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Old 08-07-2012, 04:04 PM   #1
Ray2000
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Spreadsheet Tool for Exacta players.


Lately, I've been using a spreadsheet "App" to decide whether to box3, box2, keybox or wheel my picks.
I believe this sheet can improve a player's ROI by cutting down on the No-value bets.
Some Harness Exacta players here might find it useful. (It's limited to 10 horse fields but can be used for T-breds with some changes)

I will put this sheet up as an attachment if there is enough interest and if I can get some feed back on its use.
I need some beta testers ...I will not sell it but post it for free use.

Cost?.....It's free
What Tracks?..............................Most USA tracks plus Mohawk, Woodbine
Do I need an account or password?....No, It uses freely available WEB data
Do I have to handicap the Race?......Actually No, You can watch if the crowd faves are overlays in the Exacta pool or examine any 3 picks using current Toteboard odds. (What are the gray horse paying? ) If you don't want to create a line for your top 3 picks, it will use the current tote line.

What does it do????

It keeps a running history of the Exacta Will-Pays for Crowd Faves and also Your picks as the race approaches Posttime, showing which combos are poor bets. BTW, I am aware of the big objection to trying to use toteboard odds because of the last flip changes but I have found that patterns do exist. Poor bets tend to stay poor and bets "on the cusp" usually get pounded but others show promise. Finding what works at the track you play is all part of the game.

I've found that I can trust looking at prices, up to 2-3 minutes beyond the first appearance of "0 MTP" and still use the board info in getting a bet down. This is where patterns become useful.

The layout looks a bit confusing but some rows can be cleared if not wanted. At the very top you set the Track and Race number. Click on either of 2 Red Update buttons and the next 12 rows will show the usual tote information plus an alternate Win odds line created by "How the horse is being used" in Exacta pool. (This can sometimes spot barn money trying to hide in Exacta Wheels). 2 other rows give Place bet Minimum Prices and Dr Z Place pool Expectancies by Win/Place inefficiencies.

Now for the good part...

The bottom half of the spreadsheet has current Exacta Will Pays for Crowd Faves and Your Picks for the 6 combos of Exacta Plays...a/b, b/a, a/c, c/a, b/c, c/b. Poor paying bets to avoid are shown in red font. The algorithm uses Discounted Harville calculations based on Win pool amounts to determine "Good vs Poor" Bets. For the users Picks/Odds it includes an adjustable "safety" factor. By watching the "RED" bets you can decide to go for 3box (all white font) or 2box or Part wheel. If you "Update" once a minute the history of the Exacta Will Pays will be recorded so you can judge if any patterns are emerging and wether a wager is called for.

I am not going to spend the time and effort to write up the "Manual Details" unless there's enough interest.

The attachment shows The Meadows Race #7 today where I was able to limit my bet to the 1-4 Box.
I placed the bet at the 5927$ point in time...(It hit)


I'll be interested in any comments/suggestions.

Attached Images
File Type: jpg mea7.jpg (123.7 KB, 742 views)
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Last edited by Ray2000; 08-07-2012 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 08-07-2012, 05:26 PM   #2
mrroyboy
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Ray Of course I want it. I have been following you for years. Anything you make has got to be good!!!
mrroyboy@embarqmail.com

Last edited by mrroyboy; 08-07-2012 at 05:27 PM.
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:49 PM   #3
jimnancy
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I would like to look at it also Ray. Not sure if I could fiqure it out but I would like to try. As I told you before the exacta wiil pays used to be my thing.

Do you need my email?
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:17 PM   #4
tamaharbor
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Please post it Ray. You are my idol!
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Old 08-07-2012, 10:23 PM   #5
teddy
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Me too

Count me in!
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Old 08-07-2012, 11:34 PM   #6
traynor
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Original paper:
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.230...21101123919201

http://stat-www.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/ali.pdf

Last edited by traynor; 08-07-2012 at 11:35 PM.
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Old 08-08-2012, 09:29 AM   #7
SchagFactorToWin
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All I play are exactas at 2 tracks, so I'm in.
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Old 08-08-2012, 10:26 AM   #8
pacer
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How do I get the calculator
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Old 08-08-2012, 10:47 AM   #9
Ray2000
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pacer
I'll put up the 1st version later today. I'm waiting for some tracks to open to make some tweaks.



traynor
thx for the links
the Harville approach (even discounted Harville) is one of the weaker methods to predict 2nd and 3rd place finishers (Henery is better ?) but for the purpose of this sheet, it provides a workable base for comparison of the exacta combinations in the 3 box.


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Old 08-08-2012, 11:02 AM   #10
Sinner369
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Count...........!!!

Ray.........count me in for the App!

And thanks in advance!
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Old 08-08-2012, 12:43 PM   #11
mrroyboy
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See Everybody wants it. Told you so.
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Old 08-08-2012, 02:16 PM   #12
Ray2000
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Sheet download

Ok, seems there's enough interest...

This spreadsheet requires the features of Microsoft Office 2007 for Conditional Cell Formatting and the function "IFERROR". Also you will need to allow Macros to run.
Open Excel 2007 and click the Office button
Click the Trust Center button on the left.
Select Trust Center Settings. at the bottom right
choose Macro Settings...then.enable all macros

This Forum doesn't allow attachments of Excel files of type .xlsm so I have changed the extension to ".xls". After downloading (by right clicking the attachment) change the name back to ExactaWatch.xlsm.

