Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - General


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-22-2020, 05:57 PM   #1
Saratoga_Mike
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,876
2016 Polling Results - All Wrong?

Not really...

Final 2016 polling averages:*

National:
Polls - Clinton by 3.3 points
Actual - Clinton by 2.1 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Florida:
Polls - Trump by 0.2 points
Actual - Trump by 1.2 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Penn:
Polls - Clinton by 1.9 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Acceptable results, within the margin of error.

Michigan:
Polls - Clinton by 3.4 points
Actual - Trump by 0.3 points

Comment: Within the margin of error

Wisconsin:
Polls - Clinton by 6.5 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Bad results

*Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html

The link brings you to the final 2016 national polling averages; you may also pull up the state-by-state averages.

Why were a few of states polls off by more than expected? Undecided broke disproportionally toward Trump (polls don't make predictions about undecideds, obviously) and incorrect modeling of demographic turnout. Will this happen again? I guess it depends on who you're backing.
Saratoga_Mike is offline  
Old 10-22-2020, 05:57 PM   #2
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 23,597
not comparable to this time around
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
46zilzal is online now  
Old 10-22-2020, 06:10 PM   #3
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 67,863
Somebody woke up mikey...we're in for a treat.
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is offline  
Old 10-22-2020, 06:35 PM   #4
Saratoga_Mike
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,876
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Somebody woke up mikey...we're in for a treat.
I've been around, just reading the racing side. Thanks for the acknowledgment, though.
Saratoga_Mike is offline  
Old 10-22-2020, 06:39 PM   #5
myohmyjustify
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 194
Within the margin of error doesn't cut it when the actual vote is taken on Election Day. The actual vote proved just one thing, the polls were wrong. Plain and simple.

Participation trophies may work in tee-ball and under 10 little league baseball, but the standards are stricter in the real world, making the margin of error argument laughable.

Also the three states that the pollsters had Hillary Clinton winning but lost accounted for 46 votes in the electoral college for President Trump. That's a 100% miss in the within the margin of error argument.

The pollsters did not even earn a trophy by any standard in 2016.
myohmyjustify is online now  
Old 10-22-2020, 07:12 PM   #6
Saratoga_Mike
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,876
Quote:
Originally Posted by myohmyjustify View Post
Within the margin of error doesn't cut it when the actual vote is taken on Election Day. The actual vote proved just one thing, the polls were wrong. Plain and simple.
If the polls predicted the results perfectly, we would not need elections. From a statistical standpoint, "within the margin of error" means the state-level polls predicted the results plus/minus 4 points (varies by poll) with a 95% confidence level. It sounds like you want the polls to nail the results with a 100% confidence level. That isn't going to happen, no matter what pollster(s) you hire.
Saratoga_Mike is offline  
Old 10-22-2020, 09:31 PM   #7
elysiantraveller
Registered User
 
elysiantraveller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 12,936
Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
not comparable to this time around
They aren't.

I don't think that was the OPs point. Polls weren't far off in 2016 and the main error was a 3pt error based on white voters and education levels.

Its not the same this time around because pollsters are accounting for that.

Regardless a 3pt swing again in Trump's favor means... he gets his ass kicked still.
elysiantraveller is online now  
Old 10-22-2020, 10:27 PM   #8
sammy the sage
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,757
Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller View Post
They aren't.

I don't think that was the OPs point. Polls weren't far off in 2016 and the main error was a 3pt error based on white voters and education levels.

Its not the same this time around because pollsters are accounting for that.

Regardless a 3pt swing again in Trump's favor means... he gets his ass kicked still.
HHHHHmmmmm....Latin & Black voters are definitely DOWN on THE cRAT side....

not saying fat orangeman wins....but closer THAN you think....

my wet dream....since the sickening blue wave will probably take the senate as well....Trump somehow wins....gets kicked out...Pence is in...but not enough Lib. juice to override any veto....

