Woodbine Track Profile

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Tom

But when you are playing a horse who ran early in the meet, having the profile tells you what was going on then.

Check - I will find out about the lane stuff tomorrow.

Thanks Tom!

Originally Posted by Onesome

Well I was going to sit on the sidelines and let you learn the hardway, but I guess I'll be nice....for once....the data is to broad and general and you need a huge sample size. In theory you could probably take the 1400 or so races over the last 2 years from HK that are easily available and grab the same info and see it there.

But I will say Jeff P's post about the horses closing against the bias is the type of stuff I think might still be valuable, instead of looking at the macro of a race, look at the micro, i.e. bias, pace scenario, odds profile of winner etc. Grading races instead of the individual horses in a race. Something I've dabbled more with recently.

So what you are saying is I need a bigger sample size in order to be more broader and more general? But as the meet goes on would the data for the RACES be a significance?

[HHE10]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Thanks Tom!



So what you are saying is I need a bigger sample size in order to be more broader and more general? But as the meet goes on would the data for the RACES be a significance?

I think he was saying that instead of grading horses in that race, you should instead grade the races. So instead of just doing the running style stuff for that horse in a race, instead grade the races that are run.

For example, if a race that pops up the most at Woodbine (like CLM 7.5k 6F on the tapeta) you should be grading that instead. That way when that same conditions go again, you can go back and look at how those races ran at that condition.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by HHE10

I think he was saying that instead of grading horses in that race, you should instead grade the races. So instead of just doing the running style stuff for that horse in a race, instead grade the races that are run.

For example, if a race that pops up the most at Woodbine (like CLM 7.5k 6F on the tapeta) you should be grading that instead. That way when that same conditions go again, you can go back and look at how those races ran at that condition.

Well there goes 2 days of work

[rispa]

I think you should do exactly what works for you! But, when you ask for thoughts on your work, the opinions that follow may/may not be to your liking and/or helpful. Getting to know one track inside out would definitely be beneficial, regardless of the track. Find your path and then stay on it.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

So does anyone want me to continue on this or just give it up?
I would like to continue but that is just me

IMO Conley....

Thats a lot of work for something you can get looking at the bottom of the Ultimate PP's....

Do you plan on using some sort of software or just the PP's?

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

IMO Conley....

Thats a lot of work for something you can get looking at the bottom of the Ultimate PP's....

Do you plan on using some sort of software or just the PP's?

Yea I could do that....
but I would like to help out others here with the info.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by rispa

I think you should do exactly what works for you! But, when you ask for thoughts on your work, the opinions that follow may/may not be to your liking and/or helpful. Getting to know one track inside out would definitely be beneficial, regardless of the track. Find your path and then stay on it.

MOTIVATION!!!

Thank you sir.

[Tom]

I disagree with the large sample size.
To know what is going on for betting NOW, all you need is 3 races to get started. Long term data is helpful for certain thing, short term for other. If I am going top play CD Saturday, I look at Thurs-Fr races and make a quick profile - then bet using it.

Long term data is fine, but you bet in the short term.

Check, I went to the WO website and couple literally find no useful information there. WORST website for a track I have ever seen.
No idea what a lane means, pretty much don't care at this point- WO is off my list of track I am interested in anymore

Lots of tracks out there, no need to suffer the incompetence of the lousy tracks.

If I can figure it out, I will let you know.

Good luck

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Tom

I disagree with the large sample size.
To know what is going on for betting NOW, all you need is 3 races to get started. Long term data is helpful for certain thing, short term for other. If I am going top play CD Saturday, I look at Thurs-Fr races and make a quick profile - then bet using it.

Long term data is fine, but you bet in the short term.

Check, I went to the WO website and couple literally find no useful information there. WORST website for a track I have ever seen.
No idea what a lane means, pretty much don't care at this point- WO is off my list of track I am interested in anymore

Lots of tracks out there, no need to suffer the incompetence of the lousy tracks.

If I can figure it out, I will let you know.

Good luck

I will still continue to do this profile of Woodbine as it gives me something to do during this pandemic. Thanks for looking into it Tom and good luck with profiling Churchill.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by HHE10

I think he was saying that instead of grading horses in that race, you should instead grade the races. So instead of just doing the running style stuff for that horse in a race, instead grade the races that are run.

For example, if a race that pops up the most at Woodbine (like CLM 7.5k 6F on the tapeta) you should be grading that instead. That way when that same conditions go again, you can go back and look at how those races ran at that condition.

Not quite. I mean the question I would be seeking is what happen to horses who ran well in a sprint when the opening fraction <22 seconds in their next start? were they overbet, underbet or no impact? What if the final fraction was sub 23. How well do horses do when the favorite isn't in the money on their next out? etc.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by Tom

I disagree with the large sample size.
To know what is going on for betting NOW, all you need is 3 races to get started. Long term data is helpful for certain thing, short term for other. If I am going top play CD Saturday, I look at Thurs-Fr races and make a quick profile - then bet using it.

Long term data is fine, but you bet in the short term.

Check, I went to the WO website and couple literally find no useful information there. WORST website for a track I have ever seen.
No idea what a lane means, pretty much don't care at this point- WO is off my list of track I am interested in anymore

Lots of tracks out there, no need to suffer the incompetence of the lousy tracks.

If I can figure it out, I will let you know.

Good luck

HKJC is the gold standard, everything including the kitchen sink on that site.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Onesome

HKJC is the gold standard, everything including the kitchen sink on that site.

It’s unfortunate that many here can’t appreciate the scope of all the information that’s available on the Hong Kong Jockey Club Web site. They really understand how treat and accommodate their patrons. The response of course is reflected in the incredible size of the individual betting pools and the overall handle each and every race day. As far as I’m concerned it’s the best racing product on the planet!

[Tom]

All the info in the world is of little value if you are not going to play the races at those times of day.

And I am never going to.

Hong Kong racing does not exist in my world and it never will.

[Tom]

CheckMark - I found out about the turf rails.
No mention of lanes anywhere I could see.

BRIS does not have any rail placement in any of their charts.
Both DRF and EB doe have them.

EB is he best chart, because it has run up distance as well. Have no idea if it is correct data, but is there. And it show you the running line positions, which is what yo need for a profile.

Unbelievable BRIS charts are so crappy - no Graded Stake mention either. Worst charts there are - FREE and not worth the price!

DRF has a really bizarre chart set up - old style charts, no options for running line positions and BLs, and a separate PDF for just the TV's and rail placements - instead of just putting it in the chart PDF.

The more you look for information in this game, the less you want to bother playing it......

I guess it is rocket science to some.....

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Tom

CheckMark - I found out about the turf rails.
No mention of lanes anywhere I could see.

BRIS does not have any rail placement in any of their charts.
Both DRF and EB doe have them.

EB is he best chart, because it has run up distance as well. Have no idea if it is correct data, but is there. And it show you the running line positions, which is what yo need for a profile.

Unbelievable BRIS charts are so crappy - no Graded Stake mention either. Worst charts there are - FREE and not worth the price!

DRF has a really bizarre chart set up - old style charts, no options for running line positions and BLs, and a separate PDF for just the TV's and rail placements - instead of just putting it in the chart PDF.

The more you look for information in this game, the less you want to bother playing it......

I guess it is rocket science to some.....

Ok Tom thank you.

Yes I would have to agree with you about Equibase and their charts. Yes I checked out before I went to bed last night and saw that there were the placements of the rail in the charts. Now should I keep going with this or no?