Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[Denny]

Pari-mutuel Wagering.

That's the problem at the heart of it all when you get down to it.
(It's also why Takeout is so high.)

Please legalize the Exchange everywhere at a fair price.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Lafecs

What if the roles were reversed? What if you shut the bots out at 2 MTP, then let the public wager until the gates open. How well would that work out for them?

The difference is that the public isn't currently being unfairly shut out. All of us have the technology, if we want, to place large # of wagers as late as possible. There's rule or obstruction which allows large players to get late bets in while the rest of the public cannot

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

The difference is that the public isn't currently being unfairly shut out.

Not true. The public is being unfairly shut out (or shut off, I should say), from the knowledge of nearly 40% or more of the wagering pool that is coming their way at a point in time when they have no chance to react to this information...unlike the few major players who are the source of this late money, who know exactly what the odds will be after their money works its way into the pools.

It's a great little scheme they have going...surprised it took them this long to make it happen.

They have created their own private BetFair...they ARE getting fixed odds essentially.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

The difference is that the public isn't currently being unfairly shut out. All of us have the technology, if we want, to place large # of wagers as late as possible. There's rule or obstruction which allows large players to get late bets in while the rest of the public cannot

And that is supposed to be good for the game?

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Tom

And that is supposed to be good for the game?

Meant to say there's *no* rule or obstruction that prevents, my bad.

Whether batch wagering is good for the game or not, I've not given it any thought

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Not true. The public is being unfairly shut out (or shut off, I should say), from the knowledge of nearly 40% or more of the wagering pool that is coming their way at a point in time when they have no chance to react to this information...unlike the few major players who are the source of this late money, who know exactly what the odds will be after their money works its way into the pools.

It's a great little scheme they have going...surprised it took them this long to make it happen.

They have created their own private BetFair...they ARE getting fixed odds essentially.

Only if you think it's because odds aren't updated in real time. But that's not really unfair, as we're all subject to it. I coudl be wrong, but I don't think a large betting team will know instantly when another team has dropped 40% into the pool. They're at the mercy of the slow update as well, though as Dave has said, they might have a slight advantage here

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Only if you think it's because odds aren't updated in real time. But that's not really unfair, as we're all subject to it. I coudl be wrong, but I don't think a large betting team will know instantly when another team has dropped 40% into the pool. They're at the mercy of the slow update as well, though as Dave has said, they might have a slight advantage here

The few large teams operating out there are affecting the pools tremendously simply because they are betting some serious, serious money. Can we at least agree on that, since it's becoming obvious you won't agree with anyone on anything.

Thus, they will come the closest to knowing what the final odds will be on their horses given their monetary influence on closing prices. They will be far, far more accurate than you or I or any other joe schmoe out there staring at the unforgiving tote board.

Will they be outflanked on occasion by another large team? Possibly. But that in no way will diminish the huge edge they have in knowing how their money will affect prices after nobody else has a chance to react.

There's a reason they are betting millions and millions every month.

There are edges, and then there are EDGES.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by cj

We all know this by now. It doesn't do the vast majority of us any good since we're not in New Jersey.

It always amazes me when the bettors in the uk can get 8-1 (or better) legally on a horse in Kentucky bettors can only legally get 9/2.

Why is the uk way ahead of the us in this matter?

Allan

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The few large teams operating out there are affecting the pools tremendously simply because they are betting some serious, serious money. Can we at least agree on that, since it's becoming obvious you won't agree with anyone on anything.

Thus, they will come the closest to knowing what the final odds will be on their horses given their monetary influence on closing prices. They will be far, far more accurate than you or I or any other joe schmoe out there staring at the unforgiving tote board.

Will they be outflanked on occasion by another large team? Possibly. But that in no way will diminish the huge edge they have in knowing how their money will affect prices after nobody else has a chance to react.

There's a reason they are betting millions and millions every month.

There are edges, and then there are EDGES.

I agree with this 100%. They have significant edge

[AltonKelsey]

What exactly is the edge in knowing the horse is going to pay 7/2 and not 6-1 ?

I must be missing something

Oh yeah, they can NOT bet the horse at 7/2, but wait, they are the ones making it 7/2 , but wait.

sorry , I'm very confused, help me out.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

What exactly is the edge in knowing the horse is going to pay 7/2 and not 6-1 ?

I must be missing something

Oh yeah, they can NOT bet the horse at 7/2, but wait, they are the ones making it 7/2 , but wait.

sorry , I'm very confused, help me out.

You're right. There is zero edge in betting and knowing a horse will be around 9/2 if it wins, versus betting a horse when she's 9/1 while loading into the gate and not knowing she's actually going to be at or near 9/2 at the finish line.

[cj]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

What exactly is the edge in knowing the horse is going to pay 7/2 and not 6-1 ?

I must be missing something

Oh yeah, they can NOT bet the horse at 7/2, but wait, they are the ones making it 7/2 , but wait.

sorry , I'm very confused, help me out.

How much they can bet without losing an edge including rebate.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by cj

How much they can bet without losing an edge including rebate.

I thought everyone knew that? (How much lower the price can go before edge is lost) Are we objecting to how smart they are, the rebate, or something else?

If we are objecting to the rebate, then I suggest we stop betting and demand that the tracks and adw's stop giving rebates and lower the takeout .

If we are objecting to how smart they are, then good luck .

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

What exactly is the edge in knowing the horse is going to pay 7/2 and not 6-1 ?

I must be missing something

Oh yeah, they can NOT bet the horse at 7/2, but wait, they are the ones making it 7/2 , but wait.

sorry , I'm very confused, help me out.

I was wondering the same thing. Sounds like PA is confusing player disadvantage with whale advantage. One has nothing to do with the other. Whales don't make money because other players don't know what the final odds will be (that just makes it harder for other players to win), they make money because imo


1) they have excellent forecasting methods (which seems to include inside information and perhaps info not available to others-like more accurate times etc.),

2) they get very nice rebates

3), I believe (educated guess by me) they (or at least some of them) have a whole lot more access to what the up to the moment true odds and money bet is than the "experts" claim or admit to.

4) All the modeling stuff they have developed (as per Ian Meyers and Dave Schwartz)

5) They use CRW to make a split second determination of how to exploit their edge and create wagers based on all this information they have

6)) Perhaps even some are past posting.


The last second odds swing are just a result of what they do.

[PaceAdvantage]

If you maniacs don't think being able to wager vast sums of money, bringing a horse down to pretty much where your models say he should be, and also KNOWING that nobody can do a thing about it at that point, isn't some tremendous edge in and of itself, then I don't know what else to say.

It's not even about being smart. It's being ABLE to bet ENOUGH at a point where NOBODY ELSE will be able to bet, to basically LOCK IN YOUR PRICE.

They are, in effect, getting FIXED ODDS while still betting into the pari-mutuel system.

THEY KNOW what the end price will be, because they are SETTING the END PRICE.

I'm not confusing a thing.