My issue with the Pacific Classic/Baffert

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

No kidding, pal.

You said his stride never looked good, and that's where you were wrong. He looked good the entire time except for the turn and top of the stretch.

You've shown very little aptitude for actual horses and their movement. I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living, so I'm comfortable with stating what was there, which lo and behold, both Smith and Baffert agreed with.

Last word

[Dahoss9698]

Fager Fraud watches works for a living but to my knowledge has never really offered up a pre race opinion.

I believe him.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living.

In all honesty, had you not stated what you did in your post, I'd have never come to that conclusion from reading your posts in the last 4 years....

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

No kidding, pal.

You said his stride never looked good, and that's where you were wrong. He looked good the entire time except for the turn and top of the stretch.

You've shown very little aptitude for actual horses and their movement. I select horses at 2yoIT sales and watch works for a living, so I'm comfortable with stating what was there, which lo and behold, both Smith and Baffert agreed with.

Never looked comfortable to me and had to be pushed along to get near the pace. He was swimming on the turn for home and didn't grab the surface till late stretch.

Most of us understand that Trainers and Jocks say one thing in public and something else privately. Del Mar is very sensitive about the surface. Fatalities are way down but soft tissue injuries way up. They don't want to have people believe that it's 50-50 that their horses may not like the surface. Anything said that might impact negatively impact field size for the next meet is discouraged IMIO.

To give you an example look at the whip rule in Ca. Stevens and Smith came out for it and were very vocal about it when lobbied by Bo Derek. They both came to regret that decision. Both have been fined several times and so have alot of other jockeys. They know they're gonna get fined for trying to hard but do it anyway. Crazy rule IMO

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Never looked comfortable to me and had to be pushed along to get near the pace. He was swimming on the turn for home and didn't grab the surface till late stretch.

Most of us understand that Trainers and Jocks say one thing in public and something else privately. Del Mar is very sensitive about the surface. Fatalities are way down but soft tissue injuries way up. They don't want to have people believe that it's 50-50 that their horses may not like the surface. Anything said that might impact negatively impact field size for the next meet is discouraged IMIO.

To give you an example look at the whip rule in Ca. Stevens and Smith came out for it and were very vocal about it when lobbied by Bo Derek. They both came to regret that decision. Both have been fined several times and so have alot of other jockeys. They know they're gonna get fined for trying to hard but do it anyway. Crazy rule IMO

This horse is a very valuable stallion prospect, and he has an extreme rarity going in his favor, which was the aura of a great and invincibility. The pressure to retain that is immense, so those managing the horse will/should do things that aren't done with the normal horse, which includes not running the horse over a surface that causes him to lose. This trainer didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday and should well know when his horse really dislikes the surface. He ran the horse over the surface the first time, in the San Diego, and the result was the horse falling back to earth. It was an immense blow to his reputation, but not one that wasn't recoverable. So the trainer and the horse's managers look at all the possibilities for his next run, and what do they decide? To run him again on that same surface, despite there being other spots in which to run him. And now, despite a second loss on the surface, they are still talking of running him yet a third time over it, in the BCC.

If they have any inkling at all that the horse didn't like the surface, then they wouldn't run in the San Diego. If they came out of that race thinking it was the surface, then they wouldn't run him there again. They ship him East and give him a good win there to regain his prior reputation, then maybe retire instead of running in the BCC and risk losing there. Instead they ran there again, and plan to run there a third time.

It does no harm to Del Mar to say the horse doesn't like the surface. After all, they aren't criticizing the management, just a personal distaste by a horse that happens occasionally. Baffert nor Mike have any worry that Del Mar will punish them.

It's not 100%, but it's pretty close that really top-notch dirt horses can handle any dirt surface (as well as any condition of that surface). This horse had traveled to a number of tracks and handled with ease all of them.

Anyway, what you and others are suggesting is that the trainer, owner and jockey are all oblivious to something as easily discernible as a horse's like or dislike for a surface. That just isn't logical to me.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

This horse is a very valuable stallion prospect, and he has an extreme rarity going in his favor, which was the aura of a great and invincibility. The pressure to retain that is immense, so those managing the horse will/should do things that aren't done with the normal horse, which includes not running the horse over a surface that causes him to lose. This trainer didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday and should well know when his horse really dislikes the surface. He ran the horse over the surface the first time, in the San Diego, and the result was the horse falling back to earth. It was an immense blow to his reputation, but not one that wasn't recoverable. So the trainer and the horse's managers look at all the possibilities for his next run, and what do they decide? To run him again on that same surface, despite there being other spots in which to run him. And now, despite a second loss on the surface, they are still talking of running him yet a third time over it, in the BCC.

If they have any inkling at all that the horse didn't like the surface, then they wouldn't run in the San Diego. If they came out of that race thinking it was the surface, then they wouldn't run him there again. They ship him East and give him a good win there to regain his prior reputation, then maybe retire instead of running in the BCC and risk losing there. Instead they ran there again, and plan to run there a third time.

It does no harm to Del Mar to say the horse doesn't like the surface. After all, they aren't criticizing the management, just a personal distaste by a horse that happens occasionally. Baffert nor Mike have any worry that Del Mar will punish them.

It's not 100%, but it's pretty close that really top-notch dirt horses can handle any dirt surface (as well as any condition of that surface). This horse had traveled to a number of tracks and handled with ease all of them.

Anyway, what you and others are suggesting is that the trainer, owner and jockey are all oblivious to something as easily discernible as a horse's like or dislike for a surface. That just isn't logical to me.

Breeders' Cup

Trainer/Jockey aren't oblivious they just say things privately that they won't say publicly. Not a new thing in Horse Racing.

This isn't the same surface they had last year

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Breeders' Cup

Trainer/Jockey aren't oblivious they just say things privately that they won't say publicly. Not a new thing in Horse Racing.

