My issue with the Pacific Classic/Baffert

[cj]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Does this imply that Arrogate was knocking off fractions that were more or less even while Collected was slowing in the last quarter?

Until the last quarter he was steadily losing ground to Collected. That said, yes, Arrogate ran a more "even" race. See attached.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by rgustafson

I'm assuming you are referring to the Dirt Mile when Tamarkuz blew right on by him down the stretch. That's when I went negative on him and I haven't changed my opinion yet.

He's looked really good since then.

I don't think Gun Runner is overrated. But I do think Collected is underrated (and cj's math seems to confirm this).

[Andy Asaro]

Has anyone brought up the notion that Gunner Runner may not like the Del Mar surface either? It's one of those unknowns that you don't know till they do it.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by cj

Until the last quarter he was steadily losing ground to Collected. That said, yes, Arrogate ran a more "even" race. See attached.

Thanks. I can see that in your numbers.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Has anyone brought up the notion that Gunner Runner may not like the Del Mar surface either? It's one of those unknowns that you don't know till they do it.

The east/west BC ship has also been tough on horses the last 10 years... As a group they've been overbet. Hard to imagine GR's odds will reflect his actual chances.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Mc990

The east/west BC ship has also been tough on horses the last 10 years... As a group they've been overbet. Hard to imagine GR's odds will reflect his actual chances.

Given the unique surface it would probably be wise to toss any short price with no races over the surface.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Mc990

The east/west BC ship has also been tough on horses the last 10 years... As a group they've been overbet. Hard to imagine GR's odds will reflect his actual chances.

As of now, if I were to go to Las Vegas and bet the future book, I'd bet Collected.

But I would also say that I think Gun Runner and other eastern horses might very well like the new deeper, slower Del Mar surface and might make good bets on BC day. Gun Runner's disappointing mile race came at Santa Anita, which has the old-style harder surface.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

As of now, if I were to go to Las Vegas and bet the future book, I'd bet Collected.

But I would also say that I think Gun Runner and other eastern horses might very well like the new deeper, slower Del Mar surface and might make good bets on BC day. Gun Runner's disappointing mile race came at Santa Anita, which has the old-style harder surface.

that was going to be my point. This track is probably closer to Belmont and Saratoga than it is to Santa Anita in terms of speed and depth, just listening to what trainers and riders say.