Odds Line?

[riskman]

From my experience, the betting line portion of the handicapping process does not exist for most of the everyday horseplayers. Even for players who put serious money through the windows. Just look around if you are at a race track, OTB, or racebook in a casino. You will see all kinds of notations on their DRF , sheets or PP's. It is rare to see a player actually assigns a probability or price they will accept on their contenders. If you have done the work to handicap you should have an idea what you will accept as a payoff.
When you get into playing the game for profit instead of for winners, you will ask, "Who is the value?" The name of the game is to become decision-oriented, not selection-oriented.That is a whole other subject.

[duckhunter3]

I ALWAYS use an odds line on win, place and show bets, and calculate fair pay on DD's and exactas and compare to the "will pays".

the odds or betting line is pretty much computer generated although I do tinker with it by playing some "what if" games. I try to demand odds around double what I perceive fair odds to be in ANY bet, to protect against mistakes in my fair odds, and other vagaries of horse racing that affect the outcome often- horse stumbling, getting blocked, jockey losing whip, etc., etc., ad infinitum, ad nauseam.

Of course I lose some action being that restrictive but I agree with other posts here, that VALUE and decision orientation is the way to go to make money. If you are just playing for fun, then you can be selection oriented and if you are good enough I guess you can win. But actually that is tougher than just betting the value among the real contenders.

Just my thoughts.

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by nobeyerspls

I don't know what an odds-line is so I didn't vote. I never play a horse straight if the odds are less than 7/2. I expected 15-1 on a horse today and only got 6-1 but I couldn't pass just because she was bet down. Do people actually do that?

Ditto! I'm a spot player and most of the time my horses are bet down and the biggest majority of my winners are bet down from the ML. When I say bet down I mean from a 20/1 ML down to 8-10/1. I usually take this as a positive sign but I have a minny as to what I'll accept. I also have a particular type of play that the public almost always overlooks. Yesterday I had a play of each type. One was 20/1 ML and closed at 8/1 and it won. I feel sure the stable bet this horse and I would have been a fool to pass it up because it was "ONLY" 8/1. The other play was 15/1 ML and closed at 44/1 and ran 2nd. The horses that scare me the most are horses that are bet way down to favoritism and I can't see any reason why it should be bet.

[duckhunter3]

The opposite can happen also- namely, a long shot becoming even more of a long shot at post (going up from ML) and still winning.

Yesterday, in TDN 7, #10 was 10-1 ML as I recall and went off at 45-1. This horse was one of my 4 contenders and pace projections (which are just educated guesses, in my opinion) showed him to finish within 1 length (.2 seconds) of the 8-5 post time favorite. Since we keep time at race tracks in antiquated fifth's of a second, this is a virtually meaningless and indistinguishable difference.

How can anyone resist a contender at 45-1 whose pace figures show he really can win. Well, he did win and only a few bucks on a win bet made a very nice return, and the exacta of 10 over the underlays paid $464.

Betting lines and isolating contenders are very important considerations. this horse had fair odds of 6-1 on my betting line and was a win bet for me at 9-1. 45-1 is almost an 800% advantage over fair odds.

Of course I did waste an exacta bet of the horses that could run to the pars over the 10, but with this return that was no big deal.

[dvlander]

I love the concept of oddslines. However, I'm wondering if anyone else experiences the same phenomenom that I do when using them.

Say for instance that I create what I believe is an accurate odds line process. I validate it by looking at an example of 200 historical contenders that I projected to be 2-1 and they come in at right about 33% winners as they should.

It seems like more often than not, those contenders that go to post at 8-5 or less win at a higher clip than 33% and the contenders that I project to be 4-1 or higher win at a much lower clip than 33%.

The end result of course is that I have an accurate oddsline that struggles to break even much less end up with a positive ROI.

Yes, this is a virgin post.

[dvlander]

I meant to say "go to post at 4-1".

[Jerfi]

Everyone uses odds lines.. .whether they say they do, or not.

