Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by storyline

Okay so lets view the tote beginning with race #10

Final win odds

#1 5-1
#2 2-1
#3 45-1
#4 9/2
#5 16-1
#6 5-1
#7 7/2
#8 25-1
#9 45-1
#10 11-1


Final win odds race 11
#1 7-1
#2 19-1
#3 5-1
#4 6-1
#5 4-1
#6 60-1
#7 9/2
#8 13-1
#9 13-1
#10 14-1
#11 7/2
#12 80-1

Just stop for one minute and review these odds, doesn't anyone come to the conclusion that a 10 / 11 double should be favored?

Here's the question - if the whales are smart enough to make Runaway Ghost the favorite in race 11 why did they leave win money on the table in race 10 by letting the winner go off as the 6th betting choice? Yet supposably I'm to believe they (whales) killed the DD making the combination of 10 / 11 the lowest paying daily double?

You guys can't have it both ways, if the whales made the 10 / 11 DD the lowest paying combination then explain why they left win money on the table in race 10.

This is where your argument falls apart and it's my contention that this was an inside old fashion heist.

To answer Dave the 11/5 x's makes perfect sense when viewed in context with what I've been saying. They enhance the 11's chance of winning and use the most logically horses underneath, follow the money.

Time to get some fresh air

Must be a betting stable. Then it makes perfect sense. Maybe it's a huge partnership and they all decided to bet the double...

[jay68802]

Only shows that the 11 was the favorite in the Double pool. If you follow that thinking, the 11 should have been the favorite in the win pool. The 2-11 double and the 7-11 double payouts were much lower than that.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Must be a betting stable. Then it makes perfect sense. Maybe it's a huge partnership and they all decided to bet the double...

Mike I don't know but the wagering irregularities are too obvious to be swept under the rug or dismissed as the whales are smarter than us.

If it was you and I we'd be playing the tri's / super / P4 / H5 but there's no way to know, I'm calling for a special counsel.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Only shows that the 11 was the favorite in the Double pool. If you follow that thinking, the 11 should have been the favorite in the win pool. The 2-11 double and the 7-11 double payouts were much lower than that.

Jay do you have the final DD payouts, I'm going from memory when I last looked at that pool, thanks

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Only shows that the 11 was the favorite in the Double pool. If you follow that thinking, the 11 should have been the favorite in the win pool. The 2-11 double and the 7-11 double payouts were much lower than that.

Here I am thinking storyline is saying the 10-11 double WAS the lowest price double...which would be pretty incredible...

Are you saying this isn't so?

[storyline]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Here I am thinking storyline is saying the 10-11 double WAS the lowest price double...which would be pretty incredible...

Are you saying this isn't so?

That's what I believed, if anyone has access to the 10 / all payouts I'd be most interested.

[PaceAdvantage]

Somebody on this board must have this data...I've seen it posted by people before.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Somebody on this board must have this data...I've seen it posted by people before.

        $1  Pgm
0     94.9    1
1    417.7    2
2    117.7    3
3    119.1    4
4     59.7    5
5    670.8    6
6    107.9    7
7    199.6    8
8    191.2    9
9    256.9   10
10    73.1   11
11  1428.3   12

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Here I am thinking storyline is saying the 10-11 double WAS the lowest price double...which would be pretty incredible...

Are you saying this isn't so?

As I said before, I was lost as far as the Sunland Derby. I did a check of the Double payouts with about 7-10 min to post in the 10th to see if they could give me a clue. At that time the 2 and 7 to the 11 were in the $40-$50 range, with the 1,5, and 7 being close to that. I thought that it proved that I was not alone with my opinion of the Sunland. After that I just wanted to watch the race, and keep my money.

[davew]

Originally Posted by storyline

Okay so lets view the tote beginning with race #10

race 10 10 won

Final win odds race 11
#1 7-1
#2 19-1
#3 5-1
#4 6-1
#5 4-1
#6 60-1
#7 9/2
#8 13-1
#9 13-1
#10 14-1
#11 7/2
#12 80-1

Just stop for one minute and review these odds, doesn't anyone come to the conclusion that a 10 / 11 double should be favored?

You misunderstood. After the 10 won race 10, probable pay-offs are posted. Of the 12 probables posted, 11 was the favorite.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

        $1  Pgm
0     94.9    1
1    417.7    2
2    117.7    3
3    119.1    4
4     59.7    5
5    670.8    6
6    107.9    7
7    199.6    8
8    191.2    9
9    256.9   10
10    73.1   11
11  1428.3   12

Thanks Jerry most helpful, obvious that the 10 / 5 were the favored combination and the 10 / 11 was 2nd most favored. Still pretty significant imo and hardly lessens my contention.

