Cratos's thread about wind force

[Cratos]

If you are using Equibase/DRF data you cannot determine the horse’s actual speed because those data providers includes only normalized distance in their statistical data and you would want actual distance run by the horse.

Thus, the number calculated above is not the speed of the horse, it's the average speed for the entire race. What should be calculated is the horse’s instantaneous speed, that is, the speed determined over a very small interval of time; an instant.

The best data provider for getting that information is Trakus and you will have better variants if you incorporate the environmental speed retardants of aerodynamic drag, surface wind force, surface resistance, and track geometry for side force in the turns.

[osophy_junkie]

Originally Posted by Cratos

If you are using Equibase/DRF data you cannot determine the horse’s actual speed because those data providers includes only normalized distance in their statistical data and you would want actual distance run by the horse.

Thus, the number calculated above is not the speed of the horse, it's the average speed for the entire race. What should be calculated is the horse’s instantaneous speed, that is, the speed determined over a very small interval of time; an instant.

The best data provider for getting that information is Trakus and you will have better variants if you incorporate the environmental speed retardants of aerodynamic drag, surface wind speed, surface resistance, and track geometry for side force in the turns.

Any hints how you go about doing that, if you do? I've read through every message with Variant in the title and have seen you talk about the theory in the past, but don't remember seeing much on the practical side.
I have hourly wind direction and wind speed for all the tracks I follow, but haven't been able to find any correlation to final time or speed figure.
And I currently don't keep any stats about the track geometry, but will look into it.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by osophy_junkie

Any hints how you go about doing that, if you do? I've read through every message with Variant in the title and have seen you talk about the theory in the past, but don't remember seeing much on the practical side.
I have hourly wind direction and wind speed for all the tracks I follow, but haven't been able to find any correlation to final time or speed figure.
And I currently don't keep any stats about the track geometry, but will look into it.

In all due respect I have published on this site posts that gave detailed explanation of surface resistance converted into an impact against final time, an example of side force impact in the turns, and a PDF giving a "how to" in calculating aerodynamic drag.

I don't remember submitting a "how to" example of wind force calculation, but it can be easily understood if you understand aerodynamic drag and you will have the reference plane for the area.

Also I have published racetrack layouts on the Forum with geographic orientation particularly for posters like yourself to do wind force ( and it is "force" not "speed") impact on the horse's time.

[Tom]

Which means you cannot do tracks that do not have Trakus and you have to hand enter all your data. So you better hope you don't get shippers.

And Trakus only gives you data at the normal points of call, not very short distances. See thread about International Racing for a screen shot of what you get from Trakus.

[Cratos]

Two issues should be made clear:

(1) Use a time impact/foot of distance traveled metric.

(2) Pace and speed are inherently bonded together; basic physics. Pace is the independent variable and speed is the dependent variable. As long as there is motion the two will be together and Newtonian physics substantiates that relationship.

[Cratos]

To imply that Trakus info is tedious to enter is false. The Trakus T-Charts can be copied and pasted into Excel and many other software programs easily and quickly.

Yes, Trakus do follow the traditional POC format for displaying race times, but given that Trakus gives both time and. distance between each POC other speed points can easily be calculated.

Trakus does not universally capture data from all of NA racetracks, but given that you are working with result charts that is not a major problem.

Lastly, with Equibase/DRF you are getting normalized race distance and virtual race time; in effect there isn't real HORSE performance time; only estimated time for the horse.

[Tom]

Trakus does not universally capture data from all of NA racetracks, but given that you are working with result charts that is not a major problem.

How is it not a problem when the majority of tracks have nothing at all from Trakus?

[osophy_junkie]

Originally Posted by Cratos

To imply that Trakus info is tedious to enter is false. The Trakus T-Charts can be copied and pasted into Excel and many other software programs easily and quickly.

Yes, Trakus do follow the traditional POC format for displaying race times, but given that Trakus gives both time and. distance between each POC other speed points can easily be calculated.

Trakus does not universally capture data from all of NA racetracks, but given that you are working with result charts that is not a major problem.

Lastly, with Equibase/DRF you are getting normalized race distance and virtual race time; in effect there isn't real HORSE performance time; only estimated time for the horse.

Not all tracks offer historical data for trakus, which is really a bummer. Although I do, I don't _want_ to have to run my computer 24/7 and schedule daily data scrapping.

