Trump signs tariffs

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Three or four rate hikes have been baked into the cake for months. Notwithstanding your sarcasm, you are correct in that it had very little effect.

My pricing at work was largely unaffected by the rate announcement. I'm expecting an improvement today though as demand for debt goes up a bit with the announcement yesterday.

[reckless]

The ridiculous GOP omnibus bill had more to do with the yuuuge market drop than anything else.

But when you add in the incorrect and stupid decision by new Fed Chief Powell to raise rates, plus signalling more rate hikes to come, it was easy for the market to sell off bigtime.

We have had signs of a slowing economy now for months which is tipped by the flattening yield curve yet no Fed talking head mentioned this previously, at least I haven't heard any Fed warnings of late.

The Fed's decision to raise rates is a warning that they are simply clueless about the economy as usual.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Three or four rate hikes have been baked into the cake for months. Notwithstanding your sarcasm, you are correct in that it had very little effect.

I was watching the futures market in real time when the announcement came out...some very WIDE swings in the minutes after the announcement, including a 200 point Dow-equivalent swing within the first 5 minutes, which doesn't sound like a totally expected announcement to me...

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I was watching the futures market in real time when the announcement came out...some very WIDE swings in the minutes after the announcement, including a 200 point Dow-equivalent swing within the first 5 minutes, which doesn't sound like a totally expected announcement to me...

The rate hikes, China tariff announcement (which if you actually read it is pretty watered down), and looming shutdown with veto threat will create some more volatility.

I'm locking up a bunch of my stuff this morning instead of floating.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

So we place tariffs on steel imports but then offer exemptions to our leading importers...

No, my friend, this is an optics victory for the #Maga crowd that likely does nothing.

A few weeks ago, Trump held a meeting at the WH with mainly steel execs. During the meeting, he impulsively announced a 25% tariff on steel imports* (he also announced a tariff on aluminum, too, but let's focus on steel). There will be NO exemptions, he thundered. None! What about Canada? No!

Fast forward a few days, well maybe we will exempt Canada and Mexico. Earlier this week, well maybe we will exempt 30+ countries. Why the change in heart? Is it possible, just possible, that Trump thought the US imported a ton of steel from China,** then he found out that wasn't the case? I think it is, just another example of his visceral ignorance on display for all.

*The Commerce Dept had produced a fairly comprehensive report on this matter (Section 232), which was released prior to this meeting. Did Trump read it? Hah. It didn't contain any pictures. I'm sure his aides briefed him on the matter at a very high level, as one of the report's options was a 24% tariff on steel.

**China is the largest producer of steel in the world, and at times has dumped steel in the US via Vietnam. This issue was addressed months ago, and it was working.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by reckless

The ridiculous GOP omnibus bill had more to do with the yuuuge market drop than anything else.

But when you add in the incorrect and stupid decision by new Fed Chief Powell to raise rates, plus signalling more rate hikes to come, it was easy for the market to sell off bigtime.

We have had signs of a slowing economy now for months which is tipped by the flattening yield curve yet no Fed talking head mentioned this previously, at least I haven't heard any Fed warnings of late.

The Fed's decision to raise rates is a warning that they are simply clueless about the economy as usual.

Fed officials have certainly talked about the yield curve. Do a few Google searches. I see you're positioning yourself to blame the Fed for any slowdown. Love it.

[Inner Dirt]

Everybody seems to be screaming all steel and aluminum prices will go up whether they are from tariffed countries or not and also that suppliers will raise prices immediately even before they receive tariffed goods.

Small sample but I just called today to place an order for some steel that I was quoted $6 for 12 foot lengths on 2-8-18. Today's price for the same quantity was $5.55 each, from the same supplier and the same mill.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by reckless

The ridiculous GOP omnibus bill had more to do with the yuuuge market drop than anything else.

But when you add in the incorrect and stupid decision by new Fed Chief Powell to raise rates, plus signalling more rate hikes to come, it was easy for the market to sell off bigtime.

We have had signs of a slowing economy now for months which is tipped by the flattening yield curve yet no Fed talking head mentioned this previously, at least I haven't heard any Fed warnings of late.

The Fed's decision to raise rates is a warning that they are simply clueless about the economy as usual.

More empty bluster...can we fault "The Deep State?"

"Update:

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

Source: wapo.com

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

More empty bluster...can we fault "The Deep State?"

"Update:

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

Source: wapo.com

No doubt he changed his mind after he read it to see what was in it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, that little thing about raising interest rates yesterday probably had nothing to do with the drop at all...

Rising rates are almost always the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I've been arguing for a couple of years that stocks are overpriced, that it was likely the end of this cycle would coincide with Trump being president, and the pinheads in the media would use that as an attack against him. He will get all the blame even though almost all the excesses and bad Fed and fiscal policy (negative real rates, QE, trillions of new debt) occurred under Obama.

I would say the odds of me being right are getting higher.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Fed officials have certainly talked about the yield curve. Do a few Google searches. I see you're positioning yourself to blame the Fed for any slowdown. Love it.

Fed officials? I have heard many Wall Street analysts say such a thing, but not many 'Fed officials', I assure you. I do not need any Google searches but it's possible that maybe some have said so Mike.

Positioning myself?? For what?

You've become another nitwit that was totally wrong from 2015 to now on a myriad of issues... so you must save some face and have become a snark.

I am not positioning myself for anything -- I have been correctly ahead of all you second guessers for years now and I am willing to bet I'll do so in future as well.

Jesus effing christ... this place has become a joke. Sorry.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by reckless

I am not positioning myself for anything -- I have been correctly ahead of all you second guessers for years now and I am willing to bet I'll do so in future as well.

So what's your view on markets?

[reckless]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

So what's your view on markets?

The market will swing big both up and down until late summer, then drop precipitously -- just in time for the GOP to suffer a bloodbath in the November elections.

There will absolutely no reason to support the GOP as of today. They were on shaky ground anyway, and this budget bill will is the final dagger in the GOP.

Trump surrendered today and a 3% unemployment rate along with a 30,000 Dow Jones won't save him, the GOP or the country.

The GOP and Trump blew the opportunity of a lifetime today.

Too bad you didn't ask me what I thought on 11-3-16 when the Dow was 17,500 or so when I made the call of the Century. You could have made a ton on money. It is all right there in the Financial Room of OT.

Ah c'est le vie ... this has become a place of second guessers truth be told, and the fun is gone, sad to say.

I don't mean you, btw. Not by any means.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

More empty bluster...can we fault "The Deep State?"

"Update:

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

Source: wapo.com

Empty bluster? 'The Deep State' ... child, I said the Fed made a mistake in raising rates with a yield curve inverting.

You say that's empty bluster? 'Deep State' -- I never said a word along those lines.

If you wanna be a snark you need to know what you say -- and what you post. Beginning in the historic summer of 2015, you've proved to be clueless on a myriad of issues. As of now, you still are clueless ... and a snark.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Just hours after threatening a veto, President Trump appeared set to back down and sign a sweeping $1.3 trillion spending bill passed by Congress early Friday and avoid a government shutdown, according to senior legislative aides."

That is either a weak rationalization or a display of ignorance on the part of the administration.

If Trump vetoed the bill, Congress would have to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded and go back to work writing another budget bill. They wouldn't be able to take their 2 week break that starts today.

This is not exactly rare, nor is it rocket science. Congress has already passed 4 or 5 such continuing resolutions in fiscal 2018 because of an inability to pass a budget.