$4K claimer freaks at Finger Lakes

[FantasticDan]

Hardshell, a 4yo gelding by Songandaprayer, spent all his racing life (20 starts, 2010-12) performing inconsistently for trainer Charlton Baker on the NYRA circuit.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...045&registry=T

After being eased and fading badly in his last two starts at AQU, he was shipped up to Finger Lakes at the end of April and dropped for a bottom $4K tag. Just another falling apart horse on the scrap heap, right?

He wins the 5F race easily with an 83 Beyer. No claim.

Next race, a one mile starter allowance two weeks later.. wins easy again, 81 Beyer.

A starter allow. sprint six days later, and another laugher.. wrapped up late, he earns a 101 Beyer.

Here's how that 101 Beyer compared to other top winning Beyers from that week:

1. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - 109 - Preakness Stakes (G1) - 1 3/16 Miles - Pimlico
1. SAGINAW - 109 - Affirmed Success Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
3. AGAVE KISS - 106 - Miss Preakness Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Pimlico
3. PAYNTER - 106 - Alw 50000NC - 1 1/16 Miles - Pimlico
5. ALTERNATION - 101 - Pimlico Special (G3) - 1 3/16 Miles - Pimlico
5. HARDSHELL - 101 - Alw 5000s - 6 Furlongs - Finger Lakes

His 101 Beyer has subsequently been adjusted up to 103.

Next start was this past Saturday, an allowance/optional claiming..

Wins again, wrapped up late again, 97 Beyer.

A horse for the course? I guess we'll see.. can't imagine he won't be heading back downstate..

[Some_One]

Something they don't test for at FL? Does the trainer have a pattern like this?

[Quesmark]

It's probably just something in the water....

[toetoe]

Let's go to Mr. Calo's call:

"Hardshell comes callin'. Front and center !!!. This one together as one. How do ya like me now ? At a nice price [3/10]. Hope ya had 'm-m-m-m."

[jerry-g]

After reading the pp's lines for some time now, I realize there
is more to handicapping than meets the eye.

I think the barn was in no way concerned about the horse being
claimed due to its poor Aqua performances. The mystery to
me is why they made him the favorite and last out he only
paid 25 cents. Then they let the 2nd and 3rd place horse on
his heels to come in at boxcar odds.

[sammy the sage]

no testing for FROG at the lakes...yet...

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by jerry-g

Then they let the 2nd and 3rd place horse on
his heels to come in at boxcar odds.

When you say "they let" in reference to the runner's up, are you insinuating a fixed race? Who, exactly are "they"? Just curious.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by jerry-g

After reading the pp's lines for some time now, I realize there
is more to handicapping than meets the eye.

I think the barn was in no way concerned about the horse being
claimed due to its poor Aqua performances. The mystery to
me is why they made him the favorite and last out he only
paid 25 cents. Then they let the 2nd and 3rd place horse on
his heels to come in at boxcar odds.

The horse that finished 2nd was the third choice.

[jerry-g]

Yes he was third in the ranks and quite a spread from 25 cents to 14.10

[jerry-g]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

When you say "they let" in reference to the runner's up, are you insinuating a fixed race? Who, exactly are "they"? Just curious.

I thought it was "Prima Facia" meaning the crowd bet the horses and set the
odds. Maybe not enough people that day to affect the odds.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by jerry-g

Yes he was third in the ranks and quite a spread from 25 cents to 14.10

He was 14-1 b/c of the presence of a huge fav. If the huge fav wasn't in the race, he would have been 3-1 or 4-1.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by jerry-g

I thought it was "Prima Facia" meaning the crowd bet the horses and set the
odds. Maybe not enough people that day to affect the odds.

The public bet the favorite hot and heavy that day. Everyone else had to be a price.

[jerry-g]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

He was 14-1 b/c of the presence of a huge fav. If the huge fav wasn't in the race, he would have been 3-1 or 4-1.

Thanks Mike. Now that does make sense to me. I've not studied
the how and why off odds. I should ask more questions about
the stuff I find strange. So the 1-4 made the odds on the other
horses stay up there.

[Tom]

A 103 Beyer!?

Some here would say he should have run in the Stephan Foster.
Definitely a candidate for the Whitney.

[Linny]

When one horse is heavily bet, all the others' prices are artificially high. Watch the board in a race with a heavy favorite that gets bet hard early. Lets say he opens at 1-9. Everyone else (typically it's a fairly short field) will be double digits. As the fav drifts to 1-5 or so, the others come down and usually a clear second and third choice are established. A horse that looks interesting at 21-1 with 10 MTP might not look so good at 5-1 as they load the gate.

As for Hardshell, he burned me a time or two in the winter and he proves that old adage that horses that simply outclass their rivals sometimes do things they wouldn't or couldn't when facing better horses. Typically you see it in the classy allowance/high claiming type that runs Beyers in the 95-100 range but when he faces stakes runners he runs 6th with an 84 while the winner runs a 90. Left Bank was that type for a while before he finally broke through. I'll be curious to see what a horse like Saginaw does if spotted with true graded type horses.