David Milch Lost $100 Million at the Track

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Can you add to bad luck, bad rides, close photos........bad decisions? or is that a different problem? Does the compulsive gambler ever blame themselves in the midst of their downfall? Or is there a victim mentality?

Sure. The stewards can be against them as well. Most of the time they don't see themselves as incompetent as they are. They lose 90% of the photos, their jockeys are bums, etc. If the compulsive gambler didn't believe the win was close, he wouldn't chase it. And often, when they hit the big one, they delude themselves into believing their luck has changed and they bet even bigger. I'm not sure it's a victim mentality, but most of the losers might agree that the racing gods are against them.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Of course sharp players detest losing because they know something went wrong. To finish the thought, sharp players look at the loss as a learning experience. Did I select poorly? Did I bet poorly? What did I miss? Of course they recognize that losing is part of the game, but the sharp player looks to turn loses around, not just say c'est la vie and forget about it. The sharp player expects to win and is disappointed in himself when he doesn't. The solution to that is to figure out if you need to do something better.

You ever play sports? You ever have a coach that just said, oh well, we lost? The good ones use the loss to improve. You're talking something different than I am. You can detest the loss, but ultimately accept the loss and learn from it.

You always learn more from your failures than your successes. If you aren't looking at the races you lose and trying to figure out what went wrong, you're missing an opportunity.

"Great success is built on failure, frustration, even catastrophy."
~ Sumner Redstone

The problem in life, amplified by gambling, is not the ability to make mistakes. It is the stupidity to keep repeating them.

Post race analysis is crucial and common sense. But if you take it all the way to the extreme of 'detesting a loss', then you're undermining yourself in another area. If any type of investor would truly detest a loss he would be too afraid to invest.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Of course sharp players detest losing because they know something went wrong. To finish the thought, sharp players look at the loss as a learning experience. Did I select poorly? Did I bet poorly? What did I miss? Of course they recognize that losing is part of the game, but the sharp player looks to turn loses around, not just say c'est la vie and forget about it. The sharp player expects to win and is disappointed in himself when he doesn't. The solution to that is to figure out if you need to do something better.

You ever play sports? You ever have a coach that just said, oh well, we lost? The good ones use the loss to improve. You're talking something different than I am. You can detest the loss, but ultimately accept the loss and learn from it.

You always learn more from your failures than your successes. If you aren't looking at the races you lose and trying to figure out what went wrong, you're missing an opportunity.

"Great success is built on failure, frustration, even catastrophy."
~ Sumner Redstone

You are dead-wrong...IMO.

When a quarterback throws an interception...then it is definite that someone on his team made a mistake. But gamblers lose bets all the time...even when they play the game PERFECTLY. In gambling, your short-term destiny isn't in your own hands...because you rely on the performance of OTHERS when you place your bet. The most that you can do is to position yourself favorably against the odds. Whether you collect or not isn't up to you.

How can you "expect to win your bet, and be disappointed when you lose"...when the facts say that you will lose your horse bets about 70% of the time?

Say that you are a sports bettor...and you are confident that you will win 56% of your bets, long-term. That's like putting 56 black jellybeans and 44 red jellybeans into an opaque container...and trying to find a black one with your eyes closed. You try it...and you pick a red one instead. Did you make a "mistake"...and if so...what can you LEARN from it?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You are dead-wrong...IMO.

When a quarterback throws an interception...then it is definite that someone on his team made a mistake. But gamblers lose bets all the time...even when they play the game PERFECTLY. In gambling, your short-term destiny isn't in your own hands...because you rely on the performance of OTHERS when you place your bet. The most that you can do is to position yourself favorably against the odds. Whether you collect or not isn't up to you.

How can you "expect to win your bet, and be disappointed when you lose"...when the facts say that you will lose your horse bets about 70% of the time?

Say that you are a sports bettor...and you are confident that you will win 56% of your bets, long-term. That's like putting 56 black jellybeans and 44 red jellybeans into an opaque container...and trying to find a black one with your eyes closed. You try it...and you pick a red one instead. Did you make a "mistake"...and if so...what can you LEARN from it?

I agree w Halv, I think when you make a bet you THINK you are going to win, maybe the word expect is too strong, but you're not going to make bets you feel are going to lose.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I agree w Halv, I think when you make a bet you THINK you are going to win, maybe the word expect is too strong, but you're not going to make bets you feel are going to lose.

Ridiculous. Any reasonable horseplayer knows that he will lose at least TWICE as often as he will win, regardless of his skill...and he knows this from the very start.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Sure. The stewards can be against them as well. Most of the time they don't see themselves as incompetent as they are. They lose 90% of the photos, their jockeys are bums, etc. If the compulsive gambler didn't believe the win was close, he wouldn't chase it. And often, when they hit the big one, they delude themselves into believing their luck has changed and they bet even bigger. I'm not sure it's a victim mentality, but most of the losers might agree that the racing gods are against them.

