Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I SWEAR TO GOD, I AM GOING TO GIVE THIS ****ING JOKE OF A GAME UP

I just bet Ivy's College Fund at Keeneland in the 5th.

I bet the horse at 0mtp when it was 9 to ****ing 1.

8-1 morning line. These are NOT tiny pools.

****ING HORSE IS 9/2 when they cross the wire.

**** THIS SHIT

Exchange wagering. Not sure what the price was on the X. But it sure was higher than 5.6 (9-2).

the X keep the cursing at the odds drop to a minimum.

Allan

[cj]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Exchange wagering. Not sure what the price was on the X. But it sure was higher than 5.6 (9-2).

the X keep the cursing at the odds drop to a minimum.

Allan

We all know this by now. It doesn't do the vast majority of us any good since we're not in New Jersey.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I SWEAR TO GOD, I AM GOING TO GIVE THIS ****ING JOKE OF A GAME UP

I just bet Ivy's College Fund at Keeneland in the 5th.

I bet the horse at 0mtp when it was 9 to ****ing 1.

8-1 morning line. These are NOT tiny pools.

****ING HORSE IS 9/2 when they cross the wire.

**** THIS SHIT

Assuming that betting is closed 2 minutes prior to the start of the race, you still bet this horse at 9/, and this runner's odds were 9/2 at the time the runners were loaded to the gate, would you be equally frustrated as you are now?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Assuming that betting is closed 2 minutes prior to the start of the race, you still bet this horse at 9/, and this runner's odds were 9/2 at the time the runners were loaded to the gate, would you be equally frustrated as you are now?

Absolutely.

I don't care if they close the betting at the bell, or 10 minutes prior. That makes no difference to me. Nor would it solve this particular problem.

You guys all realize Keeneland IS NOT Gulfstream. They don't load the horses at -10mtp. They actually load the horses at 0mtp.

This horse was 8-1 or 9-1 at 0mtp, as they were loading the horses into the gate. Keeneland has some of the largest pools going at the moment.

This winner's odds were cut RIGHT IN HALF from the time they were loading into the gate until the time she crossed the finish line in front.

The problem is, 40% or more of the pool is MISSING until AFTER the race starts. That's the freakin problem in a nutshell.

I still would have bet this horse at 9/2. But that's not the point.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Absolutely.

I don't care if they close the betting at the bell, or 10 minutes prior. That makes no difference to me. Nor would it solve this particular problem.

You guys all realize Keeneland IS NOT Gulfstream. They don't load the horses at -10mtp. They actually load the horses at 0mtp.

This horse was 8-1 or 9-1 at 0mtp, as they were loading the horses into the gate. Keeneland has some of the largest pools going at the moment.

This winner's odds were cut RIGHT IN HALF from the time they were loading into the gate until the time she crossed the finish line in front.

The problem is, 40% or more of the pool is MISSING until AFTER the race starts. That's the freakin problem in a nutshell.

I still would have bet this horse at 9/2. But that's not the point.

How would you feel about no odds being shown (or pools) at any point until the gate opens? That might level the playing field.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by cj

How would you feel about no odds being shown (or pools) at any point until the gate opens? That might level the playing field.

You're being facetious, right?

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Absolutely.

I don't care if they close the betting at the bell, or 10 minutes prior. That makes no difference to me. Nor would it solve this particular problem.

You guys all realize Keeneland IS NOT Gulfstream. They don't load the horses at -10mtp. They actually load the horses at 0mtp.

This horse was 8-1 or 9-1 at 0mtp, as they were loading the horses into the gate. Keeneland has some of the largest pools going at the moment.

This winner's odds were cut RIGHT IN HALF from the time they were loading into the gate until the time she crossed the finish line in front.

The problem is, 40% or more of the pool is MISSING until AFTER the race starts. That's the freakin problem in a nutshell.

I still would have bet this horse at 9/2. But that's not the point.

Yeah, understood. Although I think you mean the problem is 40% of the pool is missing after most people (smaller bettors) can bet. Or another way, 40% is missing up until 30s or less before betting is closed. Has nothing to do when the race starts. Important because it means you're not mad about past posting. You're just mad that the price you thought you were getting isn't the price you got.

