David Milch Lost $100 Million at the Track

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

You'll find in the following link, that PA posters had only 27% stating they had a winning year in 2014. No such poll has been posted yet for 2015:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...highlight=year

I knew the 80% that he claimed was absolute garbage. In the poll you reference, nearly 60% admit to losing and another 10% admit to breaking even. 6% don't know or don't wanna know...lol

That leaves 24% who claim to be winners. I guess that's close to 80%...

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

You'll find in the following link, that PA posters had only 27% stating they had a winning year in 2014. No such poll has been posted yet for 2015:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...highlight=year

I knew the 80% that he claimed was absolute garbage. In the poll you reference, nearly 60% admit to losing and another 10% admit to breaking even. 6% don't know or don't wanna know...lol

That leaves 24% who claim to be winners. I guess that's close to 80% when using crazy gorilla math.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

You were never a compulsive gambler or even close. It takes far longer than a month. Compulsive gamblers don't see losing as negatively as you did and that is why you caught yourself so quickly. Compulsive gamblers chase bets because they believe the big score is just around the corner. It's great that you found the sweet spot for yourself, but it doesn't seem to me you were never in any real danger of being Milch.

You're right, I was not a compulsive gambler, but I was starting to display some of the tendencies that a compulsive gambler has. I could literally feel the compulsion building up in me, it was palpable.

This is something about addiction I have trouble understanding, denial. If you get drunk every day, how do you not realize that you're an alcoholic? I guess that's a big difference between an actual addict who needs medical help and the people who fix the problem on their own.

When I was addicted to cigarettes, I knew that the only reason I smoked was because of the addiction. I've met many smokers who insist that they love smoking cigarettes, which makes no sense. Cigarettes taste like crap, make you cough, hurt your breathing, and don't get you high. The enjoyment isn't real, it's your addiction playing tricks on you. You think you're enjoying the cigarette, but the first time you smoked one, you thought it taste like crap and couldn't understand why people smoked. Once you get addicted, all of a sudden you enjoy it, because you're satisfying the craving.

I don't believe in false pleasures. If you have to get addicted to something to enjoy it, it sucks.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

IMO, there's a starting point catalyst to ALL behaviors, good or bad. The foundational wiring which takes place in the human mind, with the release of dopamine and other trigger chemicals, is something that you've previously discussed in your past posts, Rich. Don't you think when trying to fix/heal a person from a bad repetitive behavior, that you have to go back to the foundation catalyst, identify it, eliminate it and substitute a positive catalyst/behavior in it's place?

Oh sure. Sooner or later if you are wired a particular way, you'll find the behavior that gives you the high. And if you are the therapist, the cognitive therapy can go well back in time.

For example, most serial killers show an accelerating pattern where as children they may torture animals and move to bigger crimes. A lot of TV shows may suggest it has something to do with childhood traumas, but from what I've read, sociopathy may not be "curable" and may just be how the person was born wired. I've read about adrenaline junkies who look for bigger and bigger thrills, often because the mechanism that tells most of us that the risk is too big doesn't work in their brains.

I think you're right that is some cases you can find the catalyst, eliminate and substitute positive behaviors. I'm not sure you can do it in all cases.

[thaskalos]

The gambling addict isn't looking to lose...and he isn't trying to "punish himself". That's the biggest crock that's ever been said or written. He wants to WIN...DESPERATELY! But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL. He thinks that he can succeed where 99% of the others have failed...even though he can't really point to any "edge" that he holds over his competition. He is optimistic about his profitability-chances in this game...but his optimism is IRRATIONAL. There is no REASON for it.

99% of the gambling addicts are not like David Milch. They didn't bring millions to this game...after being attracted to the "glamour" side of it. Most addicted gamblers are ordinary people, with unsatisfactory jobs, and bills that they worry endlessly about. They gravitate to this game...and see things in it that aren't even there. A little "beginners luck" at the outset makes them think that they may have what it takes to make a living from this game...and earn their money "with their wits", instead of with their backs. The handicapping books that they read suggest that such a thing is possible...and this encourages them further. They hate the lives that they have now...so they create a new life, in their heads...without realizing that this is just idle dreaming.

The average gambling degenerate isn't so addicted to this game that he can't stop playing it whenever he gets some money in his pocket. That's a misconception. The reality is that he is numb...and scared shitless. The addiction isn't that you can't stop playing this game as long as you have money in your pocket. The addiction is that you can't stop playing this game...while your financial life is still somewhat intact.

