Determine The Patsy
Determine The Patsy
Value.
A lot of good suggestions about tweaking your game, and I thought it prudent to touch on this.
By the time you've completed your handicapping, - but before you've structured your wager,
the horseplayer must have a valuation step of some sort.
Because of the reality of how the parimutuel system works,
the public has to be wrong about something, in order for there to be enough value to overcome takeout, and create an 'overlay'.
I call this step 'determining the patsy', after a great Warren Buffett quote;
"If you’ve been playing poker for half an hour, and you still don’t know who the patsy is, YOU'RE the patsy."
The public has to be wrong about something, and it has to be relatively significant.
Maybe the favorite in the Win pool is vulnerable?
Or, maybe the favorite is very strong, but the 2nd choice on the board(perhaps the 2nd most likely winner) is actually less likely to fill out the exacta than a generously priced stretch-runner?
As long as you can identify that the public is 'wrong' about something, you can move forward and construct a wager with the goal of positive expectation.