I don't see how this can be fixed in a fair way. The price is only changing because there are smarter bettors who have more money and have a way to bet seconds prior to start - either through paying people to monitor the race or some program to estimate off time. There is no way to limit that that is fair because it's admittedly punishing people who are simply better at handicapping and wagering.

My general frustration with this whole thread is there's a context that something nefarious is going which is causing those upset to lose when they'd otherwise win. I don't think this is true. Even if there are slight advantages afforded to those who have large bankrolls, like a slightly faster tote access, the advantages are not why they're winning.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

My general frustration with this whole thread is there's a context that something nefarious is going which is causing those upset to lose when they'd otherwise win.

Something nefarious IS going on when close to half the pool is missing from public information prior to the race going off.

The only way to solve this is via real time reporting. It can be done. Easily.

Tracks just need to spend some of that $$$$ they are raking in from the CRW teams betting their millions every month.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Something nefarious IS going on when close to half the pool is missing from public information prior to the race going off.

The only way to solve this is via real time reporting. It can be done. Easily.

Tracks just need to spend some of that $$$$ they are raking in from the CRW teams betting their millions every month.

Agreed that it's crazy that it takes 30s for wagers to make it's way through to the screen. But let's say some team drops a huge wager 30s prior to off time and you see it in 5s. Will you realistically be able to respond by canceling a wager? I personally would not be able to

[cj]

Originally Posted by pandy

You're being facetious, right?

Somewhat. But currently the odds at 0 mtp mean very little, so what would the harm be?

[cj]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Agreed that it's crazy that it takes 30s for wagers to make it's way through to the screen. But let's say some team drops a huge wager 30s prior to off time and you see it in 5s. Will you realistically be able to respond by canceling a wager? I personally would not be able to

It is pretty easy to cancel a wager on xpressbet, I could do it in five seconds.

[Jeff P]

I'm wondering if there's a way to incentivize pool stability.

Just floating some ideas at this point:

Wagers placed before 5 mtp: 1.00x rebates if placed remotely/reduced takeout if placed on track.

Wagers placed before 4 mtp: 0.90x rebates if placed remotely/some takeout reduction (but not as much if placed earlier) if placed on track.

Wagers placed before 3 mtp: 0.75x rebates if placed remotely/some takeout reduction (but not as much if placed earlier) if placed on track.

Wagers placed before 2 mtp: 0.50x rebates if placed remotely/some takeout reduction (but not as much if placed earlier) if placed on track.

Wagers placed after 2 mtp: no rebates if placed remotely/full takeout if placed on track.

NO canceling of large wagers after 2 mtp under any circumstances.


Thoughts?


-jp

.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by cj

How would you feel about no odds being shown (or pools) at any point until the gate opens? That might level the playing field.

That would NOT level the playing field.

It would give the whales an even bigger advantage because they'd be the only ones with really good modeling software to predict prices.

My approach, which I'd call "good enough," would be a very distant 2nd to theirs. (Or maybe not even in the money.)

[lamboguy]

there were times in the summer when i bet on Arapahoe and my money hit the pools within 10 seconds. then other times i bet Mountaineer and my money didn't make it in for 3 minutes.

there is a lot more that can go on with mutual pools other than after the bell bets. for instance, someone can be peaking at your bets that work inside the tote room or the hub. hypothetically your bet doesn't ever have to make it into a mutual pool either, it can go in someones back pocket and they are responsible for the wager.

[Lafecs]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Yeah, understood. Although I think you mean the problem is 40% of the pool is missing after most people (smaller bettors) can bet. Or another way, 40% is missing up until 30s or less before betting is closed. Has nothing to do when the race starts. Important because it means you're not mad about past posting. You're just mad that the price you thought you were getting isn't the price you got.

I don't see how this can be fixed in a fair way. The price is only changing because there are smarter bettors who have more money and have a way to bet seconds prior to start - either through paying people to monitor the race or some program to estimate off time. There is no way to limit that that is fair because it's admittedly punishing people who are simply better at handicapping and wagering.

My general frustration with this whole thread is there's a context that something nefarious is going which is causing those upset to lose when they'd otherwise win. I don't think this is true. Even if there are slight advantages afforded to those who have large bankrolls, like a slightly faster tote access, the advantages are not why they're winning.

What if the roles were reversed? What if you shut the bots out at 2 MTP, then let the public wager until the gates open. How well would that work out for them?