Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-21-2012, 09:59 PM   #1
jasperson
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
numbers

I have been hitting the Merlot so please excuse my errors in spelling and grammer. Handicapping is an art and not a science. Numbers help but it is how we put them together is important. Race par times is number and a average(or means dependent on how you calucate it ) but it it just a number. It is accurate average. I don't see a need for a range of numbers that make up par for the race. It is what it is. If a horse can run close to that number he is a contender on speed. Same for class and pace. If he can be a condender on pace,class and speed is there something that will cause him to be better or worse in this race? That is question handicapping has to answer. Too me that is the essence of handicapping. I am a numbers man but I don't think that a computer can do right now what the human brain can. Computer and numbers help, but they are not the complete answer and in the near future it don't think they will be.
Jack
jasperson is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-21-2012, 10:51 PM   #2
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
I'll bet you were sipping the Merlot while you were handicapping Del Mar.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-21-2012, 11:15 PM   #3
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
Summer is strictly white burgundy time for me.
Too damn hot down here to drink red wine
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 12:27 AM   #4
Overlay
 
Overlay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson
If he can be a contender on pace,class and speed is there something that will cause him to be better or worse in this race? That is question handicapping has to answer.
To me, that question can be answered with equal validity either purely through subjective judgment and experience/memory, or through quantitative analysis (numbers), coupled with probabilities associated with those numbers and their patterns, and with a horse's ranking in comparison to its competitors, all of which a computer can calculate and manipulate, without the need for subjective input (other than whatever opinion and judgment may have gone into the formulation of the basic numbers/figures themselves).

Last edited by Overlay; 07-22-2012 at 12:33 AM.
Overlay is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 12:48 AM   #5
Overlay
 
Overlay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlay
To me, that question can be answered with equal validity either purely through subjective judgment and experience/memory, or through quantitative analysis (numbers), coupled with probabilities associated with those numbers and their patterns, and with a horse's ranking in comparison to its competitors, all of which a computer can calculate and manipulate, without the need for subjective input (other than whatever opinion and judgment may have gone into the formulation of the basic numbers/figures themselves).
Also, in my opinion, a computer has the advantage of being able to perform a comparatively larger volume of calculations at higher speed, and with greater accuracy and consistency from one race to the next.
Overlay is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 02:51 AM   #6
Uncle Salty
SoCal Enthusiast
 
Uncle Salty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 147
Quote:
I'll bet you were sipping the Merlot while you were handicapping Del Mar.
My Del Mar handicapping from last week looks like I was hitting the Merlot as well....
Uncle Salty is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 04:54 AM   #7
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,662
i look at numbers to give me an idea where to spot horses. the numbers that i deal with make the lower the number the better. so when i see a horse that ran a 35 in a race with a par of 32, i have to figure if there can be enough improvement going forward to warrant the horse being in that race, i am going to probably look at it that the horse is going to need to run a 29 to win the race. the same theory would probably apply to betting the race.
lamboguy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 08:34 AM   #8
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
the numbers are just that....numbers. the horses can't read numbers...the jockeys don't see numbers when they look for an opening...in other words you can only do so much with the numbers.............the only number i care about is the one that cashes....that being said....i got crushed the first two days at saratoga.....i need a winning number. forget the merlot......i need to smoke a number....californias finest.....
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 09:21 AM   #9
dkbigsky
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 229
I think I might need a little Jack maybe then I could win something at Saratoga.
dkbigsky is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 11:09 AM   #10
Capper Al
Registered User
 
Capper Al's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
Jack, my friend, for me a good handicap is reading the numbers and reading the past performances. Too many times I get lazy and just read the numbers. The computer does do the calculations faster and more accurate than I can. The computers will suggest most contenders. But in the end, a capper needs to find the story behind each horse. And this can only be found in the past perfomances. It is the story that will put it all together.
__________________


"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."

Anatole France


Capper Al is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 11:50 AM   #11
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,878
And I just look at the numbers. Works for me.

Different strokes for different folks.

Quote:
I am a numbers man but I don't think that a computer can do right now what the human brain can.
Especially when it is supercharged with a little vino.

Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 11:56 AM   #12
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
Do you look at the horse itself?
In the flesh, before the race?
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 01:56 PM   #13
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
Quote:
It is the story that will put it all together
Aesop's Fables.
I assume you have talked to everyone who bets races, or did you just make that up?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 04:33 PM   #14
Capper Al
Registered User
 
Capper Al's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Aesop's Fables.
I assume you have talked to everyone who bets races, or did you just make that up?
Quote:
for me a good handicap is reading the numbers and reading the past performances
I made you up. I did say for me.
__________________


"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."

Anatole France


Capper Al is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-22-2012, 06:14 PM   #15
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
My apologies for missing that.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:59 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.