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04-11-2021, 01:22 AM
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#6961
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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I know a few of you are entered in the annual Santa Anita "Showvivor" contest. They have categories for winning, total money won, and a show contest. I've looked at (and entered) the contests previously, and am always amazed at how good contestants are. Here's the list of the players that have hit all their show bets--and this is just the contestants that are on at least 25 show picks in a row. There are many more below that consecutive number:
Absolutely amazing...these for the most part aren't even pro players. I don't know if they could all do as well if their own money was riding on these...still impressive.
-NCG
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04-11-2021, 01:14 PM
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#6962
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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you gotta be good to hit 38/38 show bets, I don't care who ya are.
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04-11-2021, 03:45 PM
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#6963
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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SA PONYPICKER
Yes...I know most of these people probably aren't handicapping without some sort of show method.
Still thirty-eight times in a row is REALLY testing the limits of show betting-accuracy. Or do any damn thing 38 times in a row, but especially any form of gambling...if you get to ten consecutive-you've done something.
I haven't posted PONYPICKS in quite a while, here are the so-called "Easy Winners". Are they easy? Play them and find out
I showed a spot play with this program in the past--found a tri in the last race that--since I've already posted the software, might as well find a play:
8th race
good luck
-NCG
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 04-11-2021 at 03:48 PM.
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04-11-2021, 04:34 PM
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#6964
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
you gotta be good to hit 38/38 show bets, I don't care who ya are.
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Size of field probably has lot to do with with the success rate as well. If the fields are averaging 6 horses or less it makes it a lot easier to have a horse finish in the show position.
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04-11-2021, 06:54 PM
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#6965
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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yes but at $2.10 to show you gotta hit 97%
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04-11-2021, 07:28 PM
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#6966
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Longacres transplant
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Vashon island
Posts: 237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
I know a few of you are entered in the annual Santa Anita "Showvivor" contest. They have categories for winning, total money won, and a show contest. I've looked at (and entered) the contests previously, and am always amazed at how good contestants are. Here's the list of the players that have hit all their show bets--and this is just the contestants that are on at least 25 show picks in a row. There are many more below that consecutive number:
Absolutely amazing...these for the most part aren't even pro players. I don't know if they could all do as well if their own money was riding on these...still impressive.
-NCG
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What's the basic setup/rules for this contest? How many picks a day? Any track or only Santa Anita?
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04-11-2021, 07:29 PM
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#6967
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Trainer moves top power at OP
Updating my results, just betting the TM top power horse at Oaklawn Park for the last 3 weeks, no handicapping, betting every race since 3/25
No of bets= 123 No of Races=123
winners = 42 (34%)
total win payout = $255.00
total bet = $246.00
profit = $9.00
The highest price horse of the winners paid $13 so no longshot flier to skew the results.
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04-11-2021, 07:29 PM
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#6968
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kbatch57
Size of field probably has lot to do with with the success rate as well. If the fields are averaging 6 horses or less it makes it a lot easier to have a horse finish in the show position.
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The contest director determines which races are eligible, the players don't decide.
It's only natural they would keep the largest contest fields open for tourney play.
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04-11-2021, 07:54 PM
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#6969
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Updating my results, just betting the TM top power horse at Oaklawn Park for the last 3 weeks, no handicapping, betting every race since 3/25
No of bets= 123 No of Races=123
winners = 42 (34%)
total win payout = $255.00
total bet = $246.00
profit = $9.00
The highest price horse of the winners paid $13 so no longshot flier to skew the results.
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Thank you for updating your results, Mike. We all knew the results would even out and fall back to reality. There aren't many 2 or 3-digit single ratings in existence--that can even show a profit, playing each race daily at the same track, for one month.
Honestly...Bris Prime Power is a more accurate rating than Platinum Power. We aren't arguing that. It will hit more winners, that's been shown.
The problem is--everyone HAS access to Bris Prime. Every blue-haired woman in the grandstand has it.
Now, imagine if only a few hundred people in this country had the Bris Power Numbers. That number would be much more valuable, due to it's rarity.
My Platinum Power Rating-2 or 3 digits (same as Bris')...has been tested and run through data banks, and shown to be slightly more profitable than the Bris Power. How can that be?
Easy....a few hundred people have, or can access Platinum Power. Maybe as many as one million horseplayers can get Bris Power numbers.
Enjoy your week,
-NCG
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04-11-2021, 10:39 PM
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#6970
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMQ
What's the basic setup/rules for this contest? How many picks a day? Any track or only Santa Anita?
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It's just for Santa Anita, TMQ. There are 4 or 5 races presented per race day--you select one only, from the eligible picks.
Not much use in starting now, as SA will be running a very limited schedule for the near future...like, maybe 2 days a week.
But there is always the Del Mar 'capping contest at their site, after SA finishes up.
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04-13-2021, 02:06 PM
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#6971
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Looks like DRF Stable Mail is working once again:
Horse name Lady Kim
Notes Not much effort at 9-1-claimed by Radesovich - should be worth a bet next out with a price.
Activity date 04-13-2021
Track Mahoning Valley
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 5
Post position 9
ML 6-1
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 04-13-2021 at 02:08 PM.
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04-14-2021, 02:01 AM
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#6972
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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TAMPA 4-14
So much for Lady Kim.....
Think I'll concentrate my efforts on Tampa today. After a couple years of burning through bankrolls--Tampa started to finally come around for me. Couple monster longshots and generally solid play (for me) made for a solid season.
These are some of stats and sorted lists I begin with:
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If you check columns like "Last 3 Speeds", "Speed Blast", "ITM%", etc...you'll get a feel for who the main players are in the races today. I guarantee you'll get a better perception of the contenders than with past performances, alone.
Good luck today,
-NCG
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04-14-2021, 09:08 PM
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#6973
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Mike (green80) has been doing research at OPX since the start of the season. He's mainly keeping an eye on Bris Prime Power vs Platinum Power.
Nothing earth-shattering was expected, nor found. Bris won more races--we already figured that...as well as we figured Platinum would have a higher avg mutual-it did. For the month we were slightly higher dollar-wise, than Bris Power.
Here's part of his report that was a little unusual:
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"What I found unusual at OP is that if you just bet the power#'s that were under 4/1 your roi would improve by a pretty good margin. This is the opposite of what I found at other tracks. A year ago I went through the entire meet at Louisiana Downs showing a pretty good profit just betting the top power when it was over 6/1."
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04-15-2021, 05:53 PM
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#6974
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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TRAINER MOVES NAILS THE 9TH TRI @ GPX
Easiest tri I've ever won:
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04-17-2021, 12:46 PM
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#6975
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 360
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Hey Greg,
Sent you an email- just figured I'd let you know, its a busy Saturday LOL
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