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View Poll Results: Who wins HOY? Accelerate or Justify?
Accelerate wins HOY 119 42.35%
Justify wins HOY 162 57.65%
Voters: 281. This poll is closed

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Old 12-12-2018, 02:12 PM   #166
aaron
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Probably, as the division had actual competition. This year did not IMO. The "G1" group of older males was as bad or worse than the 3yo group.
With,that one statement, we have the state of racing in 2018.
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:31 PM   #167
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The award started a year after his 3 year old season, would have been tough to win it. facts matter!
True, but the award was given retrospectively and the other previous TC winners were honored with the award. This honor was not extended to Omaha. He is the only exception though since Discovery was awarded that year.
Whether or not a person thinks Justify is deserving he should walk away with the Eclipse.
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:59 PM   #168
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I would argue there has never been a 3 year old or female horse who as stated had a campaign "competed in open races to all comers"
Are you forgetting BC Classic winner American Pharoah. I believe that was open to all comers and included the best horses in racing. That was the culminating part of AP's campaign.
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Old 12-12-2018, 03:28 PM   #169
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Are you forgetting BC Classic winner American Pharoah. I believe that was open to all comers and included the best horses in racing. That was the culminating part of AP's campaign.
that was 1 race, so one race is competing in races for all comers? He raced in restricted races all year long till the end.
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Old 12-12-2018, 03:52 PM   #170
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Probably, as the division had actual competition. This year did not IMO. The "G1" group of older males was as bad or worse than the 3yo group.
The actual competition kept on losing to Accelerate. Whereas in those years you mentioned they took turns beating each other and left it open for the 3 year old.

Accelerate beat stakes winners. He beat Pavel. He beat Mubtahij. He beat City of Light. They might have each won some more if Accelerate wasn't around to beat them.
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Old 12-12-2018, 04:00 PM   #171
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The actual competition kept on losing to Accelerate. Whereas in those years you mentioned they took turns beating each other and left it open for the 3 year old.

Accelerate beat stakes winners. He beat Pavel. He beat Mubtahij. He beat City of Light. They might have each won some more if Accelerate wasn't around to beat them.
True, but as a speed figure guy I know they weren't very good. Justify was very good compared to other winners of the races.

Also, if beating stakes winners is a measure, Justify beat a slew of them.

Last edited by cj; 12-12-2018 at 04:02 PM.
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Old 12-12-2018, 06:09 PM   #172
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True, but as a speed figure guy I know they weren't very good. Justify was very good compared to other winners of the races.

Also, if beating stakes winners is a measure, Justify beat a slew of them.
If your figures gave Justify big numbers I can't argue that obviously. I do know that Justify's Beyers for the TC were pretty ordinary. Put Accelerate in the Preakness and he wins by a distance.
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:18 PM   #173
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If your figures gave Justify big numbers I can't argue that obviously. I do know that Justify's Beyers for the TC were pretty ordinary. Put Accelerate in the Preakness and he wins by a distance.
I should hope so as a fully matured 5yo.
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:18 PM   #174
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I should hope so as a fully matured 5yo.
Right, horses get better as they mature. That's why more mature horses like Accelerate are better candidates for HOY. That's also a good incentive to keep horses racing longer. Reward those that stick around long enough to show their best when fully mature and build a fan base.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:03 PM   #175
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Right, horses get better as they mature. That's why more mature horses like Accelerate are better candidates for HOY. That's also a good incentive to keep horses racing longer. Reward those that stick around long enough to show their best when fully mature and build a fan base.
I hear that fan base argument all the time, but did it really help with horses like Zenyatta and California Chrome? I'd also argue that nobody was showing up to the racetrack this year specifically to see Accelerate. Horses today don't race often enough for that.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:15 PM   #176
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Are you forgetting BC Classic winner American Pharoah. I believe that was open to all comers and included the best horses in racing. That was the culminating part of AP's campaign.
Secretariat, after the TC.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:27 PM   #177
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I hear that fan base argument all the time, but did it really help with horses like Zenyatta and California Chrome? I'd also argue that nobody was showing up to the racetrack this year specifically to see Accelerate. Horses today don't race often enough for that.
I agree, if HOTY is about popularity, Justify wins.

The problem is a lot of us think it is about achievement and winning the races that draw the fastest horses.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:46 PM   #178
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I agree, if HOTY is about popularity, Justify wins.

The problem is a lot of us think it is about achievement and winning the races that draw the fastest horses.
That wasn't the point I was making, just responding to a post. I wouldn't say those older horse races in Cali drew fast horses this year. Just one really.
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Old 12-12-2018, 11:59 PM   #179
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No horse with Justify's record would ever beat a horse with Accelerate's, except for the fact that Justify's 6 wins against 3 year olds include three specific races.
Interesting spin. Numbers for Justify but none for Accelerate.

Justify, as you said, started (and won) 6 times in a 5 month stretch including 3 major stakes at classic distances.

Accelerate started 7 times (i.e., once more than Justify, same number of wins) in an 11 month stretch including 4 major stakes at classic distances.

Who had the more difficult campaign?
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Old 12-13-2018, 12:07 AM   #180
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Interesting spin. Numbers for Justify but none for Accelerate.

Justify, as you said, started (and won) 6 times in a 5 month stretch including 3 major stakes at classic distances.

Accelerate started 7 times (i.e., once more than Justify, same number of wins) in an 11 month stretch including 4 major stakes at classic distances.

Who had the more difficult campaign?
I was impressed by D. Wayne Lukas's argument...where he explained that Justify had the more difficult campaign, because the Triple Crown races were already pre-scheduled...whereas Accelerate's races were plan-as-you-go affairs...where scheduling alterations could easily be made to better suit the horse.

But Lukas then goes on to predict that Justify would have beaten Accelerate in the BC Classic...so he loses whatever credit his prior argument had garnered.
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Last edited by thaskalos; 12-13-2018 at 12:11 AM.
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