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Old 12-10-2018, 12:24 PM   #46
bobphilo
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Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
How can a horse evenly distribute energy and still accelerate in the stretch? Wouldn't a horse have to conserve energy to do that?
I should have been more clear. I admit that by saying the horse accelerates in the stretch I was appearing to argue against my own position on even pace running. I meant that by running an even pace the horse would have enough energy left to not decelerate in the stretch so it would be accelerating relative to other horses who were tiring. In absolute terms, you are correct, it would not be accelerating.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:29 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
Thoro-Graph will put a lower case "p" next to the number to alert you take a very slow or very fast pace into consideration if you choose. They won't however change the final number.
I believe they use an h to designate a hot pace. But that represents the leader's pace. not the individual horse's. If the horse raced well off the pace it was not hurt by the hot pace.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:35 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
. The biggest score that I've ever made featured a horse just like this...who was EASED under the wire after its exhaustive early-pace battle. I know that the current trend is to turn every speed figure into a "performance rating"...but I don't think that this is warranted in these rare extreme cases.

Another interesting thing that my extensive experience in the game has told me is that, these horses who battle through very fast early paces and still go on to post good speed figures somehow disappoint their next-race backers much more often than not...and often at unappetizing odds. Speaking strictly for myself...I am more inclined to wager next out on the horse who battled against a very fast race...while subsequently posting an unimpressive speed figure.
One of the biggest fallacies that handicappers seem to posess is their belief that each and every entry in a race is there in an attempt to win it. What you’ve described (be it on turf or dirt) is the quintessential “racing workout”. There are specific ways to detect its significance based on how the horse ran the early fractions relative to the leaders. A positive result will cause a trainer to enter this same horse in a specific race within a certain amount of time with every intention of doing well.

I don’t believe these workouts are rare or extreme situations. Trainers have been using this technique of improving an animal’s subsequent performance for decades.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:44 PM   #49
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One of the biggest fallacies that handicappers seem to posess is their belief that each and every entry in a race is there in an attempt to win it. What you’ve described (be it on turf or dirt) is the quintessential “racing workout”. There are specific ways to detect its significance based on how the horse ran the early fractions relative to the leaders. A positive result will cause a trainer to enter this same horse in a specific race within a certain amount of time with every intention of doing well.

I don’t believe these workouts are rare or extreme situations. Trainers have been using this technique of improving an animal’s subsequent performance for decades.
See Desourme (I know that is not how you spell the name, but..). Maiden race without Kent riding, back within three weeks with Kent as the jockey. Applies to a lot of other classes also.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:59 PM   #50
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One of the biggest fallacies that handicappers seem to posess is their belief that each and every entry in a race is there in an attempt to win it. What you’ve described (be it on turf or dirt) is the quintessential “racing workout”. There are specific ways to detect its significance based on how the horse ran the early fractions relative to the leaders. A positive result will cause a trainer to enter this same horse in a specific race within a certain amount of time with every intention of doing well.

I don’t believe these workouts are rare or extreme situations. Trainers have been using this technique of improving an animal’s subsequent performance for decades.
All true...IMO.
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:27 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
I should have been more clear. I admit that by saying the horse accelerates in the stretch I was appearing to argue against my own position on even pace running. I meant that by running an even pace the horse would have enough energy left to not decelerate in the stretch so it would be accelerating relative to other horses who were tiring. In absolute terms, you are correct, it would not be accelerating.
In reality, in most turf races the winners are, in fact, accelerating. Is that a wrong way to run for a horse on turf?
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Old 12-10-2018, 01:57 PM   #52
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Interesting discussion. I'm on the side that riding turf races like dirt races will lead to a lot of losing rides. Turf racing isn't new. Jockeys of course over do it at times but in general they are riding the right way.

Seems to me the kickback on dirt has a lot to do with this. Also, turf just isn't as tiring as dirt. Horses are rarely running as fast as they could have on turf. The races are far more tactical.
In Prof. Wilkens' study on Equine Bioenergetics he debunks the the traditional method of running grass races slow early since, as he says, "The laws of physics don't disappear just because the surface changes". The greater efficiency of even paced running also applies to humans and even cars where MPG is improved by driving at an even speed. That's why stop and go city traffic driving gets poor mileage compared to even speed highway driving.

