Horses previous odds

[upthecreek]

How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

None. But don’t go by me because I don’t handicap.
There might be some validity to comparing previous odds to today’s odds, if and only if the race conditions (Class, Distance, Surface, etc.) were the same. But even then, without knowing the physical and mental condition of the horse itself any type of comparison would seem inconsequential.

With small fields dominating the racing scene at many tracks these days there will be races where biggest price on the board is 10/1. (So that 90% figure might be right if there’s nothing with bigger odds in the race to begin with).

It’s a well-known fact that at most tracks in the States where they have reasonably sized betting pools, the following winning averages hold true:
1) The Top betting choice Wins 32 to 34% of the time.
2) Either of the Top 2 betting choices Wins 56 to 58% of the time
3) Any one of the Top 3 betting choices Wins 65 to 67% of the time
4) Any one of the Top 4 betting choices Wins 72 to 75% of the time
It follows that long shots win about 25% of the time. I assume that means the 5th choice or lower.

[lamboguy]

the truth of the matter is that it does influence me. if the horse won the prior race and was 10-1, today he is 7-5 i usually don't play the horse.

the way i look at it is that i missed the wedding and don't want to be around for the funeral.

not great reasoning, but its just one of those quirks you have when you are a horse player

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the truth of the matter is that it does influence me. if the horse won the prior race and was 10-1, today he is 7-5 i usually don't play the horse.

the way i look at it is that i missed the wedding and don't want to be around for the funeral.

not great reasoning, but its just one of those quirks you have when you are a horse player

Regarding does it have anything to do with in horse racing that horses are usually raised in "class" level in follow up races after a win.

I think this a common quirk of horse players given the number of repeat winners unless you can see that the horse is rounding into form.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

Referring to an American Turf Monthly article from April 1985 80-85% of winners went off at less then 10/1 odds in his research compiling over 500 races

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

Hey Upthecreek

In this example
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=133435

D G Donk seemed to interchange Lady Kresa and King Kresa with J L Ortiz aboard and he was having some limited success

I don't handicap so I wouldn't let the ML odds bother me one bit I would try to keep playing the tandem until it wasn't profitable anymore

However, I am interested to know what type of performance measure they used for the odds

Do you know what they did to come up with the performance number for the odds?

Also did they use ML odds or actual odds?

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Referring to an American Turf Monthly article from April 1985 80-85% of winners went off at less then 10/1 odds in his research compiling over 500 races

My buddy ran a years worth of races thru his DB and found 95.71% of the races were won by horses 10-1 or less

[PICSIX]

1.) I like to hawk a well bet first time starter the next 1 or 2 races if it had a bad performance in that first race.

2.) When a horse is making a significant class drop I look to see that it didn't take much action in it's prior race. This tells me the class relief is needed and generally the horse is sound.

[whisperlunch]

Never let the odds get you on a horse , Never let the odds get you off a horse However you can let the odds determine the size of your bet on the horse...

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

Upthecreek, I use high ML plays when I'm focusing on my brand of tote analysis or Speed Improv. Here's 10 recent winners I've bet and their ML's; Not that I focus on high ML's, but they no longer scare me away. Sometimes you look at PP's and say, this horse should be 6-1 to 8-1 in my mind. With the exception of two of these, all were strictly tote analysis plays.

9/27-4PARX-W 18.40 12-1ML: 8-1 EM$(first flash at OTB)
10/2-1Parx- W 20.00 10-1ML: ?? 2nd lowest l.r. speed rating
" -1LRL - PL 14.60 20-1ML: 7-1 EM$
10/2-3LRL - W 21.60 21.60ML: 6-1EM$
10/3-10PARX-W 44.00 20-1ML also +16 Sp Improv-legit ML, was 6th by 10 l's and 44.75-1 odds. prev. race 6th by 10 and 26.25-1.
10/3-2DEL - W 24.60 10-1ML
10/7 1BEL - W 19.00 15-1ML 7-1 EM$
" 2LRL - W 30.20 12-1ML +12 SP IMP
10/8-1PARX- W 33.20 12-1ML-
" -3PARX- W 18.20 12-1ML
For the record, I do play many more in the 5-2 to 8-1 ML's than high ML's.

