About six months until TOGA any predictions?

[westernmassbob]

Just spoke to an official with Saratoga Chamber of Commerce. Room reservations for the Saratoga season are down 25% at this same point last year. This does not include any official AirBnB or private rentals info. There seems to be a bit of skepticism and apprehension given how covid restrictions could pan out. He specifically stated that even if there are zero restrictions in the summer that tourism in Saratoga County is projected to be down 20-30%. Given this information track attendance will surely be down from 2019 numbers. It would be silly to believe otherwise.

[cj]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

Just spoke to an official with Saratoga Chamber of Commerce. Room reservations for the Saratoga season are down 25% at this same point last year. This does not include any official AirBnB or private rentals info. There seems to be a bit of skepticism and apprehension given how covid restrictions could pan out. He specifically stated that even if there are zero restrictions in the summer that tourism in Saratoga County is projected to be down 20-30%. Given this information track attendance will surely be down from 2019 numbers. It would be silly to believe otherwise.

Got a nice reservation for Whitney week at the Holiday Inn, great rate, and can cancel up until a few days before.

[Redboard]

Seems to be plenty of motels/AirBnbs available at this point. The biggie is tickets. If they keep this 10% attendance restriction model, then that's a deal breaker. They would easily be sucked up by the clubhouse boxes, former season ticket owners and scalpers.

I dont see how they'll be able to maintain social distance in the picnic area. When the race goes off, everyone crowds around the monitors or the rail. Painting six foot circles on the ground there, doesnt make sense.

By July, everyone who wants a vaccine should have gotten one. I would think the 10% plan would be revised by then.

But one thing is certain, at this point nobody really knows for sure.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Got a nice reservation for Whitney week at the Holiday Inn, great rate, and can cancel up until a few days before.

When I go, that's where I usually stay. It's just about close enough to walk to the track, close to enough to walk into town for dinner, music and drinks, and close enough to stagger home at night.

[Redboard]

Cuomo to end mandatory quarantine for domestic travel in April

https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/gov-an...lers-in-april/


Didn't expect this to happen so soon. This is one hurdle that we won't have to worry about. Although de Blasio is slamming this policy change; I don't believe he can do anything about Albany/Saratoga rules.

[westernmassbob]

Just over 4 months to go and rumors are percolating for the Saratoga meet. Similar to Monmouth it is said Saratoga will not allow outside food to come in. I kind of like this idea only because it gives on site food and beverage to sort of make up for last years losses. They will also have drive up betting available. At this point they are talking 50% capacity limits but that could change for weekends and special race days.

[classhandicapper]

The combination of the number of people that have already been infected (which is way higher than the official count based on the antibody studies) plus the number that have been and that are getting vaccinated daily is getting to the point where by the end of May we could be close to the end of limitations on the number of people being able to go to racetracks. I'm being conservative. We are vaccinating 3m a day and the vaccination rate among the higher risk older and sick groups is already very high now. If I don't make an appearance at Saratoga this year on a major stake day I'll be shocked and disappointed and I've been extremely risk averse throughout.

[classhandicapper]

I think Saratoga is going to have a huge year this year.

Last year I thought the lack of live attendance would hurt Saratoga. The meet was considered very successful because handle was roughly flat. However, some tracks were WAY up during that same period because of all the Covid moving parts. Money was still flowing heavily at that time. I think the lack of live attendance DID hurt quite a bit last year even if some players opened ADW accounts. Otherwise handle would have been way up. That incremental live attendance is going to be a huge tailwind this year if they can carry the momentum forward from what appears to be a very good meet at Belmont so far.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The combination of the number of people that have already been infected (which is way higher than the official count based on the antibody studies) plus the number that have been and that are getting vaccinated daily is getting to the point where by the end of May we could be close to the end of limitations on the number of people being able to go to racetracks. I'm being conservative. We are vaccinating 3m a day and the vaccination rate among the higher risk older and sick groups is already very high now. If I don't make an appearance at Saratoga this year on a major stake day I'll be shocked and disappointed and I've been extremely risk averse throughout.

I was at Belmont mask free yesterday. It's good to be back to normal. Saratoga here I come.

[CheckMark]

Looks like 100% capacity here at Saratoga this summer

Predictions are for me are:

The handle will be the highest it has ever been since there will be more people wanting to come out and play the races. Should see $706 million+ for all sources

Either Irad or Jose will be the favorite to win the Jockey title this year and between Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher for the Trainer title but watch out for Linda Rice this year too We could see some upsets in the making if it doesn't go their way for the Ortiz brothers or Pletcher/Brown

Owners between Klaravich or Michael Dubb as the top 2 for Owner title

Hope to see some upsets this year for Graded stakes races too!


Good luck to everyone playing the 2021 Saratoga meet!

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think Saratoga is going to have a huge year this year.

Last year I thought the lack of live attendance would hurt Saratoga. The meet was considered very successful because handle was roughly flat. However, some tracks were WAY up during that same period because of all the Covid moving parts. Money was still flowing heavily at that time. I think the lack of live attendance DID hurt quite a bit last year even if some players opened ADW accounts. Otherwise handle would have been way up. That incremental live attendance is going to be a huge tailwind this year if they can carry the momentum forward from what appears to be a very good meet at Belmont so far.

If Del Mar can fill its races, it's going to be huge down there too.

[westernmassbob]

100% capacity is great news ! Only problem is will there be enough help for the attendance? Finding seasonal workers is a huge issue country wide. I hope Saratoga finds ways to overcome that. In any event i still believe track attendance will be down from 2019. Fans that died of covid, fans that are still afraid to be around groups of people and fans that don’t have that extra money to come to the track. Silly to think otherwise.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

100% capacity is great news ! Only problem is will there be enough help for the attendance? Finding seasonal workers is a huge issue country wide. I hope Saratoga finds ways to overcome that. In any event i still believe track attendance will be down from 2019. Fans that died of covid, fans that are still afraid to be around groups of people and fans that don’t have that extra money to come to the track. Silly to think otherwise.

A simple "everything I predicted was wrong....thankfully" would have sufficed. Pressing it with more nonsense wasn't necessary. The only way this meet isn't record setting in pretty much every positive way is if there is significant rain, particularly on Saturdays. Advance sales are through the roof.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by the little guy

A simple "everything I predicted was wrong....thankfully" would have sufficed. Pressing it with more nonsense wasn't necessary. The only way this meet isn't record setting in pretty much every positive way is if there is significant rain, particularly on Saturdays. Advance sales are through the roof.

Andy, do think that it's necessary to purchase tickets in advance? Our group (2-3 couples) is planning a trip to Saratoga this summer but cannot seem to coordinate a best time for all of us, at this time. Thanks.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

Andy, do think that it's necessary to purchase tickets in advance? Our group (2-3 couples) is planning a trip to Saratoga this summer but cannot seem to coordinate a best time for all of us, at this time. Thanks.

Not to get in ( maybe Travers Day ).