HONG KONG – SHA TIN SUN 4/11

[Hypnotist1]

KABOOM!!!!!!!

[Hypnotist1]

MTP 1 ST 11 4/11/2021 MTP Cutoff -->
0.72 0.81 Top 2/3 Prob Sum
Late Quality Watch List
1 2 3 Win Diff Late Vector (sum % changes +3 to -1)
+3 to -1 1 MTP 1 MTP 13 8 13 7 6 6
6 6 6 W/S Diffs >= 1.5, and adjacent hit counts (All MTP)
8 8 8 # 6 7 8 13 3
13 7 13 Cnt 15 8 5 5 3
7 1 1 Adj 11 3 1 1 0
3 2 2 MTP 19 6 3 11 8 QBD BD%

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

13 live long shot Race 11 1 mtp

Obviously!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE--- R#11-1400M C2 (7F)T……6-8-10 W/ 1-3-7

13-8-6-3– Dutch LOSS 38% Profit Margin - PASSED / Lots of solid late action on the Winner #13 – Too late to post a swap but lots of time to change a bet!! /

[Hypnotist1]

Post your 1 mtp numbers like I did

[Hypnotist1]

20 to 0
1 3.5
2 1.7
3 2.8
4
5 0.9
6 5.4
7 2.8
8 4.7
9
10 3.8
11 2.0
12 1.7
13 6.7
14
15
16
17
18
19
20


Top 3 highest numbers are 13 @ 6.7 6 @ 5.4 8 @ 4.7

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

If your hit rate is 66% or 2 of 3 races and your win percent is 50 you break even

Example Bet 100.00 on 3 horse dutch with 50% return = +50 NET

so if we hit 2 we get net +100

when we lose we lose net -100

So n this example for 3 wager we get net 0

Here is the flaw if our top pick is the long odds horse we devalue our top pick and the lowest odds horse gets the most money bet in the dutch. Does this make sense NO !! IT only make sense if your top 3 picks win at the same rate of 22 % each

yes now that I see that profit margin is simply the profit % on dollar bet in each race that makes sense. So in the 4 races Nitro had plays, assuming you bet $100 in each race, you made $86, on one race lost $100 on another, lost $100 in another and won $51 on the last one. Lost $63 on $400 bet because he only hit 2 of 4(assuming I didn't miss any plays). So I am assuming since Nitro claims to make money at this, his dutches are hitting fairly close to 65% since he takes as low as a 50% profit margin. That is a pretty tall order but anyone can track his success on the days he posts pretty easily.

Regarding the last paragraph, I agree. A pure dutch has never been in my playbook. Do we even know if 3 horse are needed, maybe 2 are better, maybe just the top choice............It takes research, but the answers are there if you do the work.

[Poindexter]

One last question Nitro and thanks for answering the last. I believe you stated that you look at like 4 odd flashes 15 m 10m 4 m & post or something similar. Do you weight the later odds flash higher than the early odds flash? For instance you can give a 1x weighting at 15, 1.5 x at 10m, 2 x weighting at 4 m and maybe a 2.5x weighting at post. I think early money has some place the in the tote betting equation, but I don't think it is nearly as significant as late money.

[Nitro]

O.A. Results from 11 races posted:

KEY CHOICE WINNERS – 5
WINNERS FROM BOTTOM 3 - 4
DUTCH PLAYS W/WINS OVER 50% PROFIT MARGIN- 2 for 4
QUINELLAS – 7 W/ KEY CHOICE (AVG RETURN - $36.30)
TRIPLES – 4
(QUARTETS) SUPERS – 3

Although there were many O.A. Winners posted nearly half of them were not part of the top Key selections.
That caused for only a fair showing on the Dutch Win betting.
The big savers were the Quinellas and Triples.

• RACE #2 – Dutch Win
•

 	LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
 	2.9	5.1	7.6	BET	PRF	 
 	$8	$12	$17	 	 	 
 	$17	$11	$8	$36	$31	86%
 	$67	$67	$67	 	 	 
•	

• RACE #3 – Dutch Loss
•

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.9	3.9	5.4	BET	PRF	 
$8	$10	$13	 	 	 
$13	$10	$8	$31	$19	62%
$50	$50	$50	 	 	 

• RACE #6– Dutch Loss
•

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
2.6	5.1	5.4	BET	PRF	 
$7	$12	$13	 	 	 
$13	$8	$7	$28	$19	67%
$46	$46	$46	 	 	 

• RACE #9 – Dutch Win
•

LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
1.9	4.3	10.0	BET	PRF	 
$6	$11	$22	 	 	 
$22	$12	$6	$40	$24	60%
$64	$64	$64	 	 	 

Actual O.A. Dutch Betting Results
Race 2 – Profit - $310
Race 3 – Loss - $310
Race 6 – Loss - $280
Race 9 - Profit - $240
Total –--- Loss $40

The Dutch Calculator dictates the amount to be bet on each entry and the total amount bet for each race to be played.
The anticipation of late money changes prior to post is dictated by money flow throughout the betting cycle. 15m/10m/7m/4m to post.
Final calculations and returns are based on the actual final odds.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

One last question Nitro and thanks for answering the last. I believe you stated that you look at like 4 odd flashes 15 m 10m 4 m & post or something similar. Do you weight the later odds flash higher than the early odds flash? For instance you can give a 1x weighting at 15, 1.5 x at 10m, 2 x weighting at 4 m and maybe a 2.5x weighting at post. I think early money has some place the in the tote betting equation, but I don't think it is nearly as significant as late money.

Don’t kid yourself!! Early money is VERY significant when considering the O.A betting in HK.
Next time just take a quick peek at the open HK$ total amounts in the Win/Place and Quinella pools (then divide those numbers by "5" to get the US$ equivalent).

The early action certainly provides the initial impact for making comparisons between the entries. However, anyone just viewing the odds (the Win pool) would be missing out on the REAL significance of the Early money without viewing all the available betting pools. (I would have to say that manually trying to accurately monitor and compare all these pools for each entry during a typical betting is physically impossible!!)

Later on of course when significant Late money comes in on specific entries it can also be measured, quantified, and compared when you’re able to comprehend the differences from the earlier data received. It doesn’t mean that in all cases just because there’s obvious late money that there’s improvement expected. Everything about an overall tote analysis becomes an analytical exercise based on the relativity of the information provided from one betting interval to another.