2013-14 NBA season

[cj]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Coming right back with another Bulls under, going under 190 1/2. Refs like to swallow the whistle: Boland 20 overs 34 unders since start of last season; Collins 35 overs 44 unders. Bulls 7 overs 13 unders L20 with no rest, Blazers 8 overs 11 unders 1 push L20 of 1st of 2 back to back.

Did the Bulls season end last night? (Kind of a tough beat on the under, though it was always going to be over before Rose was hurt)

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by cj

Did the Bulls season end last night? (Kind of a tough beat on the under, though it was always going to be over before Rose was hurt)

I don't think so. Torn meniscus; not an ACL. THey are saying he needs surgery and will be out 4-8 weeks. Knowing his history I would say 4 weeks is unlikely, but given how weak the East is, they could still be a 3 seed if he comes back in late January.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I don't think so. Torn meniscus; not an ACL. THey are saying he needs surgery and will be out 4-8 weeks. Knowing his history I would say 4 weeks is unlikely, but given how weak the East is, they could still be a 3 seed if he comes back in late January.

This is what Westbrook had. I think if they take it out, he'll be back sooner but it could shorten his career. If they repair it, it will take longer to get back. Westbrook is rusty still, but he hasn't lost any of his speed or quickness.

[Quagmire]

Rose out for the season.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story...n-knee-surgery

[Valuist]

Yeah, I just heard. So to re-answer CJ's question, yes it did end. The doctor I heard interviewed two days ago must've assumed they would try to remove the meniscus, which would be a quicker recovery. They opted to re-attach it, which is a much longer procedure to recover from, but it much better in the long run. Last year the Bulls were a solid, but unspectacular team, but they had a guy like Nate Robinson who could fill some of the scoring void. I consider Dunleavy a downgrade from Robinson. The East is weak, so they will still make the playoffs, but have zero chance of getting past the Heat or Pacers.

[cj]

If the surgery didn't, losing to Utah should. After watching that Jazz in person on Sunday night, that is almost inconceivable.

[Valuist]

I don't advocate betting Miami often, but when picking spots, there can be opportunities. Miami is laying a small number (3.5) to Detroit. Detroit beat them in Miami a week ago. Both teams played last night, and won easily. But Miami did it easier, as no starter logged over 32 minutes, and 3 reserves got 20 or more minutes. Despite the Pistons easy 17 point win over the Bulls last night, 4 of the 5 starters logged 35 minutes or more. Miami hasn't forgotten the 10 point loss to the Pistons a week ago, and this looks like a good spot to give Detroit a beating.

[Valuist]

An easy win and cover for the Heat last night. One game that interests me tonight is Golden State/Charlotte. Two contrasting styles. Charlotte is a dominant tempo team, going 1-11-1 to the under in their last 13 games. They just came off an under against the fast tempo Sixers. Charlotte now has gone 13 straight without giving up 100 points in a game. GS is clearly an uptempo team w/shaky D but improved considerably in their last. Not picking a side, but I think Charlotte will have a bigger impact on the tempo. Under 193.

[Valuist]

Think Cleveland may be in a good spot tonight. Portland is obviously more talented, but the Blazers are in a first of a B2B, with a divisional game Wed night in Minnesota. I expect the Blazers to be less than 100% focused tonight. The Cavs come in rested after having last played on Saturday; following the game they are off until Friday, with an easy spot being home vs the Bucks. Cavaliers have zero excuses tonight and should be focused. Whether or not they are good enough may be a different story but we'll take Cleve +5.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Think Cleveland may be in a good spot tonight. Portland is obviously more talented, but the Blazers are in a first of a B2B, with a divisional game Wed night in Minnesota. I expect the Blazers to be less than 100% focused tonight. The Cavs come in rested after having last played on Saturday; following the game they are off until Friday, with an easy spot being home vs the Bucks. Cavaliers have zero excuses tonight and should be focused. Whether or not they are good enough may be a different story but we'll take Cleve +5.

Hi Valuist,

Nice call last night, and 2-2. Do you beat the NBA long-term? I found it very tough going a couple years back, last time I played seriously. IMHO, like horseracing, it used to be much easier.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by lansdale

Hi Valuist,

Nice call last night, and 2-2. Do you beat the NBA long-term? I found it very tough going a couple years back, last time I played seriously. IMHO, like horseracing, it used to be much easier.

Cheers,

lansdale

Thx

I have but it is very time consuming. Almost all my plays are scheduling related, or work within a few angles I have. You will never hear me say "I believe team A is more talented than team B, so I will bet team A." Never. I know the linemaker will generally have all the talent factored in. But no team can go all-out for 82 games. Not the Jordan-Pippen Bulls, not the Shaq-Kobe Lakers or the Lebron-Wade Heat. Another recent example was Indiana the other day. They were playing Detroit Monday night but the game tonight against the Heat was where the Pacers' focus figured to be. Sure enough, Detroit won outright.

[BetHorses!]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Thx

I have but it is very time consuming. Almost all my plays are scheduling related, or work within a few angles I have. You will never hear me say "I believe team A is more talented than team B, so I will bet team A." Never. I know the linemaker will generally have all the talent factored in. But no team can go all-out for 82 games. Not the Jordan-Pippen Bulls, not the Shaq-Kobe Lakers or the Lebron-Wade Heat. Another recent example was Indiana the other day. They were playing Detroit Monday night but the game tonight against the Heat was where the Pacers' focus figured to be. Sure enough, Detroit won outright.

I had a guy who focused on what he referred to as "calandar games". He was very sharp, but in the end the NBA got him. Only a few guys beat it these days, the edge is not there imo.


Bulls back in the day without Jordan in the lineup is worth x points.

Fill in x

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by BetHorses!

I had a guy who focused on what he referred to as "calandar games". He was very sharp, but in the end the NBA got him. Only a few guys beat it these days, the edge is not there imo.


Bulls back in the day without Jordan in the lineup is worth x points.

Fill in x

I think totals are more beatable than sides, with the NBA. But there's opportunities with sides as well. But one has to be very selective. Rarely make more than two plays in a day.

[BetHorses!]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I think totals are more beatable than sides, with the NBA. But there's opportunities with sides as well. But one has to be very selective. Rarely make more than two plays in a day.

Agree about totals but limits are much lower. Its hard to quantify what these scheduling disadvantages are worth. Had a discussion other day about Jordan who imo is best player ever. When not in lineup what was it worth, 2.5- 3 pts to the line?

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by BetHorses!

Agree about totals but limits are much lower. Its hard to quantify what these scheduling disadvantages are worth. Had a discussion other day about Jordan who imo is best player ever. When not in lineup what was it worth, 2.5- 3 pts to the line?

I heard Jordan was worth 7 points. Shaq at his peak was around 6.5. Haven't heard on Lebron but he'd have to be close to 7.

Sportsinsights has a good database. Not real great for finding scheduling angles, but other angles. They still do exist, but have to do quite a bit of trial and error.