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10-28-2018, 06:54 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
YES, IT IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. CHART IS NOT ACCURATE. THERE IS PROFIT BUT NOT THAT MUCH.
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Yes, but that is without handicapping. Do a little good handicapping and the profits would increase.
BTW, what are the win and place % for the top 3 or 4
Last edited by bobphilo; 10-28-2018 at 07:00 AM.
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10-28-2018, 09:46 AM
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#17
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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CAN USE A LEG UP HERE
I HAVE THOUSANDS OF EXCELL FILLES I WANT TO USE TO UPDATE 1 EXCELL FILE.
ONCE INSIDE OF THAT SINGULAR FILE I’M QUITE GOOD AND MANUPILATING DATA.
I NEED TO AUTOMATICALLY READ FILES FROM A DIRECTORY, CAPTURE PREDEFINED CELLS, THEN ONPEN AND APPEND THE SINGULAR FILE.
YEARS AGO, I WAS ABLE TO DO SIMILAR WORK USING DBASE5.
PERHAPS SOMEONE CAN GIVE ME DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO DO THIS, OR, EVEN WRITE THE CODE
THANKS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-28-2018, 10:04 AM
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#18
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
Yes, but that is without handicapping. Do a little good handicapping and the profits would increase.
BTW, what are the win and place % for the top 3 or 4
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I DON'T HAVE THE PLACE PERCENTAGES
IN 289 RACES, THE 2ND RANK WON 21%, THE 3RD, 13%
MY 2ND RANK WON 44%, THE 3RD WON 20%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-28-2018, 07:01 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
I DON'T HAVE THE PLACE PERCENTAGES
IN 289 RACES, THE 2ND RANK WON 21%, THE 3RD, 13%
MY 2ND RANK WON 44%, THE 3RD WON 20%
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Thanx
I see 2 different sets of data. I'm assuming the top set is the public ranking and the bottom one is based on your ranking method? The bottom set is a big improvement. What method are you using to get such impressive results?
If I'm not being too much of a pain, do you also have the win % for the 1st and 4th ranked horses?
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10-29-2018, 12:10 PM
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#20
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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NO PROBLEM
ALL 1ST RANK HORSES WON 29%
ALL 4TH RANKED 8%
I HAVE NOT INCLUDED MY WIN% FOR THESE RACE, SIMPLY BECAUSE I HAVE YET TO FINALIZE THEM
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-29-2018, 08:37 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
NO PROBLEM
ALL 1ST RANK HORSES WON 29%
ALL 4TH RANKED 8%
I HAVE NOT INCLUDED MY WIN% FOR THESE RACE, SIMPLY BECAUSE I HAVE YET TO FINALIZE THEM
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Thanx again. A bit surprised that the win % for 1st ranked favorites is only 29% when most studies seem to indicate it's 33 to 35%. Must be related to sample size (?)
Without giving out any trade secrets, is there anything you can say about your basis for rating and ranking horses? It definitely is better than the public choices for 2nd and 3rd public ranked horses, which are already pretty accurate, though not profitable.
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10-29-2018, 09:53 PM
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#22
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
Thanx again. A bit surprised that the win % for 1st ranked favorites is only 29% when most studies seem to indicate it's 33 to 35%. Must be related to sample size (?)
Without giving out any trade secrets, is there anything you can say about your basis for rating and ranking horses? It definitely is better than the public choices for 2nd and 3rd public ranked horses, which are already pretty accurate, though not profitable.
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too small a sample, but hopeful
to truly determine how many favorites or any other ranked horse should win you need to sum
(1/(odds+1))/booking percentage
example
2-1 odds, 1.21 booking percentage
(1/3)/1.21 = 27 win %
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-30-2018, 07:56 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
too small a sample, but hopeful
to truly determine how many favorites or any other ranked horse should win you need to sum
(1/(odds+1))/booking percentage
example
2-1 odds, 1.21 booking percentage
(1/3)/1.21 = 27 win %
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I see. Just a few questions.
By odds do you mean the public odds at post time or morning line?
What is the booking percentage and how calculated?
How does it differ from the public odds?
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10-30-2018, 10:21 AM
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#24
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
I see. Just a few questions.
By odds do you mean the public odds at post time or morning line?
What is the booking percentage and how calculated?
How does it differ from the public odds?
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I MEAN THE FINAL ODDS
TO CALCULATE THE BOOKING %, SUM 1/(ODDS+1)
FOR EVERY HORSE IN THE RACE (ENTRIES COUNT AS ONE HORSE)
AT TRACK LIKE BELMONT, THAT SHOULD SUM TO ABOUT 1.176
1/1.176 =.85
1-.85 = .15, THE TRACK TAKEOUT
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-30-2018, 12:58 PM
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#25
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
CAN USE A LEG UP HERE
I HAVE THOUSANDS OF EXCELL FILLES I WANT TO USE TO UPDATE 1 EXCELL FILE.
ONCE INSIDE OF THAT SINGULAR FILE I’M QUITE GOOD AND MANUPILATING DATA.
I NEED TO AUTOMATICALLY READ FILES FROM A DIRECTORY, CAPTURE PREDEFINED CELLS, THEN ONPEN AND APPEND THE SINGULAR FILE.
YEARS AGO, I WAS ABLE TO DO SIMILAR WORK USING DBASE5.
PERHAPS SOMEONE CAN GIVE ME DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO DO THIS, OR, EVEN WRITE THE CODE
THANKS
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I may be able to help. I can do VBA with MS Access. It can read in multiple excel files and spit out a large one. However, you would need MS Excel 2010 or later, running on your computer because it uses the MS Excel 14.0 Object library. You wouldn't need MS Access 2010 because you can download the free runtime version, but if you wanted to make code changes on your own you would need the full Office 2010 or later.
PM me if you want my assistance.
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