This isn't the same surface they had last year

Why wouldn't they say? You really think they're more concerned about hurting Del Mar's feelings than protecting the reputation and value of their horse?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Look at his stride going by the stands the first time. It was a nice, smooth, extended stride. That's not a horse not liking the surface.

I see him as more of a grinder with some speed. I think he's a tad slower in terms of natural turn of foot than some other Grade 1 caliber horses. He beats them because he has more stamina and can sustain his speed longer than horses with more of it. If the race quickens, other faster horses may be able to get away from him. That gives you the illusion that he's struggling. Then when they start tiring and he starts gaining, it gives you the illusion that he's finally kicking in. But in reality he's just grinding away and can run all day at an excellent clip. I'd love to see this horse run 12F. I think he'd crush! But imo against really quick high level horses, when they all start making their move, a few may outrun him.

(which is of course why I think "sitting on CC" and waiting for Arrogate was a monumental error given that CC had excellent turn of foot and could have extended his lead late turn and into the stretch (just like Collected) and finished about the same given he was not exhausted at the end)

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I see him as more of a grinder with some speed. I think he's a tad slower in terms of natural turn of foot than some other Grade 1 caliber horses. He beats them because he has more stamina and can sustain his speed longer than horses with more of it. If the race quickens, other faster horses may be able to get away from him. That gives you the illusion that he's struggling. Then when they start tiring and he starts gaining, it gives you the illusion that he's finally kicking in. But in reality he's just grinding away and can run all day at an excellent clip. I'd love to see this horse run 12F. I think he'd crush!

Seems that way, but he certainly had natural turn of foot in the Travers.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Why wouldn't they say? You really think they're more concerned about hurting Del Mar's feelings than protecting the reputation and value of their horse?

It's a lot more than their feelings. It's about Del Mar and California Racing putting on a great show that handles big money. And it's about getting horses to come to California and run in preps for the Breeders' Cup

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

On number 2, I thought it is possible the people who say he doesn't like the track have a point. He was asked to run several tims and didn't respond. He is a competitor, so he finally tried to gut it out in the stretch, but this race totally looked like what a good horse who dislikes a surface might do.

I agree. However, that surface might change for the Breeders Cup since it seems that BC tracks suddenly get much faster than they normally run. Del Mar's deep cushion might just be rolled and watered down or whatever they do to make them faster.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Augenj

I agree. However, that surface might change for the Breeders Cup since it seems that BC tracks suddenly get much faster than they normally run. Del Mar's deep cushion might just be rolled and watered down or whatever they do to make them faster.

it definitley plays a bit different in the fall versus summer. guess we will see what happens with this new track.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

This horse is a very valuable stallion prospect, and he has an extreme rarity going in his favor, which was the aura of a great and invincibility. The pressure to retain that is immense, so those managing the horse will/should do things that aren't done with the normal horse, which includes not running the horse over a surface that causes him to lose. This trainer didn't fall off the turnip truck yesterday and should well know when his horse really dislikes the surface. He ran the horse over the surface the first time, in the San Diego, and the result was the horse falling back to earth. It was an immense blow to his reputation, but not one that wasn't recoverable. So the trainer and the horse's managers look at all the possibilities for his next run, and what do they decide? To run him again on that same surface, despite there being other spots in which to run him. And now, despite a second loss on the surface, they are still talking of running him yet a third time over it, in the BCC.

If they have any inkling at all that the horse didn't like the surface, then they wouldn't run in the San Diego. If they came out of that race thinking it was the surface, then they wouldn't run him there again. They ship him East and give him a good win there to regain his prior reputation, then maybe retire instead of running in the BCC and risk losing there. Instead they ran there again, and plan to run there a third time.

It does no harm to Del Mar to say the horse doesn't like the surface. After all, they aren't criticizing the management, just a personal distaste by a horse that happens occasionally. Baffert nor Mike have any worry that Del Mar will punish them.

It's not 100%, but it's pretty close that really top-notch dirt horses can handle any dirt surface (as well as any condition of that surface). This horse had traveled to a number of tracks and handled with ease all of them.

Anyway, what you and others are suggesting is that the trainer, owner and jockey are all oblivious to something as easily discernible as a horse's like or dislike for a surface. That just isn't logical to me.

Nice post. I will add that i never lost any respect for Easy Goer and Skip Away for their struggling over the Churchill Downs track. It does happen occasionally. For whatever reason, Smith has said that in both races at Del Mar, he has not pulled up with the same energy as his previous races.

[woodbinepmi]

Originally Posted by cj

That is the point. He didn't not do a good job, he did a horrible job of it. It was almost painful to watch. If I owned the other horse I'd be following in Kaleem Shah's footsteps.

I'm still trying to figure out how he talked the owners of Cupid, romping winner of the G1 Santa Anita Gold Cup last out, into running in some weak ass overnight stakes this Wednesday.

Totally agree with you.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Never looked comfortable to me and had to be pushed along to get near the pace. He was swimming on the turn for home and didn't grab the surface till late stretch.

Most of us understand that Trainers and Jocks say one thing in public and something else privately. Del Mar is very sensitive about the surface. Fatalities are way down but soft tissue injuries way up. They don't want to have people believe that it's 50-50 that their horses may not like the surface. Anything said that might impact negatively impact field size for the next meet is discouraged IMIO.

To give you an example look at the whip rule in Ca. Stevens and Smith came out for it and were very vocal about it when lobbied by Bo Derek. They both came to regret that decision. Both have been fined several times and so have alot of other jockeys. They know they're gonna get fined for trying to hard but do it anyway. Crazy rule IMO

Hard to imagine Mike Smith lobbying for limitation in whip use. He's one of the best "wind-millers".