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05-04-2018, 07:26 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 946
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Handicapping this Derby was not arduous. Doesn’t mean I got it correct, but two factors suggested this a year to study lite. It won’t be known until late Saturday, but Justify’s races to date suggest he could be another Big Brown; i.e., a horse whose talent towers over the field. His past performances and figures to date are almost exact to BB. Another Big Brown? Either he is or he isn’t. That makes him 50-50 to win, and a generous overlay to use on top.
The other factor is the trend of horses who raced in the previous year’s Breeders Cup to underperform. In the last ten years, six of the Derby trifectas have been completed by horses who didn’t participate in the BC; five of the superfectas, also. Banking on this trend allows me to toss three of the top six horses and five other entrants as well. The bet:
$2.00 Tri: 7 / 3,5,9,12,16,18,19 / 3,5,9,12,16,18,19 $84
$1.00 Tri: 7 / 5,9,16,18 / 5,9,16,18 $12
$2.00 Tri: 7 / 5 / 16 $2
$1.00 Tri: 7 / 16 / 5 $1
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05-04-2018, 08:17 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 31
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05-04-2018, 09:00 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 252
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I’m not good enough to cap a race like this, so I’ll make a simple play and see what happens...
$100 win
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05-04-2018, 10:02 PM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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$1 DD
Race 12 2-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-14-16-17-18-19-20/ Race 13 1-3-5-6-7-8-9-11
$98 dollar ticket
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05-04-2018, 11:34 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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$25 exacta 7/15,20
$25 exacta 5/15,20
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05-04-2018, 11:54 PM
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#66
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver Canada
Posts: 3,204
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05-05-2018, 12:08 AM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,281
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$1 Superfecta
5,7 // 5,7,16,20 // 5,6,7,16,20 // 5,6,7,10,11,14,16,20 ($90.00)
$5 Ex Box
5,20 ($10.00)
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05-05-2018, 01:01 AM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Folsom, CA
Posts: 3,513
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05-05-2018, 01:31 AM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Christmas is coming early for everyone here on the forum as I share my vast horse racing wisdom with all of you and give you a ticket you can cash ...
.20 superfecta for a total $96 bet
1-
2-
3- ALL ( except for Firenze Fire and Promises Fulfilled )
4- ALL ( except for Firenze Fire and Promises Fulfilled )
$2 Trifecta for a total $4 bet
1-
2-
3-
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Boy that's it for as much wind you put into the Derby hatred sails! I thought you was confident brother!
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05-05-2018, 01:36 AM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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I'm going over $20.
$60 win
$10 boxes w
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05-05-2018, 01:57 AM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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__________________
Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 05-05-2018 at 01:58 AM.
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05-05-2018, 02:02 AM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
I'm going over $20.
$60 win
$10 boxes w
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Add another $10 box . Forgot about my boy Mendelssohn. All these boxes will end up even payoff denominations. Feeling good about it. If you win I'll be the first one congratulating you. Winning attitude win or lose=real player!
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05-05-2018, 02:07 AM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
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I got smoked today on my P3-4 tickets and they were brilliant! The Edgewood crushed me! Am going to dip in again and hedge in this race. Will play a more streamlined tri. Thask I am almost feeling empty betting to win. I had the 6-1 in the sprint today but felt lost without an exotic attached! Anyway let's kill it tomorrow!
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05-05-2018, 07:29 AM
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#74
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,034
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05-05-2018, 07:32 AM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,011
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