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Old 05-13-2015, 02:48 PM   #46
Pensacola Pete
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The premise that 33% of all favorites win (roughly correct) doesn't mean that 67% are price horses. The first three favorites win about 67% of all races, and few are longshots. With an average field size of about 8, that means that there are 5 horses in a race with a combined chance of winning of about 32%.

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From what I've come to understand about horse racing, the most significant portion of a race is the last couple of furlongs. Quite often, the jockeys will set a leisurely pace around the track, and then it's a mad dash for the last quarter mile. As long as a horse has decent sprint ability for at least a few furlongs, I'll consider it a potential winner at any distance.
That's generally true of turf racing overseas, particularly in Australia. Most of the race is run at a near-canter. The last 400 meters is where the action happens. Here in the states on the main track, it's not nearly as important.
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Old 05-14-2015, 11:42 AM   #47
ChristianBlake
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Originally Posted by Poindexter
I think the point the author is trying to make is that given the wide variance of talent in maiden races, a horse, that is dropping from a MDN, to a Mdn 20, might not really have that perceived class edge the public thinks he does. He uses other strategies to actually gauge the class of the horse and is basically looking for horses that may falsely appear too cheap to compete.
You explained that perfectly.

While class distinction between claiming levels can be mostly trusted, the difference between MSW and MC, in my opinion, is blurred. A MDN CLM will beat a MSW far more often than a 10K claimer will beat a 50K claimer.

Situations I noticed relating to maidens:

MDN CLM moving to MSW: Near as I can tell, there's two explanations for this move. (1) The trainer saw something special in its last performance and is moving it up for either a big payout or to eliminate the risk of losing the horse. The public will almost never back a MDN claimer moving into MSW. Place and Show bettors should pay particular attention to these class moves because even if the maiden claimer doesn't win, if it manages to get 2nd or 3rd, the payouts can be big. (2) The trainer saw something special and is setting it up for a big payout 2 races down the road. The MSW entry is just a sideshow; the horse loses miserably and then the trainer drops it back down into MDN CLM and wins at a price. There is one trainer in particular at GG that will darken the form like this deliberately. He does this exact scenario several times a year.

MSW dropping to MC: This is when the owner has most likely conceded that their $200K purchase might be a mule in disguise. When a MSW drops to MDN CLM, it's a perfect opportunity to cash in. The public will hammer that MSW to disgustingly low odds and will ignore solid performing maidens that have only knocked around in the maiden claiming ranks. Usually the odds will be so low on the MSW horse that you can make 2 or 3 Win bets on multiple horses because the odds dictate multiple win bets as a viable wagering strategy.
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Old 05-14-2015, 08:30 PM   #48
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Book Reviews

I have posted my review on the Amazon website. Thanks for the offer!
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Old 05-14-2015, 10:03 PM   #49
Poindexter
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Interesting tidbit. Played Santa Anita today. In the 7th I liked a longshot for value purposes Rich in Tradition. Played him win/place and played him in the 2 hole and 3 hole in exactas/trifectas(mostly behind the winning favorite). In the last couple of minutes I realized that longshot smil'n from above who I did not like, but fit the bill as one on the angles in the book kept drifting up in odds(was 27-1 when I noticed him) So I tossed him in with the favorite and rich in tradition in a 3 horse trifecta box, coming back with extra with the favorite on top. Favorite wins by a nose over the smilin from above, and rich in Tradition gets photo'd out of 3rd. Ran out of time and screwed up the superfecta cover, and only had it for a dime, so show photo cost me a lot, but point is that for a very small bet, just tossing in one of his longshot plays almost got me a nice little hit. Still made money on the race, which I would not have otherwise, but could have been a nice little hit had my longshot gotten up for 3rd. Also played the race very poorly(should have had the exacta and a larger super-but I did run out of time). The longshot pointed out by his book just missed at 41-1(and likely would have gotten up to win if not for traffic trouble in the lane). The $1 exacta which I did not have came back $47. Bottom line, is you are never done learning in this game. Would not have used this 41-1 shot who came 2nd if not for reading this very short book.

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Old 05-16-2015, 07:59 AM   #50
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Thumbs up Long Shots Review

Christian,

Just posted on Amazon. I enjoyed reading the book best wishes & good luck with sales.
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Old 05-16-2015, 08:29 AM   #51
Robert Goren
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristianBlake

MSW dropping to MC: This is when the owner has most likely conceded that their $200K purchase might be a mule in disguise. When a MSW drops to MDN CLM, it's a perfect opportunity to cash in. The public will hammer that MSW to disgustingly low odds and will ignore solid performing maidens that have only knocked around in the maiden claiming ranks. Usually the odds will be so low on the MSW horse that you can make 2 or 3 Win bets on multiple horses because the odds dictate multiple win bets as a viable wagering strategy.
Put 3 of these kind of droppers in a race and you can get really great odds on a horse dropping a level in maiden claiming price. Fourth place finishers in their last such race seem to get ignored a lot in these types of races. I have caught some triple digit winners in these situations. But you do need big fields to hide them and we all know how rare they are today.
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Old 05-19-2015, 08:54 AM   #52
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Long shots are horses that should go off at low odds and are going off at fair odds or higher, or horses that should go off at fair odds and are going off at long odds. Surprises are horses showing a little something that should be at least fair odds or better. The term long shot gets missed used to cover a wider range than it should.
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