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Old 11-08-2018, 03:27 PM   #1
dilanesp
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blog post with a lesson for handicappers

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...study-you-see/

Basically, before 2000, researchers were permitted to develop their hypotheses to fit apparent patterns in the data when researching cardiovascular treatments. And they found all sorts of "patterns" which seemed significant but turned out not to be.

After 2000, they were required to state their hypothesis before testing it, and it turned out there were very few significant results.

There's an obvious lesson here for handicappers.
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Old 11-08-2018, 10:51 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...study-you-see/

Basically, before 2000, researchers were permitted to develop their hypotheses to fit apparent patterns in the data when researching cardiovascular treatments. And they found all sorts of "patterns" which seemed significant but turned out not to be.

After 2000, they were required to state their hypothesis before testing it, and it turned out there were very few significant results.

There's an obvious lesson here for handicappers.
We don't know shit from Shinola?
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Old 11-09-2018, 09:54 PM   #3
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We don't know shit from Shinola?
Funny how you can use a swear word but I get a red flag for that
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:12 PM   #4
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I stumbled across a phase used in statistics one time and have it posted prominently where I can see it when making coding changes to my system:

"Correlation does not imply causation"

Defined elsewhere as:

"Causation is the relationship between cause and effect. So, when a cause results in an effect, that's a causation. ... When we say that correlation does not imply cause, we mean that just because you can see a connection or a mutual relationship between two variables, it doesn't necessarily mean that one causes the other."

Year to year, there are few variables or conditions that are persistent profitably at one track let alone all tracks. That's my humble opinion after data mining thousands of races at major tracks.
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:17 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Augenj View Post
I stumbled across a phase used in statistics one time and have it posted prominently where I can see it when making coding changes to my system:

"Correlation does not imply causation"

Defined elsewhere as:

"Causation is the relationship between cause and effect. So, when a cause results in an effect, that's a causation. ... When we say that correlation does not imply cause, we mean that just because you can see a connection or a mutual relationship between two variables, it doesn't necessarily mean that one causes the other."

Year to year, there are few variables or conditions that are persistent profitably at one track let alone all tracks. That's my humble opinion after data mining thousands of races at major tracks.
If I make it to 75, I want to be just like you....Just correlating here, John...
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:32 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...study-you-see/

Basically, before 2000, researchers were permitted to develop their hypotheses to fit apparent patterns in the data when researching cardiovascular treatments. And they found all sorts of "patterns" which seemed significant but turned out not to be.

After 2000, they were required to state their hypothesis before testing it, and it turned out there were very few significant results.

There's an obvious lesson here for handicappers.
Right, like pay attention to Jockeys.
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:51 PM   #7
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If I make it to 75, I want to be just like you....Just correlating here, John...
Get out there and hike the Grand Canyon like I do.
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Old 11-09-2018, 10:54 PM   #8
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Get out there and hike the Grand Canyon like I do.
You might hike it down, spend the night at Phantom Ranch, but then take a mule to haul your butt back up...
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Old 11-09-2018, 11:11 PM   #9
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Funny how you can use a swear word but I get a red flag for that
How do know that he did not get a red card? That stuff is done privately. It's too bad that we don't have a quarter jar. That way PA could make his nut easier every month.
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Old 11-09-2018, 11:17 PM   #10
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You might hike it down, spend the night at Phantom Ranch, but then take a mule to haul your butt back up...
Not allowed to do that. You have to be injured and then take a costly helicopter back out. Did I mention to you that I walk 3.3 miles every morning at over 3 miles per hour up and down hills? I'll be here 20 years from now, having never smoked my whole life and still pretending to be a handicapper. (meanwhile, back to the post)
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Old 11-10-2018, 12:03 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...study-you-see/

Basically, before 2000, researchers were permitted to develop their hypotheses to fit apparent patterns in the data when researching cardiovascular treatments. And they found all sorts of "patterns" which seemed significant but turned out not to be.

After 2000, they were required to state their hypothesis before testing it, and it turned out there were very few significant results.

There's an obvious lesson here for handicappers.
It's true - people always find what they are looking for.
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Old 11-10-2018, 12:11 AM   #12
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Funny how you can use a swear word but I get a red flag for that
Your posts are sounding like cries for help.
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Old 11-10-2018, 02:00 AM   #13
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Funny how you can use a swear word but I get a red flag for that
You have enough going on without trying to be a moderator as well. I'm sure you are way too young to know about NYPD Blue, but that is the standard here. If you want to report a post, do so. These kinds of posts don't work.
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Old 11-10-2018, 08:19 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...study-you-see/

Basically, before 2000, researchers were permitted to develop their hypotheses to fit apparent patterns in the data when researching cardiovascular treatments. And they found all sorts of "patterns" which seemed significant but turned out not to be.

After 2000, they were required to state their hypothesis before testing it, and it turned out there were very few significant results.

There's an obvious lesson here for handicappers.
One thing I learned in my graduate studies in Social Research. "He who pays you, sways you". Remember the old debunked Food Pyramid the govt and doctors were pushing that had bread and carbs as the most important part of diet? Turns out it was based on s study paid for by the wheat industry.
We need studies but we need to learn how to interpret them.
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Old 11-10-2018, 08:46 AM   #15
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Big Pharma (the pharmaceutical industry) loves how Lasix is used by practically all trainers. The fact is that there is not one scientific study that shows it is effective against bleeding. The one study done indicates that it is not. But the trainers don't want to know and the racing industry doesn't care
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