I know an addicted gambler who is a VP at a bank. His wife and he are saving money to buy a house...and this money is deposited at the bank where the guy works. The wife trusts her husband, of course, and thinks that they are on solid financial ground...when the truth is that they are almost broke...because the husband has blown 80% of their savings at the track. An invoice with their savings balance will periodically come to the house, to appease the wife...but the invoice is fraudulent.

This guy visits the OTB every other day...and we talk about his problem, because he trusts me. I know that he has money in his pocket, and I also know that he has access to the other 20% of their savings...but he doesn't bet a dime. He just sits there in a state of shock. The only reason he comes to the OTB, he tells me, is because he is overcome by guilt whenever he is home alone with his wife. Personally...I think the reason is that he wants to avoid any conversation about their finances that his wife might initiate.

"Why couldn't you stop betting before you lost so much?"...I ask him, as if I didn't already know.

"What difference would it make if I lost 50%, 80% or ALL of it...my wife would hate me just the same. I need to get the money back."...he tells me. "When it was time to stop...I couldn't stop. Now I can stop...but that doesn't solve my problem. The money is gone...and my family will soon be gone as well".

He learned his lesson...but he didn't learn it in time.

There is a poignant scene -- to me, anyway -- in the movie House of Games...where actress Lindsay Crouse is playing a psychiatrist, who is trying to help a young gambling addict. The young gambler can't open up to the psychiatrist about his problems, and tells her that she can't be of any help to him anyway. The psychiatrist disagrees...and tells him that there is a "solution to every problem".

The young gambler looks at her sternly, and says:'

"Okay. I owe someone $30,000...and I don't have it to give it to him. And he says that he is gonna kill me. What can you do about that?"

That's the sort of trouble that the addicted gamblers get into. There IS a solution to every problem...but you have to catch the problem in time. If you don't, then things get totally out of control...and your life is never the same, whether you stop gambling or not. The addicted gambler isn't "sick"...he is WEAK. The problem isn't his "illness"...it's his CHARACTER.

They say that "a fool and his money are soon parted"...but I got a better one: A fool and his money, were lucky to get together in the FIRST place!

It's just unfortunate that they sometimes take their families down with them.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

IMO, there's a starting point catalyst to ALL behaviors, good or bad. The foundational wiring which takes place in the human mind, with the release of dopamine and other trigger chemicals, is something that you've previously discussed in your past posts, Rich. Don't you think when trying to fix/heal a person from a bad repetitive behavior, that you have to go back to the foundation catalyst, identify it, eliminate it and substitute a positive catalyst/behavior in it's place?

Bundy's initial trigger into the world he found himself ultimately in had nothing to do with porn, sex, or murder. His initial step into the darkness was an overwhelming belief in his own brilliance, and his ability to beat the system through his own defenses. He ultimately wanted to see just how far he could go and not get defeated by the system. He acted on his own defense once incarcerated, and while committing his crimes, he made it easier and easier to link himself to the crime. He was always playing a game against the "Man", always feeling ultimate confidence in his ability to wiggle off the hook. It's hard to argue that he didn't have some depraved view of women and sex, but it came down to a battle against the machine. He ultimately found himself in Colorado to play the ultimate life-or-death game once he concluded that Colorado's death penalty laws were the most daunting in the nation.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The gambling addict isn't looking to lose...and he isn't trying to "punish himself". That's the biggest crock that's ever been said or written. He wants to WIN...DESPERATELY! But he CAN'T win...because the recklessness that he has allowed to form within him is the ANTITHESIS of what successful gambling demands. He isn't really sick...he is DELUSIONAL. He thinks that he can succeed where 99% of the others have failed...even though he can't really point to any "edge" that he holds over his competition. He is optimistic about his profitability-chances in this game...but his optimism is IRRATIONAL. There is no REASON for it.

I couldn't agree with you more. Gambling addicts believe the next win is just around the corner. Bad luck, bad rides, close photos - all he needs is one break, one good score and he's set.

What addict isn't irrational?

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Testing shows that compulsive gamblers get a huge high from a win, but losing doesn't bother them. They're chasing the big one. On the other hand, smart gamblers don't get nearly the high from winning, but they absolutely detest losing.

