Structuring Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers

[erikeepper]

Ok, so we actually have something better here in Skandinavia.

We can check out in advance how much different kind of combinations are going to return! And if you are using your own prob.estimates, you can only play the overlays. I am actually really suprised that it is not possible there.

but I am suprised a lot of things, like why the minimum is $2 for pick six which is really difficult game but then a lot easier P4 has smaller minimums?

[1st time lasix]

always check the takepouts at various racks with pic threes,,,,they vary widely . never play chalk in race one of a three.....if you have to include-pass

[JohnGalt1]

With the $.50 minimums instead of the 3x1x1, 1x3x1, and 1x1x3 tickets, I'll do 3x3x3 for $13.50 and a ticket with my prime bets, say 1x2x1 for $.50 or a dollar--cost one or two dollars.

In the three ticket bets, if all your B horses win, you get nothing. In my way, at least I'd win the the pick three on my $13.50 ticket. If my A horses win I'll win for either $1 or $1.50.

In pick 3's and 4's I put every horse that has a good chance to win on a ticket. If I need 4x6x2x5 in a pick 4 I won't play. But say the ticket is 2x6x1x3, I'll play if it includes horses with high enough odds. Ticket two might be my win bets 1x6x1x2, (the second leg a chaos race.) Cost $18 for ticket one and $6 for ticket two.

[Qstick333]

I apologize for such a late response. A 2 year old and pregnant wife took up a bit f time this week

I thoroughly enjoyed reading the responses and am starting to incorporate the different strategies into making a concerted effort of playing the P3 and P4's. I did manage to hit a $102/p3 at CT tonight...which I had 2x due to a more efficient strategy mentioned in this thread.

Thanks again and I am grateful for the help,

Zach

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by Qstick333

I apologize for such a late response. A 2 year old and pregnant wife took up a bit f time this week

I thoroughly enjoyed reading the responses and am starting to incorporate the different strategies into making a concerted effort of playing the P3 and P4's. I did manage to hit a $102/p3 at CT tonight...which I had 2x due to a more efficient strategy mentioned in this thread.

Thanks again and I am grateful for the help,

Zach

Congrats! Keep us posted on what you learn as you try some of these new strategies. Love to hear what you think works and doesn't work for you (and why).

[Qstick333]

Originally Posted by CBedo

Congrats! Keep us posted on what you learn as you try some of these new strategies. Love to hear what you think works and doesn't work for you (and why).

Will do for sure. I'll obviously need more of a sample to get a real clue of what is working or not. 2 obvious benefits right off the top.

1. The ability to invest the same amount and have the opportunity to have multiple tickets. This paid off tonight and I would not have had multiples without a change of thought.

2. A little more attention is paid in handicapping, which cannot be a bad thing. Forcing myself to really find a key horse in each race, if one exists, has me paying a bit more attention which is a good wake up call. Sometimes, when things become routine, the mental lapses kick in. This is a nice way to really zero in my focus.

One additional question. Once it gets down to the final leg and you have a live ticket do you ever hedge the pick3 ticket cost with additional wagers or just let it play out? I am making the transition since it is much harder for me to bet in real time, but I would still prefer to play the proper way when the opportunity presents itself.

Thanks again,

Zach

[JohnGalt1]

One additional question. Once it gets down to the final leg and you have a live ticket do you ever hedge the pick3 ticket cost with additional wagers or just let it play out? Thanks again,

Zach[/QUOTE]


No, I play it out. If the horse(s) is who I think will win when I made my ticket, that's who I stick with. If I lose that bet, another playable exotic is coming up.

Some play so much "insurance" bets or play too many combinations, when they win they barely break even.

Congrats on your CT hit.

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by Qstick333

Will do for sure. I'll obviously need more of a sample to get a real clue of what is working or not. 2 obvious benefits right off the top.

1. The ability to invest the same amount and have the opportunity to have multiple tickets. This paid off tonight and I would not have had multiples without a change of thought.

2. A little more attention is paid in handicapping, which cannot be a bad thing. Forcing myself to really find a key horse in each race, if one exists, has me paying a bit more attention which is a good wake up call. Sometimes, when things become routine, the mental lapses kick in. This is a nice way to really zero in my focus.

One additional question. Once it gets down to the final leg and you have a live ticket do you ever hedge the pick3 ticket cost with additional wagers or just let it play out? I am making the transition since it is much harder for me to bet in real time, but I would still prefer to play the proper way when the opportunity presents itself.