[traynor]

The speculative "adjustments" for the effect of wind speed and wind direction during a given race presuppose that accurate readings of such are available for the precise times at which each specific race was run. Unless such data accuracy is available, and suitably applied, the notion of adjustments for wind speed and direction are about as useful as astrology or numerology. Meaning--specifically--they "seem to work" just often enough to keep the faithful as true believers.

I think many who read the emphasis on wind speed and wind direction as factors may be trying to use data that lacks the degree of sophistication necessary for accurate adjustment. Unless specific wind speed and wind direction are known for the duration of the race in question, at track level, on the track, incorporating such data into the production of speed/pace figures may be less than useful. And that is on a really good day.

[cj]

Originally Posted by traynor

The speculative "adjustments" for the effect of wind speed and wind direction during a given race presuppose that accurate readings of such are available for the precise times at which each specific race was run. Unless such data accuracy is available, and suitably applied, the notion of adjustments for wind speed and direction are about as useful as astrology or numerology. Meaning--specifically--they "seem to work" just often enough to keep the faithful as true believers.

I think many who read the emphasis on wind speed and wind direction as factors may be trying to use data that lacks the degree of sophistication necessary for accurate adjustment. Unless specific wind speed and wind direction are known for the duration of the race in question, at track level, on the track, incorporating such data into the production of speed/pace figures may be less than useful. And that is on a really good day.

I agree, it is a lot easier to measure the cumulative effect of a variety of factors than it is to measure each individual factor and incorporate them piece by piece.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by traynor

The speculative "adjustments" for the effect of wind speed and wind direction during a given race presuppose that accurate readings of such are available for the precise times at which each specific race was run. Unless such data accuracy is available, and suitably applied, the notion of adjustments for wind speed and direction are about as useful as astrology or numerology. Meaning--specifically--they "seem to work" just often enough to keep the faithful as true believers.

I think many who read the emphasis on wind speed and wind direction as factors may be trying to use data that lacks the degree of sophistication necessary for accurate adjustment. Unless specific wind speed and wind direction are known for the duration of the race in question, at track level, on the track, incorporating such data into the production of speed/pace figures may be less than useful. And that is on a really good day.

It is not WIND SPEED; it is WIND FORCE (LOAD) and it can be measured as accurately as any other variable used in horserace handicapping.

The problem here is an apparent lack of understanding of the concept and therefore the "bashing" of it becomes the norm.

There are posters who probably use some form of wind calculations and would find this discussion useful and beneficial in their analytics

[cj]

Pretty sure you need to know wind speed to get wind force. Anybody tell me what the exact wind speed was at track level on the backstretch, both turns, and frontstretch, including gusts, during the running of the first at Sam Houston yesterday?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

Pretty sure you need to know wind speed to get wind force. Anybody tell me what the exact wind speed was at track level on the backstretch, both turns, and frontstretch, including gusts, during the running of the first at Sam Houston yesterday?

Tell me the exact distance each horse ran at Sam Houston yesterday?

Yes, wind speed is needed to calculate the wind force, but that is not the problem here; it is lack of understanding of the calculation.

Virtually all calculations made in horseracing are subjective and that what makes some handicappers/bettors better than others; they have better skill sets or a better understanding of the variables and how they are applied to the handicapping process.

This is nothing new because there are astute and well learned applicationists in all fields.

[DeltaLover]

Although it is true that wind can definitely affect the timing of a race, I still do not believe that incorporating it to a speed figure calculator represents an (easy) achievable task.

Gathering relating data seems like a daunting process that is impossible to achieve without expensive devices and a very laborious effort.

More than this, I doubt that even if going through the hassle of gathering related wind data and incorporating to our calculations, will have any significant impact in the bottom line of any betting approach.

Track Variant definition does not represent a scientific process by any means and it more a mix of empirical estimates and (mostly) pseudo scientific methodologies (class pars been one of them).

I am not saying that calculating track variant and speed figures is useless or necessarily a bogus procedure, but that after a certain level, it does not make much of a difference to struggle for more precise estimates. Having a "relatively" good understanding of the fastness of the track (measured in approximately 0.5 sec increments) is enough for all our betting needs...

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Osophy_Junkie,

I would study fractional times using feet/sec ratios and compare the results to running style. Traynor's point to forget wind is good advice.

In all due respect, horses do not run in a vacuum. When you can apply a speed retardant to the horse's motion you are ahead of the game with your calculation.

We don't all think alike and horserace handicapping is not an exact science.

Therefore I might give my opinion, but the use and understanding of the concept in question is up to the poster(s).