MAKE A COPY of THE FILE to fall back on if necessary.

You can now open the spreadsheet. There are no hidden pages or cells, the macro code is unlocked.
The only cells that the user should change are in yellow, (Your Picks and/or Odds and 2 constants).
Lambda is the adjustment for Harville Discount, OLEF is a safety margin for "Minimal Accepted WillPays"
Cells are not locked, so keep the changes limited to the yellow cells.

Select a track from the drop down box and set the current Race number. Click on either Red Update Button (there are 2 so you can minimize the window and still see one). Data takes about 5 secs to come in. A message box will appear if unsuccessful but not all errors are trapped as yet.

There are 2 other settings, a check box for "Keep Exacta WillPays" allows you to suspend the grid update if you want to check another track and then come back to the grid history.

The other option setting... "For My Picks" ...tells the program which Odds to use for The picks entered in the yellow cells for your top 3 picks. If you leave the cells for MYodds blank then the sheet will use current toteboard odds for those picks. If you're going to enter your own odds for MyPicks, then try to be realistic meaning, MyOdds1 would be the lowest .... 0.5 - 2.5 (enter numbers as decimal odds). MyOdds 2 and 3 would be in the range of 2.0-6.0 either close or more widespread. This setting might be a little confusing until you get the hang of it. For now "Use My Odds" means use the numbers presently in cells L14:M14 for the odds on my picks.



I'm having a bit of a problem with Excel "forgetting" how to sort the faves ?? Need to Check Fave1 for most win money for a while, until I get this resolved.
error when web data in midst of changing to the next race

other known issues

Batavia Buffalo Lebanon are not always available
Pompano reports numbers differently (after-takeout) and $1 will pays?
others may also have 1$ exactas (need list)

In the top right corner is a list of available or soon to be available tracks.
The T-Bred tracks are not in the drop list at this time.

Not all errors are trapped, refresh should correct but may have to revert to last save

The running history of Crowd favorites' exacta prices (green grid) is not that useful.
.. the 2nd and 3rd faves (sometimes no.1), will most likely be changing.

I'm creating this sheet from a larger version the robot uses, so I don't have as much testing on this one as I would like, but let's see how it goes.



What follows is RaysRobot top3 picks/odds for today, for placing into cells I14-N14 as practice.


PHL R6 1 6 7 0.92 2.59 7.48
PHL R7 2 4 5 2.12 2.90 3.12
PHL R8 7 5 2 0.93 4.24 4.94
PHL R9 8 4 7 1.74 2.57 4.08
PHL R10 6 2 5 1.34 5.42 8.33
PHL R12 2 3 1 2.34 3.54 3.59
PHL R13 3 2 4 2.28 2.40 3.31
PHL R14 5 4 3 1.04 2.71 5.57
STGA R1 6 2 8 2.19 3.07 3.08
STGA R2 4 1 5 1.50 2.16 3.94
STGA R3 7 5 4 0.63 4.58 5.29
STGA R5 5 2 1 1.79 3.20 3.95
STGA R7 6 7 3 0.84 4.80 5.02
STGA R8 4 7 6 1.93 2.27 4.48
STGA R9 2 5 4 0.66 4.67 6.14
STGA R10 1 7 2 0.76 3.31 5.53
STGA R11 8 3 6 1.59 2.21 3.88
STGA R12 1 4 6 1.67 2.58 4.16
MEA R2 2 7 5 2.99 3.11 3.32
MEA R3 4 5 6 0.99 2.43 4.07
MEA R5 3 5 6 1.57 2.37 4.87
MEA R6 4 5 6 1.23 2.31 3.30
MEA R7 8 3 7 2.05 3.69 4.23
MEA R8 5 3 2 1.06 2.00 4.17
MEA R9 8 1 4 1.75 2.31 4.20
MEA R10 8 5 9 0.86 3.65 5.73
MEA R11 9 3 5 2.21 2.35 4.60
MEA R12 4 7 1 1.12 2.14 6.79
MEA R13 1 2 4 1.80 4.14 4.22
MEA R14 3 8 2 1.88 1.97 4.48
MEA R15 6 8 5 0.94 4.56 4.64
Attached Files
File Type: xls ExactaWatch.xls (80.9 KB, 237 views)
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
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Last edited by Ray2000; 08-08-2012 at 02:17 PM.
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Old 08-08-2012, 07:31 PM   #13
Sinner369
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Ray......Question for you????

Ray is the file estension below.........wrong?..........because I cannot open it.

I cannot open it with Excel 2003 neither! I changed the file extension to xlsx and converted it to xls with an online program!



ExactaWatch.xls (80.9 KB, 13 views)
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Old 08-08-2012, 07:37 PM   #14
Ray2000
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the file extension is .XLSM and you need Office 2007 or later

hope this helps, if not I'll put up a 2003 version since I have 2 errors to correct already.
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
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Last edited by Ray2000; 08-08-2012 at 07:39 PM.
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Old 08-08-2012, 08:29 PM   #15
Ray2000
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ExWatch for Excel 2003

This sheet should work on older Excel programs and the short fields (5&6) display correctly

No need to change any file name.
Attached Files
File Type: xls ExactaWatch.xls (177.5 KB, 147 views)
__________________
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