Thanks again,

Zach

Your second point is a great one. Having to think about structuring tickets instead of caveman 3x3x3 should hopefully have a positive impact on your handicapping. I know for sure, it keeps me from spending 27 or more on a ticket that returns 8.00 when all low priced horses come in.


As far as your question, different people do different things. For me, as usual, the answer is "it depends," lol. In most normal pick 3 circumstances, I trust my handicapping and let it ride, but I also am not against insurance if used wisely. I think about it like any insurance a business would buy. In general, it lowers your overall returns, but it smooths out some volatility, and because of that quality, it could allow you to bet larger amounts and grow your bankroll faster.

In a more concrete explanation, there are a couple times I use it more often than not. 1) If I alive for a HUGE payoff, and there is a horse or two that I struggled with leaving off my ticket. 2) Sometimes I get to the last leg and it's a straight maiden race, and someone is taking more money than I would have expected, especially a first time starter. In my opinion, you don't want to take insurance just so you can cash a ticket. I think most of us at times, slide into wanting to cash tickets and hit winners, instead of finding value, which should always be the focus.

How I take insurance is different in different circumstances as well. Sometimes it's a straight win bet. Sometimes if the horses in my third leg are good odds horses, I might use them underneath in exactas and/or trifectas. When there are rolling pick 3s and doubles, I might also structure an insurance ticket starting with the last leg (I don't do this very often) that I'm alive in.

[The Judge]

can't post it now I would have to find it then re-read it then have time to post it. I posted it before so maybe it can be located and re- posted. One of the figures was put down wrong so the post correcting it would also have to be posted. But the error was pretty obvious so maybe not.

It actually gave the amount of the payout's when combined with horses at certain odds at Golden Gate Fields. So some pic 3's weren't worth betting even if you won because the payout would be to low.

This knowledge was combined with the level you made a horse regarding of odds
level 1 level 2 level 3. This was then combined with certain Golden Rules to decide the probable payoff based on the ticket's you want to bet. Some warrant no bet some warrant more $ then an other ticket.

This was done in the 80's when the pic 3 was 6, 7 and 8th race only.

Maybe someone can find the old post I couldn't the name Ron Cox should be in there somewhere.

[point given]

Read Steve Crists blog at DRF to see how he plays multi race wagers and how he takes out , ' insanity insurance " on his p6 plays when live to the last race. last week he had $2880 into a p6 and was live for a 9300 and 24000 payouts so he made win bets on the 3 horses he didnot have which would cover the bets he had into it. He won the 9300 but i don't know how much the insurance cost. Today, Sunday he was live to the 6 and 9 in the p6 at Saratoga paying 9k and 11k and came up a neck short and took out insurance which didnot workout for him either .

I take out insurance when i feel exposed to a horse or two and try to recoup the cost of the bets. Though i use DD,exactas etc instead of win bets. I pay attention to willpays on the tote to see where the $ is going for the last 2 legs of the sequence as most do. Good luck.

[Sinner369]

Ron Cox's "Triple Method" (pic-3)

He starts with 3 Golden Rules.

#1 Never Play Three "A" Horses.
#2 Any Ticket That Includes A Level Two or Three Horse, Must Contain A "C" Horse ,or Three "B" Horses.
#3 Any Ticket Must Contain At Least One Level One Horse.

An "A" Horse is any horse with odds of 5/2 or lower "B" Horse is any horse with odds of 3/1 to 6/1 , "C" horse is any horse with odds of 7/1 or higher.

Designing Your Tickets Rank---Place selections by level 1,2,or3

Level one--- Your choice to win the race. May include multiple Horses if you can not seperarte them.

Level two---Your second level of contenders if you are not totally convinced one of your level one horses will win

Level three--- Horses with an outside chance. Have some attribute which prevents them from being total eliminations. Example

Race 6
3 A level one

Race 7
6 A /4 A/2 B / 7 C (Only 6 is a level one horse)

Race 8
2 A/ 4 B like the same

Level One Tickets

3A 6A 2A No Play Rule #1 next ticket 3 A 6 A 4 B is a play . You just continue on designing your ticket and applying the rules

When you find tickets that contain level of horses that you like the same you should bet more on the tickets that pay the most.