Ideally I'd like to view the $1 Daily Double Probabilities screen from race 10 if anyone has that.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by davew

You misunderstood. After the 10 won race 10, probable pay-offs are posted. Of the 12 probables posted, 11 was the favorite.

So are you saying that the closing combination 10 / 11 was favored before the gates opened for race #10?

I asked Jerry or anyone else to post the $1 Daily Double Probabilities screen from race 10.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by storyline

So are you saying that the closing combination 10 / 11 was favored before the gates opened for race #10?

I asked Jerry or anyone else to post the $1 Daily Double Probabilities screen from race 10.

This is the last snap I have. I believe it's close.

      1       2       3       4      5       6       7      8       9   \
1    52.0   172.0    45.0    47.0   31.0   337.0    48.0  109.0   104.0
2    22.0   110.0    23.0    25.0   17.0   161.0    28.0   45.0    56.0
3   518.0  1475.0   385.0   454.0  218.0  1703.0   367.0  696.0   694.0
4    63.0   233.0    54.0    55.0   36.0   422.0    52.0   99.0    98.0
5   179.0   714.0   163.0   169.0  112.0  1135.0   151.0  302.0   294.0
6    55.0   256.0    53.0    51.0   36.0   396.0    51.0  100.0    94.0
7    50.0   192.0    35.0    38.0   29.0   281.0    37.0   75.0    82.0
8   310.0  1054.0   366.0   335.0  172.0  1265.0   363.0  234.0   440.0
9   624.0  1844.0   477.0   570.0  260.0  2604.0   498.0  743.0   716.0
10   94.0   417.0   117.0   119.0   59.0   670.0   107.0  199.0   191.0
11  887.0  4025.0  1035.0  1265.0  254.0  8855.0  1059.0  868.0  1204.0

        10     11      12
1    141.0   38.0   739.0
2     48.0   27.0   359.0
3    931.0  293.0  5534.0
4    158.0   40.0   751.0
5    507.0  122.0  3406.0
6    167.0   41.0   926.0
7     88.0   30.0   681.0
8    988.0  291.0  3162.0
9   1245.0  375.0  4025.0
10   256.0   73.0  1428.0
11  2459.0  942.0  9999.0

[davew]

Originally Posted by storyline

So are you saying that the closing combination 10 / 11 was favored before the gates opened for race #10?

I asked Jerry or anyone else to post the $1 Daily Double Probabilities screen from race 10.

oops, I meant 2nd favorite - I had pools yesterday but are gone from my ADW because Sunland running today, I guess.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

This is the last snap I have. I believe it's close.

      1       2       3       4      5       6       7      8       9   \
1    52.0   172.0    45.0    47.0   31.0   337.0    48.0  109.0   104.0
2    22.0   110.0    23.0    25.0   17.0   161.0    28.0   45.0    56.0
3   518.0  1475.0   385.0   454.0  218.0  1703.0   367.0  696.0   694.0
4    63.0   233.0    54.0    55.0   36.0   422.0    52.0   99.0    98.0
5   179.0   714.0   163.0   169.0  112.0  1135.0   151.0  302.0   294.0
6    55.0   256.0    53.0    51.0   36.0   396.0    51.0  100.0    94.0
7    50.0   192.0    35.0    38.0   29.0   281.0    37.0   75.0    82.0
8   310.0  1054.0   366.0   335.0  172.0  1265.0   363.0  234.0   440.0
9   624.0  1844.0   477.0   570.0  260.0  2604.0   498.0  743.0   716.0
10   94.0   417.0   117.0   119.0   59.0   670.0   107.0  199.0   191.0
11  887.0  4025.0  1035.0  1265.0  254.0  8855.0  1059.0  868.0  1204.0

        10     11      12
1    141.0   38.0   739.0
2     48.0   27.0   359.0
3    931.0  293.0  5534.0
4    158.0   40.0   751.0
5    507.0  122.0  3406.0
6    167.0   41.0   926.0
7     88.0   30.0   681.0
8    988.0  291.0  3162.0
9   1245.0  375.0  4025.0
10   256.0   73.0  1428.0
11  2459.0  942.0  9999.0

Seems reasonably consistent with the argument that a team liked the 11 in 11 but wasn't sure about the 10 in 10.