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Old 12-17-2002, 02:10 AM   #1
rrbauer
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Tampa Bay Downs Tuesday 12/17

Tampa Bay Downs Tuesday December 17
Before changes/scratches

R1
Tactical Mover is the only one here that has run my power par multiple times
and she drops again. No speed hurts. Amunited is the speed but has half-mileitis.
That leaves the firster Expect Roses as the one to beat. You won't get 15-1 though.
R2
Diablo's Donna looks like the one to beat. Time To Di could move up off
the last race. Longshot trainer.
R3
Too many question marks here. I could risk a few bob on Catch'Em All at a price.
R4
I'm inclined to go with the ML fav Portal . Watch out for the outside guy
Western Premier . Nice pattern for a 3YO and in good hands.
I'd be shocked if he's more than 5-1.
R5
Tough heat. I'm leaning towards the honest 7YO gelding, Call Fiorello coming off
the rest and runs well fresh.
R6
John The Broker will get the lead and runs well fresh. I agree with Mr. ML Maker
on the other two. Enough Already is praying for rain and Proud Of Pyrite
is a 3YO that is learning what it's all about. Box 'em up to cash.
R7
Moonshine Mary looks the best of a weak bunch for MSW types.
R8
Core Idea is an old-timer that likes 7f and likes TAM and runs well fresh. 5-1? Nah!
R9
All kinds of speed in here. Looks like it could set up for the #1 Blues Away .
R10
Yeah, I know who Awesome Of Course ran against, but I think that Battle Tank
is better. And, I'm looking at a couple prices in here too: Ballonenostrikes and Flip And Stu .
R11
I guess the outside posts on this 1M layout are death, so even if Marquet Niche or All My Yesterdays draw in, they'll be up against it.
That leaves the fav Respectable Gal at what figures to be a downright unrespectable price.

Go Baby Go
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Old 12-17-2002, 12:23 PM   #2
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Changes

The Main Track condition is now: FAST

The Turf Track condition is now: OFF TURF

The weather at the Track is now: PT CLOUDY, 60'S


Race: 1
There are no changes at this time

Race: 2
4 DIABLO'S DONNA Jockey will be Ricardo Feliciano
5 MYSTICAL WONDER Will run 2 lbs overweight

Race: 3
9 FIRE THE FIRM Will run 2 lbs overweight

Race: 4
1 JUGAL Jockey will be Robert Messina
Will run 2 lbs overweight
5 M D'S MOONDANCER Will run 1 lb overweight
6 COSMIC SEA Jockey will be Danush Sukie
7 JOLLY GOOD FELLOW Jockey will be K Austin
Will run 1 lb overweight

Race: 5
4 CALL FIORELLO Has been scratched
5 TRUE STORM Jockey will be Juan Umana

Race: 6
1 PAGE HUNTING Will run 2 lbs overweight
3 ENOUGH ALREADY Weight is now 118 lbs
7 JOHN'S RUN Jockey will be Jose Delgado

Race: 7
5 JENNASLILPRINCESS Jockey will be Terry Warner
6 MADDIE K Has been scratched
13 TORY'S TUNE Will run
14 RED SHERRY Has been scratched

Race: 8
11 CONCIELO Has been scratched
12 EL CITADOR Has been scratched
13 PLAY FOR SARATOGA Has been scratched

Race: 9
There are no changes at this time

Race: 10
3 FLIP AND STU Has been scratched
6 JETTIN'FOR ROOBELS Weight is now 113 lbs
8 PENTHOUSE PROMISE Jockey will be Derek Bell
10 LADY GREYSTOKE Jockey will be Luis Garcia
Will run 1 lb overweight

Race: 11
This race will use the Main Track and be run over 1M
The track condition is now FAST
10 JENNASLOLLIPOP Has been scratched
11 MARQUET NICHE Will run
12 CHRISTINA'S HOPE Has been scratched
13 SI SI MY LOVE Has been scratched
14 ALL MY YESTERDAYS Has been scratched
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Old 12-17-2002, 02:27 PM   #3
Amazin
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What an outside bias.Five races.Three won by #9,two won by #8.Bombs away.
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Old 12-17-2002, 05:25 PM   #4
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Damage

R1
Tactical Mover is the only one here that has run my power par multiple times
and she drops again. No speed hurts. Amunited is the speed but has half-mileitis.
That leaves the firster Expect Roses as the one to beat. You won't get 15-1 though.
Result: Amunited (5/2)popped, cleared and crossed. Firster ’Roses bet down to 5/2 co-favorite, picked up the chase, and made the golden move on the turn, but Judice got Amunited to change leads and kick clear to hold ‘Roses off by a length. Bets: Kicked off $8 DD’s to Diablo’s Donna and $4 DD’s to Time To Di from the two mentioned plus ‘Mover.
-36 DD’s with two live tickets.

R2
Diablo's Donna looks like the one to beat. Time To Di could move up off
the last race. Longshot trainer.
Result: Diablo’s Donna (3-1) did all the dirty work but Our Legend (6-1) made a late outside charge and got the lead nearing the wire to win clear. Dead doubles!