Example: If you 'just pick horses' ... and the one you pick is a 1/9 horse on the board, you probably will not bet it. That's using an odds line.

If you just pick horses, but won't bet anything less than 2/1...that's still using an odds line.

If you select a horse that's 7/1 on the board, but you 'know' it will win, then, odds are unimportant, perhaps, but you still consider it.

[duckhunter3]

I am not sure I understand your dilemma, so maybe what I am saying here is not right.

You seem concerned that your odds line is accurate but only gives you even money. Here is how I view it.

The odds line if accurate only tells you one important thing- the percentage of winners you have to have to BREAK EVEN.

We don't want to break even. We want a profit. So the way I handle it is I don't bet horses who are going off at what my odds line says is their accurate chance of winning. I only bet those that are DOUBLE (or close to double) what my odds line says are their fair chances. So if my odds line says Horse X is fair odds of 2-1, I want close to 4-1 before I bet. Or I don't bet that horse, and maybe not that race. We want a premium for a profit. And there are so many uncontrollable things in a race that can affect the outcome, you must give yourself some cushion to win.

So I look at a bunch of tracks, and analyze a bunch of races, and select, say 15 to consider betting, and I am lucky if I bet 5 or 10 of those. But those bets will be at a big premium, and over the long haul, I don't think you can lose doing it that way.

please excuse if I didn't respond to what you were concerned about.

All the best.

[dvlander]

Originally Posted by duckhunter3

We don't want to break even. We want a profit. So the way I handle it is I don't bet horses who are going off at what my odds line says is their accurate chance of winning. I only bet those that are DOUBLE (or close to double) what my odds line says are their fair chances. So if my odds line says Horse X is fair odds of 2-1, I want close to 4-1 before I bet.
All the best.

Thanks for your answer Duck and I understand what you are saying and the concept of only playing substantial overlays. My point was simply that those overlays that I project to be fair odds 2-1 that go to post at 4-1 do not typically win at the same 33% clip that all my projected 2-1 contenders do as a whole.

They win enough to be marginally profitable but I think it is easy to get in trouble with odds lines if one calculates an edge to be more than what it really is. All projected 2-1 contenders are not created equal.

[duckhunter3]

Originally Posted by dvlander

Thanks for your answer Duck and I understand what you are saying and the concept of only playing substantial overlays. My point was simply that those overlays that I project to be fair odds 2-1 that go to post at 4-1 do not typically win at the same 33% clip that all my projected 2-1 contenders do as a whole.

They win enough to be marginally profitable but I think it is easy to get in trouble with odds lines if one calculates an edge to be more than what it really is. All projected 2-1 contenders are not created equal.

Absolutely correct, dvlander. any time the public disagrees substantially with your opinion on a horse's chance of winning, there is always the chance that you have mis-judged the horse's chances of winning.

HOWEVER, if the odds are high enough, I don't see how you get hurt. In otherwords, if the post time odds are 4-1, the horse in the long run should win at least 1 in 5 races. And if THE PUBLIC IS WRONG, and he really is a 3-1 horse, then you have A VERY, VERY NICE EDGE. But if the public is right, you just break even.

It all gets down to who is right and who is wrong about the horse's chances over the long haul.

[duckhunter3]

To take this a little further, dvlander is rightfully concerned that his horses with fair odds of 2-1 on his betting line which go to post at 4-1 don't win as often as 2-1 horses should win. No doubt that is true because the public is better at making a line than any of us or maybe all of us combined.

But, if you demand, say, almost double in post time odds over your fair odds line, then you will be easily compensating for your "overestimation" of the horse's chances to win in your betting line.

I realize you miss some plays. but this should be a safe and profitable way to go, IMHO.

[ManeMediaMogul]

If you make a line that reflects the horses' true chances of winning, the 8/5 shot on your line should win more than the 4/1 shot on your line - regardless of what the public makes them. That is the whole idea.

Also, the whiners among you who are kevetching about last minute odds drops - it goes the other way too. I made a horse 2/1 at Gulfstream...bet him at 3/1 and ended up with 5/1 when the late money fancied another runner.

