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01-31-2015, 09:42 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Lets play guess the super.
7 horse field. Results were 2-1 over 3-1 over 20-1 over 40-1. The 3 horses out of the super were: 6-5, 6-1 and 24-1.
What's a fair price for a buck.
Thanks.
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01-31-2015, 09:44 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
7 horse field. Results were 2-1 over 3-1 over 20-1 over 40-1. The 3 horses out of the super were: 6-5, 6-1 and 24-1.
What's a fair price for a buck.
Thanks.
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Pool size?
I'm gonna take a stab here and say $150 for a buck
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01-31-2015, 09:51 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Pool size?
I'm gonna take a stab here and say $150 for a buck
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I say more than that, but not by much.
$200-220
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01-31-2015, 09:51 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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21k pool.
Is that your guess on what it DID pay or what is SHOULD pay?
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01-31-2015, 09:54 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
21k pool.
Is that your guess on what it DID pay or what is SHOULD pay?
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did
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01-31-2015, 09:58 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
did
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thanks for playing.
Super paid 27.30 for a dime.
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01-31-2015, 10:05 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
thanks for playing.
Super paid 27.30 for a dime.
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Did you think the payoff was low?
In a seven horse field, those longshots will get
a lot more play in the 3rd/4th spots than
their win odds indicate.
20-1/40-1 shots in a field of 10+ runners will
pay much better if hitting the SUPR.
For a seven horse field, that payoff seems fine to me.
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01-31-2015, 10:22 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Did you think the payoff was low?
In a seven horse field, those longshots will get
a lot more play in the 3rd/4th spots than
their win odds indicate.
20-1/40-1 shots in a field of 10+ runners will
pay much better if hitting the SUPR.
For a seven horse field, that payoff seems fine to me.
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I thought it was a little low, i know what you're saying about the bombs being overbet underneath, so maybe it was a "Fair" price. its hard to get a lot of money with the 10 cent minimum when 2 of the top 3 contenders run 1-2 no matter what happens underneath.
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01-31-2015, 10:30 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I thought it was a little low, i know what you're saying about the bombs being overbet underneath, so maybe it was a "Fair" price. its hard to get a lot of money with the 10 cent minimum when 2 of the top 3 contenders run 1-2 no matter what happens underneath.
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Okay....here's another game - a hypothetical one.
If the SFC pool was $21K for a dime minimum,
what do you think it would have been for a buck?
My guess is that it would be down at least 25%.
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01-31-2015, 10:38 PM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Okay....here's another game - a hypothetical one.
If the SFC pool was $21K for a dime minimum,
what do you think it would have been for a buck?
My guess is that it would be down at least 25%.
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I think that's possible in a huge field, but in a 7 horse field, i dont think as much.
Its funny how bettors don't realize how much more these things would pay on a 1 dollar minimum. You can box the entire field for under 100 with the dime option, for a buck, it would cost 840 to cover all the combos.. I know bettors are really in love with the dime option, but in shorter fields, it really kills the price, esp if you get bombs on top.
I dont mind a dime bet in a 14 horse field where the favorite is 7-2 and all 14 horses have some shot to hit the ticket, but there's really no reason to have a dime bet in a 7 horse field that's not even all that wide open.
I don't know, maybe that's just me.
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01-31-2015, 10:41 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I think that's possible in a huge field, but in a 7 horse field, i dont think as much.
Its funny how bettors don't realize how much more these things would pay on a 1 dollar minimum. You can box the entire field for under 100 with the dime option, for a buck, it would cost 840 to cover all the combos.. I know bettors are really in love with the dime option, but in shorter fields, it really kills the price, esp if you get bombs on top.
I dont mind a dime bet in a 14 horse field where the favorite is 7-2 and all 14 horses have some shot to hit the ticket, but there's really no reason to have a dime bet in a 7 horse field that's not even all that wide open.
I don't know, maybe that's just me.
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The tracks have only one objective when they tweak these wagers.
That is to increase handle.
If that's not happening, they will go back to what they had before.
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01-31-2015, 10:51 PM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
The tracks have only one objective when they tweak these wagers.
That is to increase handle.
If that's not happening, they will go back to what they had before.
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I suggested a 1 cent minimum....wouldn't that increase handle even more?
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02-01-2015, 02:22 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Saratoga, NY
Posts: 393
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How much do you want that to pay? If you're gambling and like the 2, pitch the 6/5 and pick 2 horses for 2nd, and wheel the rest that's a $0.90 play for $27 return pretty good for a 2-1 winner, toss the 6/5 out completely it's only a $0.60 cent play... What did you expect $1,000 for $0.10? If I got $18 for $.10 I'd consider it fair without knowing any other factors at all of the race
You're looking at that 40-1 and seeing HUGE payoff, but by time you get to that spot in the super there's only 4 horses left that can hit the spot in a 7 horse field
Last edited by moneyandland; 02-01-2015 at 02:24 AM.
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02-01-2015, 07:55 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,230
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Guess this super.
The year 1995. Hollywood Park. Twelve horse field. Favorite 7-2. Top 4 finishers--two at 6-1, two at 8-1 (I can't remember the exact order.)
Minimum bet one dollar.
Supers were relatively new to betting menu. So betters were learning how to structure their tickets and how much to spend.
I will report the payoff tomorrow.
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02-01-2015, 06:48 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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There are 11,880 possibilities in a 12-horse field. I would guess that SF came back around $8K (but more wouldn't surprise me based on your caveats).
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