[Robert Fischer]

I like to see odds fluctuations in the Past Performances, and 'why' they fluctuated.

Throw a multiplier against this factor in Claiming races.

Often a show of money and/or a claim, correlate to the race prior to the money. That prior-to-the-money race was considered to be an improved one. That is often a good race to go back to and form a personal opinion about. Do I think it was really a step up?? Did the horse actually do some (improved) running?

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Never let the odds get you on a horse , Never let the odds get you off a horse However you can let the odds determine the size of your bet on the horse...

This statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

The ONLY thing that matters on a horse is the price.

Take any race any day. Pick any horse that has a reasonable chance at finishing 1st.

If he's 6/5 I'll give you a 15 minute speech as to why he's the worst bet in the history of horse racing.

If he's 6-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's probably about proper at that price.

If he's 20-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's the single greatest bet in the history of pari-mutual wagering.

Everything is exactly the same in all three scenarios.

Same: Track, PP's, jockey, trainer, race shape, distance, post and on and on.

What's changed? One thing and one thing ONLY. His price. Period.

This game has NOTHING to do with picking winners or cashing bets. This game is about making money.

And the only way to do that is to consistently over and over and over again make the correct bet.

If you're doing that individual race results actually become irrelevant. And I'm not saying meaningless. I'm saying bad rides, good rides, good luck or bad luck, DQ's or As is will become a wash over the course of time.

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

[whisperlunch]

Not so fast Mr. Stauffer. One I've been a member for prolly longer than you. Two I really respect your opinion three let me clarify. All winners have value. If the horse is 4/5 and you can't beat him then play Him in exactas or pic 3orpic 4. Winners pay the losers in this sport so if you let odds determine which horse to bet or not bet because of odds then you are letting the public Determine your Selection. I love it when I hear on tv " I'm looking for a value play " that's so dumb. Pic the horse you capped and bet it. If odds are screwy. Then adjust your Bet amount or bet it horizontally. All winners have value. And yes you're correct about passing on a race if you are unsure. Peace out

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Not so fast Mr. Stauffer. One I've been a member for prolly longer than you. Two I really respect your opinion three let me clarify. All winners have value. If the horse is 4/5 and you can't beat him then play Him in exactas or pic 3orpic 4. Winners pay the losers in this sport so if you let odds determine which horse to bet or not bet because of odds then you are letting the public Determine your Selection. I love it when I hear on tv " I'm looking for a value play " that's so dumb. Pic the horse you capped and bet it. If odds are screwy. Then adjust your Bet amount or bet it horizontally. All winners have value. And yes you're correct about passing on a race if you are unsure. Peace out

Whisper

I saw you've been a member since 2008. I was only referring to the fact you're a very infrequent poster.

I meant no disrespect.

I sometimes cringe too when a person says they're "looking for a value play". It's because they think that simply means higher odds.

As for the rest of what you said in your 2nd post. I 100% disagree with all of it. You can't make Chicken Soup out of Chicken Shit and that's exactly what your post is suggesting.

But that's why we keep track. If what you are doing is showing a profit then by all means you should tell me to shut up and carry on.

If it's not. If you're losing. You might want to re-think some of your methods and perhaps consider alternatives.

Best of luck.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by whisperlunch

Not so fast Mr. Stauffer. One I've been a member for prolly longer than you. Two I really respect your opinion three let me clarify. All winners have value. If the horse is 4/5 and you can't beat him then play Him in exactas or pic 3orpic 4. Winners pay the losers in this sport so if you let odds determine which horse to bet or not bet because of odds then you are letting the public Determine your Selection. I love it when I hear on tv " I'm looking for a value play " that's so dumb. Pic the horse you capped and bet it. If odds are screwy. Then adjust your Bet amount or bet it horizontally. All winners have value. And yes you're correct about passing on a race if you are unsure. Peace out

Yes...all WINNERS have value. But, when we select them, they aren't yet "winners"...they only have the winning "potential". And I submit that all the win-contenders DON'T have value.