The bold is where I was going with that question. The decision made by the player. I was wondering if you could lump together bad rides, bad luck, short end of photos....and player error. Does the compulsive gambler you describe blame it on himself at all as he is spiralling down? Or does that realization indicate the beginning of pulling out of the spiral?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I agree w Halv, I think when you make a bet you THINK you are going to win, maybe the word expect is too strong, but you're not going to make bets you feel are going to lose.

Let me ask you something, SRU:

You make a horse 3-1 on your betting line...and you bet it because it goes off at 6-1. How "confident" are you that this horse will win...and how "disappointed" should you be if it loses?

[pandy]

As has been mentioned here, there probably are different types of compulsive gamblers. I've known several alcoholics and found that they can be quite different. You have the ones who drink every day and sneak vodka...then there's the binge drinkers who actually don't drink at all for months then disappear for a week or so, Spencer Tracy did that and I knew someone like that. Then you have the party animal who doesn't know when to stop. Then you have the drinkers who get nasty or turn into a monster when drunk, like Walter Case, Jr. There are all different types but they all have a serious addiction. I used to work with a guy who drank at work but never on nights, weekends, or parties, so his wife never saw him drunk.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Of course sharp players detest losing over a period of two years, because THEN, they know something went wrong.

FTFY......Totally correct statement now.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Let me ask you something, SRU:

You make a horse 3-1 on your betting line...and you bet it because it goes off at 6-1. How "confident" are you that this horse will win...and how "disappointed" should you be if it loses?

Odds aren't a factor for me personally, I've had 10-1 shots I've bet that I thought there needed to be divine intervention to get beat. I try and make bets I think are going to win, but if there's a horse i think has a shot and is a big overlay, ill bet it but won't have my hopes up too much only because it's a bet I'm making due to a mistake the public is making rather than something I've uncovered before the betting pools even opened.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Odds aren't a factor for me personally, I've had 10-1 shots I've bet that I thought there needed to be divine intervention to get beat. I try and make bets I think are going to win, but if there's a horse i think has a shot and is a big overlay, ill bet it but won't have my hopes up too much only because it's a bet I'm making due to a mistake the public is making rather than something I've uncovered before the betting pools even opened.

And, according to your records...how often would you say that these bets of yours win? And when they LOSE...have you made a "mistake"?

[Grits]

I'm appreciative of all who write and share their opinions here. However, HOH, somehow, you're convinced that you're able to cover the topic completely, and are 100% correct, on all paragraphs you type, especially given, your copious amount of research and the great number of people you talk to beforehand. You've got a direct line to--God knows--everybody.

Yes, I did know Bundy was, in short, "a head case". And too, I know who Dr.James Dobson was...believe he's dead now. Maybe? Tell me 'cause I'm not positive.

The difference between you and I? I don't have to write a thesis to enter into the conversation a simple point that I thought was worth viewing.

But you wanna know what I know about Thaskalos? And I've never spoken one word to him, other than what you see here. One pm, one time, maybe, since 2007. This man has the skill to communicate his knowledge, and converse on this case, (and often, others) with real life evidence that doesn't involve research or phone calls. That doesn't involve--I know so and so. This man has made a living playing horses and he ADMITTED to a gambling addiction. I'm sorry, but I'll go with him if there's any "schooling" for others here on the subject of gambling addiction and the pipe dreams that accompany it.

Carry on, gentlemen. I hope Mr.Milch doesn't have to stay in his dump in Santa Monica for too terribly long..my heart bleeds for him.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You are dead-wrong...IMO.

When a quarterback throws an interception...then it is definite that someone on his team made a mistake. But gamblers lose bets all the time...even when they play the game PERFECTLY. In gambling, your short-term destiny isn't in your own hands...because you rely on the performance of OTHERS when you place your bet. The most that you can do is to position yourself favorably against the odds. Whether you collect or not isn't up to you.

How can you "expect to win your bet, and be disappointed when you lose"...when the facts say that you will lose your horse bets about 70% of the time?

Say that you are a sports bettor...and you are confident that you will win 56% of your bets, long-term. That's like putting 56 black jellybeans and 44 red jellybeans into an opaque container...and trying to find a black one with your eyes closed. You try it...and you pick a red one instead. Did you make a "mistake"...and if so...what can you LEARN from it?

You are usually pretty sharp in your posts, but that one was a clunker, and nothing you said refuted what I was talking about.

So you make a bet and expect to lose 70% of the time so when you lose you aren't disappointed? And you don't look at the losing bet to improve and cut your losing percentage to say, 60%? What exactly is your point, because mine was that sharp players use losing bets to improve. Which I'm pretty sure I'm dead right about.