How tiring a surface is does not change the effect of improved energy distribution of even paced running. In fact dirt surfaces are more tiring than turf. On dirt there is more slippage, less traction and less energy return. I found this out personally when I worked at Belmont and would sneak onto the sandy dirt track for a late night jog compared to my running on grass when I played soccer. Just look at the faster times for turf races compared to dirt races despite the fact that turf courses have sharper turns that reduce speed and the better horses tend to run in dirt races. The exception is when the turf courses become yielding or heavy after rain when they become very slow.
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:15 PM   #53
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I believe they use an h to designate a hot pace. But that represents the leader's pace. not the individual horse's. If the horse raced well off the pace it was not hurt by the hot pace.
The "h" is used when the ground person (guy that watches the films for ground lost on the turns) feels a horse was not asked for everything it had when winning. Jerry Brown believes very strongly that the "number is the number". He will put that "h" as a heads up should you want to adjust for how hard the jock was pushing through the stretch.
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Old 12-10-2018, 03:14 PM   #54
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In reality, in most turf races the winners are, in fact, accelerating. Is that a wrong way to run for a horse on turf?
On one hand we have the fact that a horse will run it's fastest time if it distributes its energy evenly. On the other hand we also have the fact that most turf race winners are accelerating late. The apparent contradiction has to do with the way most turf races are run. Since most riders think that the best way to run a turf race is with late acceleration then most are riding inefficiently by using their energy late and and most winners will usually come from this larger group which makes up most of the field. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

There is a also a more complex explanation drawing upon a parallel with races in human track with extreme paces which I will go into at a later date. Unfortunately, some health issues are preventing me from going into too complex an explanation at present. Need to save some energy for a late intellectual acceleration.
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Old 12-10-2018, 03:20 PM   #55
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On one hand we have the fact that a horse will run it's fastest time if it distributes its energy evenly. On the other hand we also have the fact that most turf race winners are accelerating late. The apparent contradiction has to do with the way most turf races are run. Since most riders think that the best way to run a turf race is with late acceleration then most are riding inefficiently by using their energy late and and most winners will usually come from this larger group which makes up most of the field. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

There is a also a more complex explanation drawing upon a parallel with races in human track with extreme paces which I will go into at a later date. Unfortunately, some health issues are preventing me from going into too complex an explanation at present. Need to save some energy for a late intellectual acceleration.
How do we define "evenly"...when the speed horses and the closers distribute their energy in obviously different ways during the race?
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Old 12-10-2018, 03:23 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
The "h" is used when the ground person (guy that watches the films for ground lost on the turns) feels a horse was not asked for everything it had when winning. Jerry Brown believes very strongly that the "number is the number". He will put that "h" as a heads up should you want to adjust for how hard the jock was pushing through the stretch.
From the Thoro-Graph code key:

h? Horse may not have been extended
h_pace Unusually fast pace
s_pace Unusually slow pace

We both were slightly right and slightly wrong.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:25 PM   #57
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TimeformUS adjusts their final figure based on early pace, both slow and fast (mostly based on 1st call). They also give the final figure before it is adjusted for pace.
Unless TimeformUS has changed it's formula, this not accurate.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:41 PM   #58
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Interesting discussion. I'm on the side that riding turf races like dirt races will lead to a lot of losing rides. Turf racing isn't new. Jockeys of course over do it at times but in general they are riding the right way.

Seems to me the kickback on dirt has a lot to do with this. Also, turf just isn't as tiring as dirt. Horses are rarely running as fast as they could have on turf. The races are far more tactical.
I agree with this.

The positional advantage of being near the front is often greater than the energy consumed by going faster early. Deeper closers are also typically tired at the end of dirt races despite going slower early and can't make up the difference unless the race falls apart.

On turf, almost everyone is full of run at the end. If you come from behind, it may not be easy to make up the ground on the fresh horses in front of you, but if you are the better horse you can often do it because you are still loaded with energy.
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Old 12-11-2018, 08:54 AM   #59
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Unless TimeformUS has changed it's formula, this not accurate.
cj has changed his formula based on on his discovery that the first call is more important than the traditional 2nd call as a result of the thread I began on pace patterns.
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Old 12-11-2018, 09:18 AM   #60
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cj has changed his formula based on on his discovery that the first call is more important than the traditional 2nd call as a result of the thread I began on pace patterns.
Nothing has been changed at this time. Doing some testing and if any changes are implemented it will be Jan 1.
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