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08-03-2004, 09:55 AM
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#1
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Journeyman
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 75
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R.O.I.
i read in jim quinn's 2002 book that if you get 30% winners at 5/2 it equals a roi of 2% and if you increase it to 33% winners at 5/2 the roi goes up to 6%.
i did my own math and i don't think he's correct. but he is a professor at ucla?
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08-03-2004, 10:29 AM
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#2
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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edge= odds x win%-(1-win%)
2.50 X .30 -(1-.30) = 5% profit
I'm sure you know this, but I could not resist
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 08-03-2004 at 10:30 AM.
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08-03-2004, 10:56 AM
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#3
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Journeyman
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 75
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ROI?
i wonder how a professor (quinn) at ucla could be wrong?
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08-03-2004, 11:11 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 64
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Re: R.O.I.
i did my own math and i don't think he's correct. but he is a professor at ucla? [/B][/QUOTE]
It is true that the ROI tripples, but unless you are writing automated betting program, the point is to know just that and increase your WR to 35% @ 7/2 .. or something.
Wouldn't that be lovely..
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08-03-2004, 01:20 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: nyc
Posts: 309
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However,,,, However---------as Faster says: he's right in the general gist: You will more than triple your profits with just that slight improvement in win%.... you'll go from minimum 5%(5/2's a big range-- should be calculated at the halfway point between that and 3-1-- but that's besides the point) to mimimum 15.5 %!!!
At 35% the advantage is 22.5%.....
Last edited by charleslanger; 08-03-2004 at 01:24 PM.
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08-03-2004, 02:27 PM
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#6
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Database Nerd
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: 62nd St.
Posts: 183
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sometimes, 2% > 6%
That's only assuming you can increase your ROI without losing any plays, which is very difficult to do.
For example, I will always take the 2% ROI over 6% >IF< the 2% method provides 10 times more wageable opportunities.
PMD
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08-03-2004, 03:28 PM
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#7
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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I've changed my approach, more plays with a lesser ROI, and it is working quite nicely. The Pinnacle 7% rebate was the reason for this experiment, but even without the rebate, it has been a worthwhile change thus far.
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08-03-2004, 03:43 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 2,443
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CJ
What's the Pinnacle rebate??
fffastt
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08-03-2004, 03:50 PM
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#9
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Off shore book fast, every dollar you bet, you get credited 7 cents the next day.
pinnaclesports.com
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08-03-2004, 04:26 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,332
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I don't get it????
Quote:
Originally posted by pmd62ndst
That's only assuming you can increase your ROI without losing any plays, which is very difficult to do.
For example, I will always take the 2% ROI over 6% >IF< the 2% method provides 10 times more wageable opportunities.
PMD
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I don't understand what you are saying. If you bet $1,000,000 a year with a 2% ROI, you only make $20,000. You ever try to bet $1,000,000 a year-not an easy task I'm sure.
Now if you can make 6%, you only have to bet $500,000 and you make $30,000. Now you're making $10,000 more per year and only working 1/2 as much---hey, I'm all for cutting back on the work.
Now, if a fellow was smart enough and a little bit more selective in the tracks he played and the races he played, he might could get his ROI up to like maybe 15-20%. Now he could only bet $200,000 a year and he is putting between $30,000 to $40,000 in his freezer. Not great, but not too bad for part-time work.
Where am I going wrong?
JM
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08-03-2004, 04:35 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,332
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High Roller-Where'd you get "2%ROI"?
I snatched this from the Turfpedia.com site:
[QUOTE]
Here are the attainable goals for skillful handicappers:
Win% Aver. Odds Edge
30% 5-2 .05
33% 5-2 .15
35% 5-2 .22
40% 5-2 .40
The average odds are held constant at 5-2 because in reality they do not vary much on key horses to win.[END QUOTE]
JM
Last edited by JustMissed; 08-03-2004 at 04:37 PM.
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08-03-2004, 11:18 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 64
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by cjmilkowski
[B]I've changed my approach, more plays with a lesser ROI, and it is working quite nicely. The Pinnacle 7% rebate
This and previous writer's (pmd62ndst) preferred increase in "betting opportunities" puzzles me, when the same would mean an increase in already huge error margin in this business.
Pinnacle pays up seven 7% of anything so you could increase your amount bet, rather than betting more often and paying "take - like" amount each time.
Betting less often + more diligent research should give greater WR at higher odds.
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08-03-2004, 11:41 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 64
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Re: R.O.I.
Quote:
Originally posted by HIGH ROLLER
i read in jim quinn's 2002 book that if you get 30% winners at 5/2 it equals a roi of 2% and if you increase it to 33% winners at 5/2 the roi goes up to 6%.
i did my own math and i don't think he's correct. but he is a professor at ucla?
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It just dawned on me and without a proof of calculation, ucla prof is most probably adjusting for take. Any math people out there?
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08-04-2004, 12:54 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 1,572
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Quote:
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I've changed my approach, more plays with a lesser ROI, and it is working quite nicely. The Pinnacle 7% rebate was the reason for this experiment, but even without the rebate, it has been a worthwhile change thus far.
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Change can be very good sometimes.
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08-04-2004, 03:36 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: nyc
Posts: 309
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I agree with the lesser % when it adds significantly more plays--
bankroll speed--
assuming you're using something besides flat betting(anybody sticking to flat betting oughta be imprisoned / barred from betting), the compounding effect will be very powerful and net lots more profit... it may not seem significant in the beginning, but after a few months / end of the year the difference will be very noticeable--- and further, if this continues compounding over the years(assuming no monthly, much less yearly loss-- why rebates can be so helpful, but they must be re-invested just like stock dividends)... the accumulated amount will astound you-- of course, the other key is to never dip into it when in a tight spot-- to do whatever it takes to find needed funds elsewhere....
.
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