ProfitLine research

[racingfan378]

Hi all

I need some advice on my new project. I am going to keep detailed track on how profitline does and I would like some feedback on how to go about this.

First off I am waiting until the end of the day to printout the sheets from twinspires under the "tools" options so I can get the scratches factored in thus giving me a better oddsline.

We all know that the system cant handicap maiden races (per se, such as first time starters etc) so I plan to throw those out. I also plan to toss out races where a foreign horse is coming in for the first time

I want to get a true feel for ProfitLine minus those parameters and see how well they do with each track every month. It wont be a simple task, but one I am about to face.

Any other ideas on how to make this research project almost perfect on my end? Thanks and Happy New Year to all!

[guckers]

I agree that some race types, like maidens, may be more difficult to analyze, but without analyzing the data first, I wouldn't assume that the system can't handicap it. It is probably more inaccurate in determining the winners, but it could be more profitable; depending on your risk/money management and selection criteria. The profit line is all about value; would you take a maiden horse whose got a PL of 2 and is at 8? In any case, I think all race types are worth taking a look at.

In terms of advice for what to do. My first attempt would be at validating whether or not the profitline is a good measurement.

Good luck and hope to hear more.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by guckers

I agree that some race types, like maidens, may be more difficult to analyze, but without analyzing the data first, I wouldn't assume that the system can't handicap it. It is probably more inaccurate in determining the winners, but it could be more profitable; depending on your risk/money management and selection criteria. The profit line is all about value; would you take a maiden horse whose got a PL of 2 and is at 8? In any case, I think all race types are worth taking a look at.

In terms of advice for what to do. My first attempt would be at validating whether or not the profitline is a good measurement.

Good luck and hope to hear more.

How would you go about creating an oddsline for a race full of first-time starters?

[racingfan378]

Originally Posted by guckers

I agree that some race types, like maidens, may be more difficult to analyze, but without analyzing the data first, I wouldn't assume that the system can't handicap it. It is probably more inaccurate in determining the winners, but it could be more profitable; depending on your risk/money management and selection criteria. The profit line is all about value; would you take a maiden horse whose got a PL of 2 and is at 8? In any case, I think all race types are worth taking a look at.

In terms of advice for what to do. My first attempt would be at validating whether or not the profitline is a good measurement.

Good luck and hope to hear more.

My goal is not to find the overlay, but to see how well it does in regard to who they say is best.

Like Race 1 at GG Tuesday had 1,5,2,7 and it ran 1,7,2,5 with the $1 super over $100. Well if someone loved Baze and got a $10 super 1 with 2,5,7 they just spent $60 to cash $1k

Race 9 at AQU had the 7 2nd, the horse won at 6-1 which was an overlay. Maybe for a handicapping conest profitline would do ok but I am looking for how they do in general.

Race 6 at GG Baze was on a horse first time on grass at 5/2 ML but profitline had it 35-1. Needless to say, Baze won. So this is where I am trying to fine tune their results. A bunch of first time turf horses can produce any result and I dont want that figured into the mix.

Mr T. was right, how can you give profitline odds to a horse who is making their first lifetime start? You cant

[guckers]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How would you go about creating an oddsline for a race full of first-time starters?

I would stay away from a race that has numerous first time starters if I were only using profit lines.

[guckers]

Originally Posted by racingfan378

My goal is not to find the overlay, but to see how well it does in regard to who they say is best.

...

Mr T. was right, how can you give profitline odds to a horse who is making their first lifetime start? You cant

OK, got a better picture of what you're after then. It sounds like a lot of data collection. You'll probably want to have an understanding of other factors including track, distance, surface, conditions, age, sex, and other restrictions. I would see where the PL may fluctuate in accuracy among these dimensions.

You may also want to consider lengths behind and comments to be lenient in situations where many horses finish within a few lengths or if a horse encountered trouble during the race.

The challenge is the manual collection of all of this. Your analysis will have to be limited to what you can gather. I would nail down on couple of dimensions and see how well they compare to others... example: pick 3 tracks, routes, dirt, 3U, non-maidens... or something like that.