R3
Too many question marks here. I could risk a few bob on Catch'Em All at a price.
Result: Fire The Firm (2-1) tracked wide and took over into the stretch striding out to win by many. The cripple, Bee Eight, (9/5) took them to the 3/8th pole and then caved in. Catch’Em All (10-1) caught half of them and finished 5th. I watched!

R4
I'm inclined to go with the ML fav Portal . Watch out for the outside guy
Western Premier . Nice pattern for a 3YO and in good hands.
I'd be shocked if he's more than 5-1.
Result: Cosmic Sea & Jugal made the running. ‘Sea got clear in the stretch but was run down late by Chin Chin . ’Premier (9/2)lagged early, made a wide belated move into the stretch and “hung” J Portal (2-1) ran inside, mid-pack and faded late. I did a $4 X-box on the two picks. –8.

R5
Tough heat. I'm leaning towards the honest 7YO gelding, Call Fiorello, coming off
the rest and runs well fresh.
Result: ‘Fiorello was scratched. Too early for a beer run. Guess I’ll do a non-beer run! Oh! Jet Legacy along late on the outside to beat out Tri M All. No blood!

R6
John The Broker will get the lead and runs well fresh. I agree with Mr. ML Maker
on the other two. Enough Already is praying for rain and Proud Of Pyrite
is a 3YO that is learning what it's all about. Box 'em up to cash.
Result: John The Broker overcame a couple bumps and got out to the lead and was clear into the stretch. Good thing, Walnut Slew, (opened at 1-1, off at 6) ran them down late. ’Pyrite & ‘Already never got close. I $2-boxed them up and lost $16! (Double-dipped on the 2/3)

R7
Moonshine Mary looks the best of a weak bunch for MSW types.
Result ‘Mary was 3rd as 3/2 fav. Couldn’t take 3/2 on anything on this race. Winner Speed Of Funny at 15-1 shook loose and won clear. No blood.

R8
Core Idea is an old-timer that likes 7f and likes TAM and runs well fresh. 5-1? Nah!
Result: Core Idea (7/2) vied for the lead between horses, got clear into the turn, and drew out. Paid $9 and $4.80 which gets me back $36 and $38 from my $8W $16P bet. +50 on the race. Yay!

R9
All kinds of speed in here. Looks like it could set up for the #1 Blues Away .
Result: Bombs er uh Blues Away! made the 4-wide move on the turn and nailed the pacesetter, Danielles Magic, in deep stretch and won clear. Problem is that he got jumped on late, so my $8W and $16P action only gets me about a $23 profit. Two in a row, look out Sufferin here I come!

R10
Yeah, I know who Awesome Of Course ran against, but I think that Battle Tank is better. And, I'm looking at a couple prices in here too: Ballonenostrikes and Flip And Stu .
Result: Flip And Stu was scratched. Hummel, Awesome, Run For You went out on the lead. ’You got a dream run thru at the rail, but Awesome prevailed by ½ length. ’Tank was never in the hunt (5th-broke in and bumped start) and at 6/5 wasn’t much of a bet. I did a $1-Tri with ‘Tank on top (to all the ones on the board!) plus one more. -$20.

R11
I guess the outside posts on this 1M layout are death, so even if Marquet Niche or All My Yesterdays draw in, they'll be up against it.
That leaves the fav Respectable Gal at what figures to be a downright unrespectable price.
Result Off the turf. 1 1/16th Mile on Dirt. I think that ’Gal went off at 4/5. I bet her in exactas with two others Holdmearound & Macon Dale $1 box and $5 with ‘Gal on top. Dance With Teddi (20-1) charged late to beat ‘Gal and ‘around in deep stretch. –16 on the exactas. I think it was about –26 for the day.

I’ll be in LV next Tuesday, so we’ll do Tampa Bay again in January.
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Old 12-17-2002, 05:29 PM   #5
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the outside bias at TAMPA today was a crime.. did'nt play a race there,, but... they should have delayed a race and ran the tractors over it a couple of times,, Never seen a bias play out so BADLY in my life.. If I owned a Horse that drew inside today... I'd be FURIOUS!!!
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Old 12-17-2002, 07:25 PM   #6
rrbauer
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I had two cold winners today.
#2 in Race 8 and #1 in Race 9! Go figure....

In the dirt sprints last year here's some info on how TB played:

5f (67 races)
E's & EP's won 76% of the races.
Post positions 4-7 had the highest hit rate.

5.5f (77 races)
E's and EP's won 72% of the races.
Post positions 4-7 had the highest hit rate.

6f (252 races)
E's and EP's won 64% of the races.
Post positions 4-7 had the highest hit rate.

7f (225 races)
E's and EP's won 53% P's won 28% S's won 19% (Hey it adds up!)
Post positions 4-7 had a slightly higher hit rate than pp's 1-3.

So, in general, an outside draw is preferred (but not too far outside--for example in today's 10th, Battle Tank (pp.13) ran the entire backstretch in about the 10-path and didn't drop in until the start of the turn)

Now on the turf at 1mile, 80 races.
P's and S's won 73% and PP's outside the 7-hole were death.
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