Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-27-2017, 01:57 PM   #1
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 4,189
Rep Power: 16 jay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura about
Is This a good Longshot?

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:26 PM   #2
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,678
Rep Power: 5 TheOracle is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)




Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:38 PM   #3
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,535
Rep Power: 10 AndyC will become famous soon enoughAndyC will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
If what you write is true, why would the horse be a longshot? There has got to be more to the story. Rarely do horses that are tops in figs end up being longshots.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:43 PM   #4
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 4,189
Rep Power: 16 jay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura about
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 03:03 PM   #5
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 717
Rep Power: 10 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 03:12 PM   #6
Nutz and Boltz
Mad as hell !
 
Nutz and Boltz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Bridgeport, CT
Posts: 720
Rep Power: 4 Nutz and Boltz will become famous soon enoughNutz and Boltz will become famous soon enough
I'm thinking that Manoffire may be too far back early to win here.
__________________
.... And, I trust No One !
Nutz and Boltz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 03:21 PM   #7
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 4,189
Rep Power: 16 jay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.
Funny you mention the in that race, i have him as my second horse.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 03:52 PM   #8
Nutz and Boltz
Mad as hell !
 
Nutz and Boltz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Bridgeport, CT
Posts: 720
Rep Power: 4 Nutz and Boltz will become famous soon enoughNutz and Boltz will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey

That 6th race back was over 2 years ago. If healthy, I'd take the one horse in this race. A lot of layoff lines showing, though. The nine horse is dropping to state bred competition.
__________________
.... And, I trust No One !

Last edited by Nutz and Boltz; 09-27-2017 at 03:58 PM.
Nutz and Boltz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 03:56 PM   #9
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 4,189
Rep Power: 16 jay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nutz and Boltz View Post
That 6th race back was over 2 years ago.
You are right, my thinking is it just proves that the basic requirement to win this race is there.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 08:18 PM   #10
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 4,189
Rep Power: 16 jay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura about
Closed again, either needs more pace or a drop in class. In the end was not a good bet.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 09:22 PM   #11
n.c
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 192
Rep Power: 1 n.c is on a distinguished road
reason i would have avoided the 4 is

the fact that all other horses seem to be in way better condition...
personally i would have keyed Jason Servis horse, at 6-1 at the top 2 spots, but it finished 3rd

Servis the ttrainer a plus
horse 5 out of 6 in the money at Belmont
2 for 2 hitting the board at this distance
Servis horse threw a clunker last time out, so the horse will be better prepared.
n.c is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 01:15 AM   #12
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 4,189
Rep Power: 16 jay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura aboutjay68802 has a spectacular aura about
Is This A Good Longshot?

Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17

Smile Big 10-1

Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 01:43 AM   #13
thaskalos
"Are you talking to ME?"
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 19,648
Rep Power: 35 thaskalos is just really nicethaskalos is just really nicethaskalos is just really nicethaskalos is just really nicethaskalos is just really nice
A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.
__________________
"If someone gave away your body to the first man he met, you would be indignant. But yet you trust your mind to the chance comer, and allow it to be disturbed and confounded if he reviles you. Are you not ashamed to do so?"
-- Epictetus, Enchiridion 28
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 01:56 AM   #14
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 3,556
Rep Power: 5 VigorsTheGrey will become famous soon enough
Did you guys notice Fairy Link in the 4th today?
Krist nailed him with a 15-1 ML...! Good Guy...
http://www.kristpicks.com/

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Joe has been hot lately too...Same agent as Jose who is out with sore knee...Look for Joe to boot more sleepers in soon....

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 09-28-2017 at 01:59 AM.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 11:54 AM   #15
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,678
Rep Power: 5 TheOracle is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)




Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know
J C Englehart really disappointed me in that race



Of course I didn't have Isotope in the 3rd
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Which book(s) would you recommend to a Newbie" Up to 3
Picking Winners: A Horseplayer's Guide by Andrew Beyer 1994 - 22.68%
22 Votes
Betting on Horse Racing For Dummies by Richard Eng - 6.19%
6 Votes
The Winning Horseplayer by Andrew Beyer 2007 - 8.25%
8 Votes
Betting Thoroughbreds by Steven Davidovitz and Andrew Beyer 1997 - 15.46%
15 Votes
Exotic Betting by Steven Crist 2006 - 13.40%
13 Votes
Bet With the Best by Andrew Beyer and Steve Davidowitz 2001 - 4.12%
4 Votes
Getting the Best of It by David Sklansky 1997 - 2.06%
2 Votes
How to WIN the PICK 6 by Steven Kolb 2009 - 1.03%
1 Vote
Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century by Steve Davidowitz and Steven Crist 2009 - 9.28%
9 Votes
Finding The Hidden Horse: Tips, tricks, angles and secrets by William Davidson 2017 - 1.03%
1 Vote
The Blood-Horse Authoritative Guide to Betting Thorougbreds by the Blood-Horse staff 2005 - 1.03%
1 Vote
Profitable Horse Race Betting Using Stock Market Techniques by Aaron Ainslie and Woodbine Mike 2015 - 0%
0 Votes
Secrets of Professional Turf Betting by Robert L Bacon 1952 - 1.03%
1 Vote
Commonsense Betting by Dick Mitchell 1995 - 7.22%
7 Votes
Overlay, Overlay by Bill Heller 2004 - 0%
0 Votes
Thoroughbred Cycles by Mark Cramer 1990 - 15.46%
15 Votes
Handicapping 101 by Brad Free 2004 - 14.43%
14 Votes
Complete Idiot's Guide to Betting on Horses by Sharon B. Smith 1998 - 0%
0 Votes
Beyer on Speed by Andrew Beyer 2012 - 12.37%
12 Votes
Trifecta: The Business of Betting Thoroughbreds by Bobby Zen 2012 - 0%
0 Votes
Finding an Edge: A 21st century book by Ron Loftus 2014 - 1.03%
1 Vote
Winning without Thinking by Nick Mordin 2002 - 3.09%
3 Votes
Six Secrets of Successful Bettors by Frank R. Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale 2005 - 10.31%
10 Votes
Money Secrets At The Racetrack Paperback by Barry Meadow 2000 - 17.53%
17 Votes
Smarter Bets - The Exacta Way by Keith Hoffman 2013 - 0%
0 Votes
Betting Maidens and 2-Year-Olds by Dan Illman 2005 - 1.03%
1 Vote
Winning Horseracing Handicapping by Chuck Badone 1999 - 1.03%
1 Vote
The Power of Early Speed by Steve Klein 2005 - 4.12%
4 Votes
Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer 2000 - 25.77%
25 Votes
None, just go to the track. - 4.12%
4 Votes
None, all are outdated - 8.25%
8 Votes
Other (please specify) - 19.59%
19 Votes
Total Votes: 97
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2017 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.