The fact that a quarterback knows he is unlikely to get through a season without interceptions doesn't often provide him with apathy about the ones he does throw. He finds the mistake and tries to correct it. At least the good ones do. I'll reiterate what I said. You can detest the loss (or interception), and if you are smart learn from it, accept it and move on. OBVIOUSLY you know you aren't going to win every bet, and OBVIOUSLY if you are good at selecting, identifying value, and investing you have a good chance of coming out ahead, but betting without thinking you made a winning bet is against human nature. If you aren't the delusional bettor you understand the win/lose breakout, process the losing bet and move on, but having a robotic ability to never get upset at a loss because losses happen is probably fairly unique.

Your example of the jelly beans is absurd. I expect to win 56% because my selections and bets aren't random or based on fixed odds.

I usually find people who say dead wrong and they aren't talking about whether the earth is round or flat to have the sort of dogmatic personality that causes them to see the world in absolutes rather than shades of gray. You can do so much better. I've seen you do it.

[VigorsTheGrey]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]The gambling addict isn't looking to lose...and he isn't trying to "punish himself". That's the biggest crock that's ever been said or written. He wants to WIN...DESPERATELY! But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL. But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. [B]He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL. He is optimistic about his profitability-chances in this game...but his optimism is IRRATIONAL. There is no REASON for it./QUOTE]

Indeed!

Thaskalos, before I begin, I would like to thank you for your ideas here on PA. There is a saying that "When the pupil is ready the teacher appears." I feel that I am that "pupil" and that YOU are that "teacher."

I have never said that to anyone before in my life before and I am NOT saying it here out of any obsequious or sycophantic motives...I only joined this board a few days ago, and, in an earlier post, regarding Thomas McCormick's book, I said that, "I don't know you from Adam, but..."
and you immediately gave to me title of book that you cherish...It is how you respond to me and others and your intelligent post that I find so very attractive and at the same time consoling...You seem to speak to my, for lack of a more precise term, soul....
...Since I read your Mantra, ..."the readiness is all" spoken by Shakespear's Hamlet, I began to research the importance of this phrase...and to ponder why you might have chosen it as your Mantra...
...Without going into detail, I understand it as indicative of Hamlet's personal conversion from an indubitably tragic figure to someone more positive and effective...
I would suggest here that the reformed addict is one who has somehow and in whatever way he can, internalized and effectively acts on that...readyness that has now become all, for himself...and that he does this not only for himself only, but also, for those around him...As a former abuser of alcohol myself, I find great solace in this mantra and it is now a source of inspiration for me...so thank you!

Your words, "But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL" ....rings so true for me and my own gambling behavior....Coming to terms with this delusion of mine that, "He is optimistic about his profitability-chances in this game...but his optimism is IRRATIONAL. There is no REASON for it."

I have always claimed to be a man of reason, a child of the Enlightenment, but I now know that I am just rationalizing my delusions, and just cherry picking sections of my "factual reality"....those sections that serve to reinforce my delusional thinking....Vigors

[VigorsTheGrey]

[QUOTE=thaskalos]The gambling addict isn't looking to lose...and he isn't trying to "punish himself". That's the biggest crock that's ever been said or written. He wants to WIN...DESPERATELY! But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL. But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. [B]He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL. He is optimistic about his profitability-chances in this game...but his optimism is IRRATIONAL. There is no REASON for it./QUOTE]

Indeed!

Thaskalos, before I begin, I would like to thank you for your ideas here on PA. There is a saying that "When the pupil is ready the teacher appears." I feel that I am that "pupil" and that YOU are that "teacher."

I have never said that to anyone before in my life before and I am NOT saying it here out of any obsequious or sycophantic motives...I only joined this board a few days ago, and, in an earlier post, regarding Thomas McCormick's book, I said that, "I don't know you from Adam, but..."
and you immediately gave to me title of book that you cherish...It is how you respond to me and others and your intelligent post that I find so very attractive and at the same time consoling...You seem to speak to my, for lack of a more precise term, soul....
...Since I read your Mantra, ..."the readiness is all" spoken by Shakespear's Hamlet, I began to research the importance of this phrase...and to ponder why you might have chosen it as your Mantra...
...Without going into detail, I understand it as indicative of Hamlet's personal conversion from an indubitably tragic figure to someone more positive and effective...
I would suggest here that the reformed addict is one who has somehow and in whatever way he can, internalized and effectively acts on that...readyness that has now become all, for himself...and that he does this not only for himself only, but also, for those around him...As a former abuser of alcohol myself, I find great solace in this mantra and it is now a source of inspiration for me...so thank you!

Your words, "But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL" ....rings so true for me and my own gambling behavior....Coming to terms with this delusion of mine that, "He is optimistic about his profitability-chances in this game...but his optimism is IRRATIONAL. There is no REASON for it."

I have always claimed to be a man of reason, a child of the Enlightenment, but I now know that I am just rationalizing my delusions, and just cherry picking sections of my "factual reality"....those sections that serve to reinforce my delusional thinking....Vigors