Aqu R 7 1/18/13 - Convocation

[FantasticDan]

Ramon has a fractured skull:

http://www.drf.com/news/aqueduct-cat...g-friday-spill

[Tom]

What would be a non-alarming drop from 50K?

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

Ramon has a fractured skull:

http://www.drf.com/news/aqueduct-cat...g-friday-spill

Oh man worse than I heard. Hope he's ok. Get better Ramon!

[moneyandland]

Originally Posted by Tom

What would be a non-alarming drop from 50K?

Any horse that drops from 50K to any other race? how about a horse that has raced ok in his last 2 fighting the pace and faltering to 3rd or 4th if that horse drops to 35K that wouldnt be alarming at all because the purse difference decrease is small compared to win chances increase

[johnhannibalsmith]

Four time winner goes from a 2x allowance/optional to a non-three life/straight/4yo./nonwinnersinceNov. condition. That's the drop, not the claiming price. That's a huge move in condition. He claims him for $50k, runs back for $30k with $22k to the winner - considering he's been in the barn for a few weeks, it's around a get even proposition. But that's what winning claiming owners that like to win races do happily. If you wanted to chart his entire history, you could get alarmed I suppose, but that move from tough $50k optionals to conditioned $30k for a break-even move with a seven-year-old doesn't get me too stirred.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by moneyandland

The alarming drop wasn't Convocation to 50K after a year off it, it was to 30K without a start after the 50K, I don't think you understand what an alarming drop is

Pletcher has Finale in for 40k tomorrow at GP .I think that is pretty alarming

[Linny]

Originally Posted by moneyandland

The fact that the horse fell down has nothing to do with anything, you guys are some hardheads, I never even mentioned it, 9 posts in and only 2 of them really address my question

I didn't use Convocation for the reasons in your first post. The drop etc was a concern and there were viable others. That said, apart from the clipped heels, there is no reason to think, in retrospect that anything was wrong with the horse.

As for riders/agents knowing if a horse has a wheel coming off... I don't know. It's really the agents job to be as aware as possible of perils like that. Every agent I know is a superb reader of the past performances and watches races like a hawk, for clues of horses going in either direction. A rider has the option of asking for a further vet exam when they are nearing the gate if the horse feels off.
No trainer sends a horse out thinking that he's going to crash that day, though some do know that they have issues that could be time bombs. The dumping we saw last year has been moderated a bit this winter.

As for the original question, the phrasing makes it appear that you believe AFTER THE RACE that there was something very wrong with the horse, and thus asked. The "hardheaded" responses are because the resondents don't think in retrospect that Convocation was a mess.

[Rise Over Run]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Pletcher has Finale in for 40k tomorrow at GP .I think that is pretty alarming

How do you figure this is alarming? He's not competitive in stakes races, and was only ever competitive in them as a 2yo. He doesn't have any allowance conditions and they're putting him in a spot where he at least has a reasonable chance to be competitive. I could see your point if they entered him for $20k over at Tampa. And on that note, I wouldn't touch this horse tomorrow at a likely price of < 2-1.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by Rise Over Run

How do you figure this is alarming? He's not competitive in stakes races, and was only ever competitive in them as a 2yo. He doesn't have any allowance conditions and they're putting him in a spot where he at least has a reasonable chance to be competitive. I could see your point if they entered him for $20k over at Tampa. And on that note, I wouldn't touch this horse tomorrow at a likely price of < 2-1.

Maybe not the most alarming drop ever, I just think they are giving up rather quickly.
I wouldn't bet him with your money but if I were in the claiming game I'd snatch him up.Think he has the potential to be a good turf sprinter.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Maybe not the most alarming drop ever, I just think they are giving up rather quickly.
I wouldn't bet him with your money but if I were in the claiming game I'd snatch him up.Think he has the potential to be a good turf sprinter.

Wait, first you find it alarming, and then you say if you were in the claiming game, you would claim the horse?

It's really not alarming, it's actually the next logical place to put a horse like this.

All of a sudden, people are freaking out over drop downs even though we have seen it forever.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

Wait, first you find it alarming, and then you say if you were in the claiming game, you would claim the horse?

It's really not alarming, it's actually the next logical place to put a horse like this.

All of a sudden, people are freaking out over drop downs even though we have seen it forever.

I took it as Alarming = Surprising .
Webster may define it differently.

I'm surprised to see him in for a 40k tag.If you say its where he belongs then I'm convinced.

[wisconsin]

I just think it's a screwed up horse, which is not to be confused with unsound.

They really don't write N4L or N3X races too much anymore, and it's been awhile since I saw 75,000 claimers on the grass. The horse has no finish on paper, so maybe this gets the job done. There's nothing to be garnered from the :47 workout, either. We know this horse has speed.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by moneyandland

Thanks for answering, I guess my feeling I got from today was that a jockey that just rides mounts unquestioning has a lot of faith in others

You act as if this is some sort of scientific endeavor and that there isn't a ton of faith involved in ALL RIDES on ALL HORSES.

If your original question was "Is there a meeting every morning between vets, trainers and jockeys where the elite jockeys are tipped off on the bad horses while the hungry scrappers are sitting there pissing in their pants knowing they will be playing Russian Roulette later that afternoon..." I would guess the answer would be no, there are no such meetings.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

.If you say its where he belongs then I'm convinced.

Placed where he could win, just what the doctor ordered

[Rise Over Run]

Won in a fairly average race for $40k claimers. Not claimed, and this horse is so far from a turf sprinter it's not funny. The one to worry about out of this one is Timeless Fashion, the 9yo gelding.