A couple examples of a level Two Tickets

3/4/2(AAA) rule one no play, 3/4/4 (AAB)No Play Rule 2, 3/2/2 (AAB)No play rule 2, 3/2/4/(ABB) No play rule 2,3/7/2 (AAC) Play 3/7/4(ABC) Play.

This was based on 139 Pic 3 in Nor-Cal and the payouts this was done in the early 90's or late 80's.

AAA 6X---$60
BBB 7X---$460
CCC 2X---$87
AAB 22X--$87
AAC 18X--$258
BBA 20X--$167
BBC 17X--$1,090
CCA 4X---$1,033
CCB 5X---$5,112
ABC 27X--$867

Conclusions AAA seldom occurs and pays nothing when it does
When two AA horsrs come in C comes in with them nearly as of the as a B horse and pays 3x as much

When two B horses come ;in C come is with them nearly as often as A and pays 5x as much
The pic 3 only average over $200 when a C horse is involved or 3 B horses

Enjoy, Sinner

[The Judge]

With one major correction 3 C horses C-C-C occurred 2 times paid
$24,000 and $5,396.

The idea is that you now have an idea as to how much a pic 3 will pay and you can put more money on the tickets you like the most that should pay the most.

So it gives you a better handle on risk and potential reward (overlays).

This was done at a time when there were no rolling pic 3's nor trifecta's so I think the pic 3 pools might be smaller now. This method would have to be researched to see if it is still viable and I would suppose it could be computerized.

Example of a Ticket

Race 6 Race 7 Race8

3A 6A 2A
4A 4B
2B
7C

Level One Tickets
3A 3A
6A No Play Rule 1 6A =$87.00
2A 4B

Level Two Tickets

(AAA) (AAB) $258 (AAB) $867
3 3 3
4 n/p rule1,2 4 n/p 2 n/p
2 4 rule2 2 rule2
(AAB)
3 3 3
2 n/p rule2 7 7
4 2 4

"Since all of these tickets contain two level one horses and one level two , you like them equally and should bet more on those tickets paying more."

There are a total of eight tickets and only three of them are playable. Even if correct only 37% chance of winning, so according to Ron he would not invest a large amount on this day.

[The Judge]

Can't get the numbers to line up correctly.

Race 6 like only one horse #3 A
race 7 have 4 horses #6A,is level 1 and 3horses are level 2, 4A, 2B, 7C, race 8 you have 2 level 1 horses 2A 4B. There are no level 3 horses.

Level One ticket
(AAA) 3,4,2, no play rule 1, next ticket 3A,6A,4B can play these are all level 1 horses and you have a B horse (3-1 to 6-1) expected payout $87.00.

Level Two Ticket 3,4,2 (AAA) no play rule next ticket 3,4,4 (AAB) no play rule 2, next ticket (AAB) 3,2,2 no play rule 2. Next ticket (ABB) 3,2,4 no play rule 2
next ticket (AAC $258) 3,7,2 paly, next ticket (ABC $867) 3,7,4 play.

When you get level 3 horses you just continue to make tickets.

[Sinner369]

What I like to see is Rules (Guidelines is a better word) on Tickets to avoid because of the low payoffs.

Especially for the Pick 4........for example AAAA is definely one to avoid because of the low payoff and also low percentage of hit rate.........assuming A is the chalk horses.

How many other Pick 4 tickets to avoid.................???

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by The Judge

Can't get the numbers to line up correctly.

Race 6 like only one horse #3 A
race 7 have 4 horses #6A,is level 1 and 3horses are level 2, 4A, 2B, 7C, race 8 you have 2 level 1 horses 2A 4B. There are no level 3 horses.

Level One ticket
(AAA) 3,4,2, no play rule 1, next ticket 3A,6A,4B can play these are all level 1 horses and you have a B horse (3-1 to 6-1) expected payout $87.00.

Level Two Ticket 3,4,2 (AAA) no play rule next ticket 3,4,4 (AAB) no play rule 2, next ticket (AAB) 3,2,2 no play rule 2. Next ticket (ABB) 3,2,4 no play rule 2
next ticket (AAC $258) 3,7,2 paly, next ticket (ABC $867) 3,7,4 play.

When you get level 3 horses you just continue to make tickets.

Did not look closely, but for Level One Ticket = 3A, 6A, 4B = should this not be a no play rule.......... AAB.....pay out $87........???