe she will do something today!!!
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Old 02-03-2019, 09:58 PM   #8
TheOracle
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Gargan has another today in the 1st race at Aqueduct

Code:
pick02-3-20191	02-03-2019	1st race	2	Pecan Pattie (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	D Gargan	4/5#	Dirt
He’s still going away from his strength but let’s see if he can get this one to the winners circle today!!!

He’ll have to beat Rice’s horse she is also going away from her strength in this race today!!!

Let’s see if he can pull this off today!!!
Gargan wasn't able to pull off the win today as Rice's horse #3 New Years Wish was much the best!!!

He went away from his strength and it showed today as #2 Pecan Pattie was off the board

Code:
res02-03-20191	02-03-2019	1st race	2	Pecan Pattie (KY)	Allowance	One Mile	D Gargan	4/5#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	0.0
Let's keep an eye on his Claimers when less than 3-1 in the Morning Line!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 02-03-2019 at 10:04 PM.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:04 PM   #9
TheOracle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Rice's strength has been in Claiming races where her horses are Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 on the Dirt at Aqueduct!!!

Since February 27th 2016, up until yesterday, her Claimers when less than 3-1 in the Morning Line have won 16 of 36 races and you are getting a 27% on your money per $2 win wager!!!




She has these Claimer MLFs less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct

Code:
pick02-03-20191	02-03-2019	3rd race	4	Five Star Bunt (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
pick02-03-20192	02-03-2019	3rd race	6	Blue Belt (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	8/5#	Dirt
Maybe she can continue the positive returns although I like her coming off a loss let's see if she can get one of these to win in the 3rd race today at Aqueduct!!!
I was hoping her Claimer in the 3rd race #6 Blue Belt would have won as #4 Five Star Bunt was scratched but he ran 2nd paying $4.70 across the board

Code:
scr02-03-20191	02-03-2019	3rd race	4	Five Star Bunt (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
res02-03-20192	02-03-2019	3rd race	6	Blue Belt (NY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	8/5#	Dirt Fast	0.0	2.6	2.1
Let's watch her Claimers less than 3-1 in the Morning Line at Aqueduct!!!
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Old 02-04-2019, 09:20 AM   #10
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How is a trainer supposed to train in relation to a ML off in the future??????
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Old 02-04-2019, 12:03 PM   #11
TheOracle
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How is a trainer supposed to train in relation to a ML off in the future??????
Hey El

The title is misleading I should have said where bettors are the most successful based on race condition and MLs

So should have been betting to a Trainers strength where the emphasis is on the bettor and not the Trainers
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Old 02-04-2019, 12:07 PM   #12
elhelmete
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Hey El

The title is misleading I should have said where bettors are the most successful based on race condition and MLs

So should have been betting to a Trainers strength where the emphasis is on the bettor and not the Trainers
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Old 02-07-2019, 03:24 PM   #13
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What does a trainer need to do (training wise) to have more ML less than 3/1?
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Old 02-07-2019, 07:50 PM   #14
TheOracle
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What does a trainer need to do (training wise) to have more ML less than 3/1?
Hey Dave

The title is misleading it should have been based on the side of the bettor’s strength rather than that of the Trainer in relation to the Morning Line

In any case, let’s use Rice as an example



I’m quite sure that it did not take her by surprise that the 36 Claimers, she had at the time of the post, would go off as Favorites in the Morning Line

So to answer your question whatever it is she did to train those Claimers whether it’s dropping them in class, cutting back the distance or switching Jockeys she should continue to do that when she gets the opportunity

If the oddsmaker can see she has a good horse then she should be able to do the same when it comes to her stable

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 02-09-2019 at 01:53 AM.
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