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Old 04-07-2013, 01:45 AM   #46
SharpCat
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Will be interesting to see who J. Velazquez decides to ride in the Derby. Who would you ride?
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:47 AM   #47
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He will ride the Pletcher horse, that's a given.
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:55 AM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PICSIX
What about the pace scenario being altered by the handler of the 10 horse???
I actually feel bad for the owners , WestPoint recently bought shares of Ground Transport . He actually didn't disgrace himself last out and might be something good to watch for later . Now this . Not that the 10 horse was going to win , but to lose all chance at the start like that has to hurt .
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:10 AM   #49
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Good thing Normandy got 2nd or he not have made the Derby - that was close
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:44 AM   #50
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Good thing Normandy got 2nd or he not have made the Derby - that was close
Correction - he wasn't going to make the Derby if he didn't get by Vyjack.
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Old 04-07-2013, 09:45 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Tom
The other V is wasting his time going to Kentucky.
He has zero shot. He was exposed today.
Normandy Invasion looked very good - he will pass the Good V at 10 furlongs.
That 49 pace was an embarrassment. You will see a lot of tails going 49 at CD.
And thats the problem with the race. The pace scenario will never be like this derby day. The Wood will most likely be a bust as a prep, just like last year. I'll admit the track was a little slow but derby week some horses will be working faster than this pace went and with the California horses, Arkansas Derby horses and some of the others from Florida and Fair Grounds...you will see these kinds of pace fractions in your dreams (in the derby). I really did not think much of Normandy Invasion and he probably ran the best race yesterday. That field was sort of slow and very unimpressive for a grade 1 million dollar race. Of course they came home faster than the Santa Anita race they walked for 3/4 of a mile! The derby is usually fast EARLY and SLOW late....i don't write the rules, most years thats just the way they run this race. I think all those horses were exposed in a way yesterday and now, Verranzano is "dressed up" and ready to go as another Pletcher chalky derby contender. Not saying he can't win but he has to move way better derby day off of 4 races that "make" him look "invincible". They are going 10 furlongs and you will never, ever see a 25 quarter or a 50 half until the final stages of this race. If you want to be on something that might make you some coin on derby day, this was just the sort of race you wanted yesterday. The big horse wins in a weak event like that and now the world loves him............I noticed people are dissing the california horses again.......those last two preps were run way more "derby like" than this race yesterday was. I'm thinking the winner comes from "other than NY" and i'm a NYRA bettor. I kind of think alot of Orb but he prepped in FLA.

Last edited by burnsy; 04-07-2013 at 09:52 AM.
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Old 04-07-2013, 09:55 AM   #52
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The SA Derby last year was an absolute crawl for the first 6f and then they really rocketed home - and that race gave us the Ky Derby winner in I'll Have Another. The Wood appeared to have been run the same way.
I haven't seen any figures or done my own for Aqu yesterday, but i wouldn't toss this race completely when looking for my Derby winner, not yet at least.
They ran their final 3/8s in 36.53 yesterday, and Normandy was gaining ground, hmmmm...
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Old 04-07-2013, 09:58 AM   #53
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I think we'd all agree that Verrazano is going to be an underlay next month.
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Old 04-07-2013, 10:02 AM   #54
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While the pace was soft, people should not get carried away about the actual raw times. The wind was stiffly in the face of the horses leaving the gate and coming to the wire, 20mph sustained gusting to 30. This undoubtedly slowed down the the initial fractions and last 8th and explains why each 1/4 split in this race was faster than the last (until the last 8th), unlike just about every other "derby" race so far.

I see people all over Twitter trying to downplay the performance compared to the SA derby simply based on raw time. That SA surface was lightning quick all day with no wind issues. Anyone who thinks Goldencents would have also run 1.48 at Aqu yesterday is ridiculously delusional.

Verrazano has already shown he can handle pace pressure, one of his races at GP he was fully pressured thru splits of 45 and 109, so there is zero question about his ability to handle a hot pace.
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Old 04-07-2013, 10:09 AM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
The SA Derby last year was an absolute crawl for the first 6f and then they really rocketed home - and that race gave us the Ky Derby winner in I'll Have Another. The Wood appeared to have been run the same way.
I haven't seen any figures or done my own for Aqu yesterday, but i wouldn't toss this race completely when looking for my Derby winner, not yet at least.
They ran their final 3/8s in 36.53 yesterday, and Normandy was gaining ground, hmmmm...
I'll agree with most of that. Out of the top 3 in that race Normandy Invasion would be the only one i would even consider on top in a pick. I said he probably ran best. I think he could hit the board maybe. But i'm still not sold on that race yesterday. Did not like the pace scenario at all.
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Old 04-07-2013, 10:57 AM   #56
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Would a fast pace in the Derby and the extra diistance out of all the preps who would it suit?.
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Old 04-07-2013, 11:22 AM   #57
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Would a fast pace in the Derby and the extra diistance out of all the preps who would it suit?.
Hard to know. Sometimes it suits horses like Orb or Normandy Invasion, sometimes it suits forwardly placed horses that have good stamina.
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Old 04-07-2013, 11:37 AM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
The SA Derby last year was an absolute crawl for the first 6f and then they really rocketed home
The pace of the SA Derby last year was approximately equivalent to the final-time figure.
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Old 04-07-2013, 12:11 PM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
I think all those horses were exposed in a way yesterday and now, Verranzano is "dressed up" and ready to go as another Pletcher chalky derby contender.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MickJ26
I think we'd all agree that Verrazano is going to be an underlay next month.

Not so sure about this.You have to figure the majority of the public is going to use beyers and coming into the derby.

Goldencents 105
Verrazano 95


Would say Goldencents and Flashback are going to be the dressed up horses.
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Old 04-07-2013, 12:49 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bob60566
Would a fast pace in the Derby and the extra diistance out of all the preps who would it suit?.
Come on guys, shouldn't you wait until the Derby field is finalized, and all the starters are saddled up, all the data is in, including scratches, etc., before trying to decide contenders? Heck most of you don't even know the variants from the SA Derby and the Wood. So, you can't compare those 2 race performances yet. I had both winners in my contenders, and according to the odds, a whole bunch of others did also, but I have no idea who the true contenders are for the Derby. Come Derby day we'll know the exact makeup of the field, and have adjusted times for everyone, etc.. Then we can see how these horses match up, at CD, not before, IMO.
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