That last part makes no sense at all. If sharp players would absolutely detest losing, they wouldn't bet (or not bet enough to make it count). They recognize it as part of the game. They know they have an edge, and can quantify it. So they can step back and be objective, about both winning and losing.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Bundy's initial trigger into the world he found himself ultimately in had nothing to do with porn, sex, or murder. His initial step into the darkness was an overwhelming belief in his own brilliance, and his ability to beat the system through his own defenses. He ultimately wanted to see just how far he could go and not get defeated by the system. He acted on his own defense once incarcerated, and while committing his crimes, he made it easier and easier to link himself to the crime. He was always playing a game against the "Man", always feeling ultimate confidence in his ability to wiggle off the hook. It's hard to argue that he didn't have some depraved view of women and sex, but it came down to a battle against the machine. He ultimately found himself in Colorado to play the ultimate life-or-death game once he concluded that Colorado's death penalty laws were the most daunting in the nation.

I think you meant Florida. Colorado doesn't execute anybody.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

I think you meant Florida. Colorado doesn't execute anybody.

My bad. he left Colorado for Florida.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

You were never a compulsive gambler or even close. It takes far longer than a month. Compulsive gamblers don't see losing as negatively as you did and that is why you caught yourself so quickly. Compulsive gamblers chase bets because they believe the big score is just around the corner. It's great that you found the sweet spot for yourself, but it doesn't seem to me you were never in any real danger of being Milch.

You're right, I was not a compulsive gambler, but I was starting to display some of the tendencies that a compulsive gambler has. I could literally feel the compulsion building up in me, it was palpable.

This is something about addiction I have trouble understanding, denial. If you get drunk every day, how do you not realize that you're an alcoholic? I guess that's a big difference between an actual addict who needs medical help and the people who fix the problem on their own.

When I was addicted to cigarettes, I knew that the only reason I smoked was because of the addiction. I've met many smokers who insist that they love smoking cigarettes, which makes no sense. Cigarettes taste like crap, make you cough, hurt your breathing, and don't get you high. The first time you smoked one, you thought it taste like crap and couldn't understand why people smoked. Once you get addicted, all of a sudden you enjoy it, because you're satisfying the craving.

I don't believe in false pleasures. If you have to get addicted to something to enjoy it, it sucks.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

I couldn't agree with you more. Gambling addicts believe the next win is just around the corner. Bad luck, bad rides, close photos - all he needs is one break, one good score and he's set.

What addict isn't irrational?

Can you add to bad luck, bad rides, close photos........bad decisions? or is that a different problem? Does the compulsive gambler ever blame themselves in the midst of their downfall? Or is there a victim mentality?

[ultracapper]

This discussion is beginning to show that there are probably 2 different types of problem gamblers.

1) Thaskalos's delusional gambler. The guy that isn't getting a buzz from his scores as much as he believes he can repeat the scores often enough to help avoid the pain of his hum-drum existence, and

2) HOH's compulsive gambler. The guy that isn't trying to repeat his scores often enough to avoid his hum-drum life, but to create a life of never ending, ever increasing, excitement.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

That last part makes no sense at all. If sharp players would absolutely detest losing, they wouldn't bet (or not bet enough to make it count). They recognize it as part of the game. They know they have an edge, and can quantify it. So they can step back and be objective, about both winning and losing.

Of course sharp players detest losing because they know something went wrong. To finish the thought, sharp players look at the loss as a learning experience. Did I select poorly? Did I bet poorly? What did I miss? Of course they recognize that losing is part of the game, but the sharp player looks to turn loses around, not just say c'est la vie and forget about it. The sharp player expects to win and is disappointed in himself when he doesn't. The solution to that is to figure out if you need to do something better.

You ever play sports? You ever have a coach that just said, oh well, we lost? The good ones use the loss to improve. You're talking something different than I am. You can detest the loss, but ultimately accept the loss and learn from it.

You always learn more from your failures than your successes. If you aren't looking at the races you lose and trying to figure out what went wrong, you're missing an opportunity.

"Great success is built on failure, frustration, even catastrophy."
~ Sumner Redstone

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

This discussion is beginning to show that there are probably 2 different types of problem gamblers.

1) Thaskalos's delusional gambler. The guy that isn't getting a buzz from his scores as much as he believes he can repeat the scores often enough to help avoid the pain of his hum-drum existence, and

2) HOH's compulsive gambler. The guy that isn't trying to repeat his scores often enough to avoid his hum-drum life, but to create a life of never ending, ever increasing, excitement.

My guess is that the A-guys beat the B-guys by a 10-1 ratio.