Going to the Horseplayers Expo last year and listening to Barry Meadow changed my life as a horseplayer. There is no doubt in my mind that a true odds line is the way, the truth and the light for successful turf speculation.

Most players don't take the time and effort and that gives you an automatic edge!

[Hank]

Originally Posted by ManeMediaMogul

If you make a line that reflects the horses' true chances of winning, the 8/5 shot on your line should win more than the 4/1 shot on your line - regardless of what the public makes them. That is the whole idea.

Also, the whiners among you who are kevetching about last minute odds drops - it goes the other way too. I made a horse 2/1 at Gulfstream...bet him at 3/1 and ended up with 5/1 when the late money fancied another runner.

Going to the Horseplayers Expo last year and listening to Barry Meadow changed my life as a horseplayer. There is no doubt in my mind that a true odds line is the way, the truth and the light for successful turf speculation.

Most players don't take the time and effort and that gives you an automatic edge!

This is true no doubt,but given the large amount of unknowables how accurate is any capper created odds line??Most computer created lines rely on a single pace line[ I think]and this is dicey at best.

[Tipster1]

[QUOTE=dvlander]
Say for instance that I create what I believe is an accurate odds line process. I validate it by looking at an example of 200 historical contenders that I projected to be 2-1 and they come in at right about 33% winners as they should.

It seems like more often than not, those contenders that go to post at 8-5 or less win at a higher clip than 33% and the contenders that I project to be 4-1 or higher win at a much lower clip than 33%.

The end result of course is that I have an accurate oddsline that struggles to break even much less end up with a positive ROI.
[QUOTE]

This can be all tested and queried through a database. And don't worry this happens in every odds line I ever tested. And I'm not talking about 200 contenders but testing them through tens of thousands of races. To date I never seen one that showed profits. Not one.

What this means that even if your odds line wins EXACTLY at the expected rate which I seen some actually do. This means your 2/1 shots win 33%, your 4/1 shots win 20%, etc. and this is OVERALL. The problem is those specific odd value horses are not all created equal. If you retest those 2/1 shots when they are are at under 2/1 post odds they win much higher than 33%. When you retest them at over 2/1 post odds they win way under 33%. So we can not simply bet any odds line horse when they are going off at higher odds than the expected win rate and think we are going to show profits. If this was possible we would be have it made.

As I said every odds line that I ever tested through large sample, yes even the very accurate ones, never have extracted profits when based on using them against real post time odds. Not even close to breakeven! And yes I ran them against all increments of odd line values when compared to actual post time values.

[Hank]

[QUOTE=Tipster1][QUOTE=dvlander]
Say for instance that I create what I believe is an accurate odds line process. I validate it by looking at an example of 200 historical contenders that I projected to be 2-1 and they come in at right about 33% winners as they should.

It seems like more often than not, those contenders that go to post at 8-5 or less win at a higher clip than 33% and the contenders that I project to be 4-1 or higher win at a much lower clip than 33%.

The end result of course is that I have an accurate oddsline that struggles to break even much less end up with a positive ROI.

This can be all tested and queried through a database. And don't worry this happens in every odds line I ever tested. And I'm not talking about 200 contenders but testing them through tens of thousands of races. To date I never seen one that showed profits. Not one.

What this means that even if your odds line wins EXACTLY at the expected rate which I seen some actually do. This means your 2/1 shots win 33%, your 4/1 shots win 20%, etc. and this is OVERALL. The problem is those specific odd value horses are not all created equal. If you retest those 2/1 shots when they are are at under 2/1 post odds they win much higher than 33%. When you retest them at over 2/1 post odds they win way under 33%. So we can not simply bet any odds line horse when they are going off at higher odds than the expected win rate and think we are going to show profits. If this was possible we would be have it made.

As I said every odds line that I ever tested through large sample, yes even the very accurate ones, never have extracted profits when based on using them against real post time odds. Not even close to breakeven! And yes I ran them against all increments of odd line values when compared to actual post time values.

nice post Tipster.