Prairie Meadows Race 9 wager on the trifecta should be investigated!!!

[ranchwest]

The 1 looked good early, the 3 fair early in a race full of speed. The 5 looked to be in position early with staying ability. The 4 looked late to pick off runners late. So, I don't find the results shocking, but it is a bit odd that the different pools aren't consistent. But in a $250,000 race at a small track, sometimes wagers are not consistent. The tri pool was almost double the super pool... sometimes big bettors don't like getting into the dime wagers because it is easy for a big score to get diluted.

[eldee wins]

Yes I see, but the 4 was the winner, he was a form play on these figures. Thanks for the info.

[Jeff P]

I wanted to revisit this.

Given pool size of $51,918, a $0.50 trifecta mutuel of $688.95, and trifecta takeout of 23.0%, my estimate for the number of winning $0.50 trifecta tickets is 58.

I estimate that a grand total of $29.00 was bet on the winning trifecta combination in this race - calculated as follows:


Amout Paid to Wining Ticket Holders:

AmountPaidOut = PoolSize x (1 - TakeoutRate)

or

AmountPaidOut = 51,918 x (1 - 0.23)

or

AmountPaidOut = 51,918 x 0.77

or

AmountPaidOut = 39,976

Number of Winning $0.50 Trifecta Tickets:

WinningTicketsCount = (AmountPaidOut/TrifectaMutuel)

or

WinningTicketsCount = (39,976/688.95)

or

WinningTicketsCount = 58

Total Amount Bet on the Winning Trifecta Combination:

AmtBetWinningCombo =  WinningTicketsCount x BaseWagerAmt

or

AmtBetWinningCombo =  58 x 0.50

or

AmtBetWinningCombo = $29.00

Based on the above, I'd guess the actual whales collectively bet about $20.00 on the winning combo.

From there I'd guess the remaining $9.00 was bet by smaller players sharp enough to see at least one of the three horses that made it into the tri as a 'key.'

But that's only a guess.

Here's what isn't a guess:

It only takes a few extra dollars to knock down an otherwise high paying exotics mutuel.


-jp
.

[lamboguy]

i have been watching the Massachusetts State daily numbers lottery for the past 40 years. in that timespan, I have never seen a night where the 4 digit number wasn't hit. there has always been a payoff for those exact 4 numbers.
knowing some big numbers bookmakers that probably did more action back in those days than the state did. i remember them telling me that sometimes they go weeks without getting hit on a 4 digit number. their 4 digit numbers were always derived from the track mutual payoffs. when you asked those guys why they just didn't use or book state lottery numbers, they believed that it was to easy to fix.

getting back to Prairie Meadows trifecta payoffs. i am not 100 percent certain, only 99 percent that this outcome was done one of two different ways. the first way and most probably would be that these combinations were not covered late into the betting cycle before the race started and more than one computer picked up on it at the same time and automatically covered the combinations that were not covered. the other way could be that someone or a few someones were able to get into the pools and steal the money out in broad daylight at some point after the starting bell rang.

when you look at payoffs in these blind pools, most seem to be quite light, so I personally stay away from them knowing that I am a terrible handicapper and don't need more of a disadvantage. also I am seeing low payoffs in place and show pools in places like Monmouth, Parx, Gulfstream and Maryland tracks. for some reason, the payoffs being produced in place and show pools at Kentucky tracks have been great. come to think of it, their blind pools aren't terrible either.

[davew]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If this was a game where integrity mattered, there would surely be an investigation and some reasonable explanation given for this scandalously low trifecta payoff. But since this is horse racing...no one of "authority" will give this a second thought.

... or say that is what happens sometimes with parimutual

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by davew

... or say that is what happens sometimes with parimutual

You knew someone like Jeff would be along to deliver that message. Gee, it only takes a few dollars to knock down the payoff? What a revelation, who knew? Thank God the industry has guys like him to protect it.

[cj]

Originally Posted by castaway01

You knew someone like Jeff would be along to deliver that message. Gee, it only takes a few dollars to knock down the payoff? What a revelation, who knew? Thank God the industry has guys like him to protect it.

You need to chill.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by castaway01

You knew someone like Jeff would be along to deliver that message. Gee, it only takes a few dollars to knock down the payoff? What a revelation, who knew? Thank God the industry has guys like him to protect it.

I think that’s a stretch

[AskinHaskin]

Or maybe... some sharpshooter just envisioned a repeat of the Riley Allison Derby finish and happened to be playing the tri and not the exacta or super.

The running lines are very near to a repeat.



Three in the field wore blinkers, they ran one-two-three.


You guys sound like the clueless owner/breeder in Kentucky who took out an ad in the form in the weeks after the Fix Six scandal and included in it:

"... (anybody who begins a pick N ticket {where N > 3, I guess} with single-single... should be investigated) ..."

(making no mention or stipulation about whether the approach {or any of the singles, for that matter} won, or not)