The New Pace Makes The Race

[Actor]

I've been reading The New Pace Makes The Race by Hambleton and Schmidt. The authors describe the Early Pace Rating (EPR) and Final Fraction Rating (FFR). While the authors say that "these number can easily be done with a hand calculator" I have been working on computerizing them.

However, I cannot help but note that the BRIS files have several fields designated as "pace figs." Could a couple of these fields be used in lieu of the EPR and FFR?

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Actor

I've been reading The New Pace Makes The Race by Hambleton and Schmidt. The authors describe the Early Pace Rating (EPR) and Final Fraction Rating (FFR). While the authors say that "these number can easily be done with a hand calculator" I have been working on computerizing them.

However, I cannot help but note that the BRIS files have several fields designated as "pace figs." Could a couple of these fields be used in lieu of the EPR and FFR?

How would you compare horses FFR when one is from a 6.5 fur race to a horse that ran in a 8.5 fur race....?

There must be some pars to look at ...so a hand calculator is not the only thing needed..

IMO of course...

Mike

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

There must be some pars to look at ...so a hand calculator is not the only thing needed..

IIRC, the adjustment for "pars" is based on the differences in the best time at each distance from each track over the last three years. Possible to do with a hand calculator if you're doing a track or two, but more easily calculated in Excel or an app for normal multi-track handicapping.

@Actor -- I would think that the appropriate Bris pace fig (starting at field 766) and the Late Pace fig (816-825) would be close enough. With these kind of numbers though, sometimes TPR will be right, and sometimes Bris or Trackmaster or the DRF numbers will be. Any of these figs can be "best" for any particular race. For example, maybe Bris figs at 8f for claimers under $40k are the best. And maybe TPR for NW1 at 6f at SoCal tracks are the best at that distance/class. It would take a helluva lot of research (and money) to compare numbers from different sources. There are no magic figures out there, but the best I ever used were CJ's pacefigs, now found in TimeformUS. Good luck with your coding.

[Tom]

Dave Schwartz's pars work well for this - started using them with TPR when the first book came out a long time ago.


ie, Track A, 10K for 6 furlongs is 46.2 112.1 (25.4)

In TPR, that is 88 / 81 169

Track B it is 45.1 111.2 (26.1)

In TPR that is 94 / 79 173

Going by TPR, 169 to 173 is +4 for a horse shipping from A to B

OR.....

Track A to B is +6 for EPR and -2 for FFR.

Track B runs faster early than A does, so the larger adjustment for EPR is needed.

This is exactly the same situation I found with Aqu inner and Meadowlands, back when I started using TPR, and more recently, Aqu and FL.

Dave's Trk/Dst/Srf cvs file is perfect for this - just set up two cells to represent the ship to track and then calculate the adjustments for every track

[MacTavish]

Originally Posted by Actor

I've been reading The New Pace Makes The Race by Hambleton and Schmidt. The authors describe the Early Pace Rating (EPR) and Final Fraction Rating (FFR). While the authors say that "these number can easily be done with a hand calculator" I have been working on computerizing them.

However, I cannot help but note that the BRIS files have several fields designated as "pace figs." Could a couple of these fields be used in lieu of the EPR and FFR?

That's a favorite book of mine. (I have an autographed copy by Dick Schmidt but I could never make contact with Tom Hambleton before he passed away.) Yes, you could use BRIS pace and speed figs but I suggest that you contact Ted Craven at Pace and Cap. He's done it all for you in the RDSS program. It's reasonably priced and there's not a nicer guy anywhere.

Mick

[Tom]

Using BRIS E2 and LP numbers work pretty good.
I suggest you add one more rating - Sartin's Factor W
This would be E2 + (E2 + LP) putting more emphasis on early.