60 percent wins current year

[sbcaris]

Here is an interesting trend statistic. In the last 10 years 6 Derby winners won at least 60 percent of their races as a 3 year old. These horses comprised approx 23% of the starters for an average of 4 qualifiers per year. 60 percent winners divided by 23 percent of the starters gives a strong impact value of 2.60. These horses are winning the roses around 2 1/2 times more than expected.

The exceptions were Orb in 2013, Animal kingdom in 2011 and Super Saver in 2010. and mine that bird in 2009.

I did research on the years 2000-2009 for curiosity and found that 6 Derby winners in that period did NOT obtain 60% wins as a three year old. So the method did not work as well in that time frame 2000-2009. Could it be due to the changes in the point system which eliminates sprinters in recent years. i would think so.

[cj]

Orb was 3 for 3 as a 3yo before the Derby. He wasn't very good after, but what happens afterwards isn't relevant, is it? Also, Super Saver was 11 years ago.

I think this is largely a points system thing. It began in 2013, and since winning preps has become almost essential unless you win via DQ like Country House.

I'll Have Another 2 for 2
California Chrome 3 for 3
American Pharoah 2 for 2
Nyquist 2 for 2
Always Dreaming 3 for 3
Justify 3 for 3
Country House via DQ 1 for 4, Maximum Security finished 1st 3 for 3
Authentic 3 for 4 (obviously weird circumstances last year with race in September)

So since the points system came into play, the first finisher in the Derby is 21 for 22 in 3yo races beforehand.

[sbcaris]

My error. I used lifetime win percentages for that research and for some reason thought I was using only 3 year old racing. The impact value will probably be higher if i used only 3 year old races from 2013 to 2020.

[The Biscuit]

Great work ... as always ...2021 Derby ....I take it most 3 year-olds have a win pct over 60% ? Thanks for your feedback ....bol bro in Derby

[sbcaris]

Using CJs stats over the 8 year period where the point system was in place CJ found that 7 of the 8 winners were undefeated as 3 year olds. The undefeated horses as a group comprised 14.5% of the starters and 87% of the winners. The impact value is a fantastic 6.00.

The undefeated horses as 3 yo averaged around 3 starters per year. We certainly could start our method of play by looking closely at the undefeated 3 yo.

[f2tornado]

And as CJ noted, one could argue an asterisk for the lone loss last year, granted it was in a big prep.

Essential Quality 2-2
Helium 1-1
Rock Your World 3-3
Concert Tour 3-3 (Ark remaining)

Rock and CT have the no race at 2 angle going against them if that’s still relevant after Justify. I do like the breeding on both. I can’t see Helium winning it. EQ is the logical chalk with the potent 1-x family.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Orb was 3 for 3 as a 3yo before the Derby. He wasn't very good after, but what happens afterwards isn't relevant, is it? Also, Super Saver was 11 years ago.

I think this is largely a points system thing. It began in 2013, and since winning preps has become almost essential unless you win via DQ like Country House.

I'll Have Another 2 for 2
California Chrome 3 for 3
American Pharoah 2 for 2
Nyquist 2 for 2
Always Dreaming 3 for 3
Justify 3 for 3
Country House via DQ 1 for 4, Maximum Security finished 1st 3 for 3
Authentic 3 for 4 (obviously weird circumstances last year with race in September)

So since the points system came into play, the first finisher in the Derby is 21 for 22 in 3yo races beforehand.

Wow, I didn't realize any of that. I kind of knew the winners were coming out of the major preps and they were usually successful in them. I didn't realize how successful all the winners actually were.

[Raider]

so bet with the trend or against it?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Raider

so bet with the trend or against it?

Handicap the race.

[stuball]

I don't believe it would be a life changing payoff under the 60% system I'm 78 so at this point I look for big thrills (payoffs)

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

And as CJ noted, one could argue an asterisk for the lone loss last year, granted it was in a big prep.

Essential Quality 2-2
Helium 1-1
Rock Your World 3-3
Concert Tour 3-3 (Ark remaining)

Rock and CT have the no race at 2 angle going against them if that’s still relevant after Justify. I do like the breeding on both. I can’t see Helium winning it. EQ is the logical chalk with the potent 1-x family.

The point system has made the bomb outcomes few and far between. First off, the pace is usually predictable and somewhat more moderate. That can’t be said for every running but for a majority it just is. Secondly, the picture of clear contenders is really right there with how these big preps are given large point amounts. If you are lightly racing your horse , you gotta show up . First or second or you ain’t getting in. So, the way these horse are training the running as a 2 yo doesn’t really matter as much. Justify did it and Big Brown ran once in September then shelved his 2 yo season. These records prove that these horses are being trained for “the moment “ and the window is shorter.

That being said . If your looking for a halfway decent price with horses I think can win. It’s Rock Your World and Concert Tour. If Concert Tour finishes second today that will only help the price. The other one is Known Agenda, 2 for 3 this year, 2 for 2 going 1 1/8. Obviously, there’s the favorite to deal with and he fits the profile too. They are literally racing these horses the least times for the most points and if the race doesn’t have a major incident...... the derby has become way more predictable.

[jay68802]

So, this year, what contenders are undefeated?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by burnsy

The point system has made the bomb outcomes few and far between. First off, the pace is usually predictable and somewhat more moderate. That can’t be said for every running but for a majority it just is. Secondly, the picture of clear contenders is really right there with how these big preps are given large point amounts. If you are lightly racing your horse , you gotta show up . First or second or you ain’t getting in. So, the way these horse are training the running as a 2 yo doesn’t really matter as much. Justify did it and Big Brown ran once in September then shelved his 2 yo season. These records prove that these horses are being trained for “the moment “ and the window is shorter.

That being said . If your looking for a halfway decent price with horses I think can win. It’s Rock Your World and Concert Tour. If Concert Tour finishes second today that will only help the price. The other one is Known Agenda, 2 for 3 this year, 2 for 2 going 1 1/8. Obviously, there’s the favorite to deal with and he fits the profile too. They are literally racing these horses the least times for the most points and if the race doesn’t have a major incident...... the derby has become way more predictable.

I think another thing that has made "bomb" outcomes few and far between, and has made the Derby more predictable, is the Baffert Factor. Assuming that Baffert cheats with doping (which I do), that changes everything. We're talking about a trainer who has rich owners that buy the best-bred horses and then gives them some sort of drug or drug cocktail that allows them to run fast early without getting tired in the final quarter the way almost every other thoroughbred does. That's a game changer.

[The Biscuit]

Agree 100%



Baffert is finally neutralized

[pandy]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

Agree 100%



Baffert is finally neutralized

What makes you think he's neutralized? I know his horses, Concert Tour and Bezos didn't run well at Oaklawn and Keeneland Saturday but Concert Tour already has enough points and he also has Medina, who has enough points. Life Is Good got hurt, otherwise, he'd have three eligible for the Derby.

It's possible that they're keeping a closer eye on him. When Stuart Janney said this (below), he had to be thinking of Baffert. I've contacted Keeneland, the Jockey Club and other tracks and tried to persuade them to make Baffert race his horses out of detention barns, which would be the least that they could do, since the corrupt CHRB has let him get away with cheating for so long. But it could be that they have surveillance in place and maybe uncover agents. Janney said that 5 Stones Intelligence is still involved and that more indictments may follow.


Stuart Janney - "Cheaters would come and go in the past, but what we've seen in the past 10 years is cheating becoming more prevalent at the highest levels, which has a lot of implications with the Stud Book and the integrity of the breed," Janney said.