I love stalemated STUPID irresponsible lawmakers...that way they can't CUCK us over....
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
sammy the sage is online now  
Old 10-22-2020, 10:30 PM   #9
jocko699
"A Proud Boy"
 
jocko699's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 2,631
Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
HHHHHmmmmm....Latin & Black voters are definitely DOWN on THE cRAT side....

not saying fat orangeman wins....but closer THAN you think....

my wet dream....since the sickening blue wave will probably take the senate as well....Trump somehow wins....gets kicked out...Pence is in...but not enough Lib. juice to override any veto....

I love stalemated STUPID irresponsible lawmakers...that way they can't CUCK us over....
The young black Americans will vote for Trump in record numbers this election
__________________
ďAmerica makes prodigious mistakes, America has colossal faults, but one thing cannot be denied: America is always on the move. She may be going to Hell, of course, but at least she isnít standing still.Ē --E.E. Cummings
jocko699 is offline  
Old 10-23-2020, 12:56 AM   #10
ElKabong
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 8,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike View Post
Not really...

Final 2016 polling averages:*

National:
Polls - Clinton by 3.3 points
Actual - Clinton by 2.1 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Florida:
Polls - Trump by 0.2 points
Actual - Trump by 1.2 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Penn:
Polls - Clinton by 1.9 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Acceptable results, within the margin of error.

Michigan:
Polls - Clinton by 3.4 points
Actual - Trump by 0.3 points

Comment: Within the margin of error

Wisconsin:
Polls - Clinton by 6.5 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Bad results

*Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html

The link brings you to the final 2016 national polling averages; you may also pull up the state-by-state averages.

Why were a few of states polls off by more than expected? Undecided broke disproportionally toward Trump (polls don't make predictions about undecideds, obviously) and incorrect modeling of demographic turnout. Will this happen again? I guess it depends on who you're backing.
Not accurate. Like this year the #s were inflated in Sept, Oct and didn't reflect reality. The numbers were vapor. Only in the last days did the polls inch back to reality.

Also note, all these polls were under what trump performed to. Not a single poll had trump at a higher number than the results showed. If you dont see the basic error of this, I can't help you
ElKabong is online now  
Old 10-23-2020, 01:15 AM   #11
elysiantraveller
Registered User
 
elysiantraveller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 12,936
Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
HHHHHmmmmm....Latin & Black voters are definitely DOWN on THE cRAT side....
They aren't...

A couple of points around the margins... maybe.

If you're a Republican (I know you aren't) and you're hinging your chances of electoral success on Latino and Black voters, in 2020, you've already lost.
elysiantraveller is online now  
Old 10-23-2020, 03:00 PM   #12
mostpost
Registered User
 
mostpost's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 12,228
Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699 View Post
The young black Americans will vote for Trump in record numbers this election
I am amazed that you know your ABCís well enough to write such a dumb statement.
__________________
Proud Possessor of Zero Rep Points.
mostpost is offline  
Old 10-23-2020, 04:31 PM   #13
davew
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 14,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost View Post
I am amazed that you know your ABCís well enough to write such a dumb statement.
why do you refute this and expose your bias and ignorance?
davew is online now  
Old 10-23-2020, 06:54 PM   #14
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 103,098
Quote:
Originally Posted by davew View Post
why do you refute this and expose your bias and ignorance?
It is all he has to expose.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline  
Old 10-23-2020, 07:15 PM   #15
chrisl
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Ketchikan,AK
Posts: 1,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost View Post
I am amazed that you know your ABCís well enough to write such a dumb statement.
That's right. You do know. All those African Americans that you sit with in the pews on Sunday and have over for cookouts during the week. You have had long discussions with what 1000's of them, on how are they going to vote. That would have to be true for you to post what you did. Please tell Reverend Mosty
chrisl is offline  
Closed Thread




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you prefer your Coffee !?
Cream and Sugar - 28.57%
30 Votes
Cream only - 20.00%
21 Votes
Black - 41.90%
44 Votes
Decaf - 9.52%
10 Votes
Espresso - 12.38%
13 Votes
Starbucks etc... - 9.52%
10 Votes
Other - 23.81%
25 Votes
Total Votes: 105
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:49 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.